U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Monfils

After two previous quarterfinal appearances, Gael Monfils is finally into the semis of the U.S. Open for the first time in his career. Standing in his way on Friday, however, is world No. 1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic.

Novak Djokovic and Gael Monfils will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers at the ATP level when they battle for a place in in the U.S. Open final on Friday.

Djokovic is sweeping the head-to-head series 12-0, including 11-0 on hard courts. Their only meeting since 2014 came earlier this season in the Toronto semifinals, with the top-ranked Serb prevailing 6-3, 6-2. Monfils has been competitive in one of their two previous U.S. Open showdowns; he lost a controversial 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(5), 0-6, 7-5 thriller in the 2005 first round before suffering a more comprehensive 7-6(1), 6-2, 6-1 beatdown in the 2010 quarterfinals.

Having stumbled in the quarters on two occasions prior to this U.S. Open, Monfils has gotten over the hump in New York to be a part of the final four for the first time ever. Especially impressive is the fact that the 12th-ranked Frenchman has stormed through this fortnight without dropping a single set in routine wins over Gilles Muller, Jan Satral, Nicolas Almagro, Marcos Baghdatis, and Lucas Pouille. Monf wins 2
But if you think the No. 10 seed has played fewer sets than anyone else in Flushing Meadows, think again. Djokovic’s trek through Flushing Meadows has been remarkably fortuitous–and it was just what the doctor ordered for a player who had been dealing with arm issues since the Rio Olympics and missed the Cincinnati Masters. In addition to wins over Jerzy Janowicz (four sets) and Kyle Edmund (straight), the No. 1 seed has gotten two retirements (Mikhail Youzhny and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga) and a walkover (from Jiri Vesely).
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Now Djokovic faces another opponent whose career has been plagued by injuries, but Monfils has stayed healthy and focused in 2016. His record stands at an awesome 40-11 and he could reach No. 5 in the race to London even if he loses on Friday.

“I love watching Gael,” Djokovic commented. “He’s one of the few players that I will definitely pay a ticket to watch. He’s very charismatic; plays with a smile, enjoys tennis. But also, he seems more focused at this time of his career. Especially on the hard court this year maybe he’s playing the best tennis he ever played. He’s very consistent. He hasn’t dropped a set; that says a lot about the level he’s on.”

The jury is still out on Djokovic’s level given his alarming lack of time on court this fortnight, but early returns were especially encouraging in his fourth-round rout of Edmund. There is no reason to think physical problems will suddenly reappear for a well-rested Djokovic, who should extend his head-to-head dominance of Monfils to 13-0 without too much trouble.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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33 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Monfils

  1. Gael is 2-5 vs Top 10 this year and hasn’t faced a player in the Top 20 at the USO until now. Nole schooled him in TO.

    Djokovic in three losing 12-14 games.

    • Yeah, agree…Nole will have an easy job…he may not want to push too hard though and will probably let LaMonf win 8-10 games just to get some needed match practice…

      • I actually think that Nishi might be a better challenge in the final than Stanford but I don’t think either have a very good shot at beating him (unless it’s uncharacteristically hot on Sunday a la 2014).

        • Nah Stanimal has more belief and weapons plus big match experience. It will likely be a better final if it’s Stan vs Novak instead of kei vs Novak. Not saying kei couldn’t win though I just think given Stan’s past grand slam success, he would likely be a tougher matchup in the final for Novak. That’s if Nole gets there though. It seems like Novak should dust Monfils up due to the head to head and that may happen but I think la monf will push him. I don’t see an easy match for Novak. This will be the toughest test yet for Novak as Monfils is playing his best tennis ever imo. If he keeps this up he could be top 5 by the season’s end. He’s due to hit #8 if he loses this match and #6 in the race to London. I’m sure he will make the year end finals barring an injury. A pretty impressive aspect of his fantastic season is that he’s played such focused and great tennis and was still out for RG and has had some injuries and illnesses and has missed some of the year which made him rusty and lose Wimbledon first round yet he’s at the ranking he’s at right now. I’m really loving la monf this season. I will be rooting ten million percent for Monfils when he takes on Djokovic. I have Nole in four but would love to see Monfils take him out. Like I said this will be Nole’s toughest test so he will need to be ready. The thing that worries me though is Monfils maybe not having enough belief and getting off to a bad start and maybe playing nervous and defensive. He’s got nothing to lose though so I’m thinking he fights hard and continues his form and pushes Novak in this one. Allez Gael!!

          • Stan’s self-belief >> Kei’s. Stan once also said that his head to head against Novak in BO3 is pretty bad but he’s played Novak really well in slams and believes that he can beat anyone when he is on his game.

            Plus, his brand of tennis is more ‘imposing’.

            Not sure where Stan’s head is though. Haven’t even seen his matches except for some highlights so relying on the comments of some of the good posters here. One can tell Stan is not riding wave of good form but you never know. He may well peak now. If he beats Nishi, that would mean he is ready.

  2. Djokovic in 3. Love LaMonf but hugging the baseline and taking the ball early does not come naturally to him. It does to Djokovic and whatever ailed him coming in to the tournament is behind him now, imo.

  3. Seems like most of you haven’t watched most of Gaels matches this year !
    He ran out of steam last time (faced Goffin, Raonic and two more opponents) he faced Novak but this time he has conserved a lot of energy. This is probably the match that could turn around his career and the way he served against Pouille is an optimistic sign. He has also been quite consistent. Most people probably expected him to lose half the matches he played this year because they are probably not ready to accept that Gael can be serious and a dangerous player therefore they keep predicting against him.

    Prediction : Gael in 4

    P.S if he loses I am done hahah

    • I am also giving a set to Gael… just hope he avoids that annoying backhand junk-balling down the centre of the court. Don’t know why he does that :s is he just fond of letting his opponents go for big shots so that he may display his acrobatic skills?! Anyway, he’s been focused lately so I am counting on a good performance from him.

      I think Gael will show some good variation and provide competition.

      • I would like to think that Monfils will make a match of it. He has never beaten Novak, but a player has to go out there with some belief to have a chance. There is always a first time.

        Novak seems to be more himself with the time off he had in the early rounds. It may have been what he needed to get over what was ailing him. He is always tough to beat when he gets to the semis of a slam. I expect him to come out playing well.

        I think this Monfils is capable of taking a set off Novak. He has to come out and play like he is in it to win it. That’s half the battle. What I do not want to see is a repeat of what happened with Tsonga. At least go out there and give it your best. I am expecting Monfils to do that. He’s got nothing to lose and should just try to go for his shots. He’s got the athletic ability and talent to make this a match.

  4. If the real Nole turns up ,no contest.But Monfils is in best form of his life, its a Slam semi, would love to see another 5 setter.

  5. I am kind of looking forward to Gael-Novak…. have been impressed with Gael’s attitude lately and I think he will try his best today and we know he’s got some serious weapons. He did start well in Toronto but he’d played with a dozen matches in a row coming into that match with Novak.

    It won’t be an easy match at all in my opinion.

  6. Tiggy:
    Wow, totally forgot both Toronto semis were the exact same matchups! Nole abd Nishi won in TO (my picks today) but Tiggy going with the Big Baby this time around.

    “Djokovic and Monfils played one semifinal in Toronto, and Wawrinka and Nishikori played the other.

    “One thing Djokovic is very good at is making someone who is playing the tennis of his life … stop playing the tennis of his life.”

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/09/novak-djokovic-kei-nishikori-gael-monfils-stan-wawrinka-us-open-semifinals/60881/

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