U.S. Open semifinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Nadal vs. Gasquet

A two-team panel makes its picks for the men’s singles semifinals on Saturday at the U.S. Open.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (9) Stanislas Wawrinka
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Steen Kirby (Tennis East Coast) – Stan the Man continued his career year by crushing a listless Andy Murray in straights, while Djokovic needed four sets to take care of Mikhail Youzhny, cruising in the first couple before a minor hiccup in the third. This match is, of course, a rematch of some of the best tennis of the year in Melbourne, where Djoker prevailed 12-10 in the fifth set. In that match, Djokovic was terrible for the first one and a half sets and Wawrinka was redlining it almost the whole time, but the world No. 1 still prevailed…just as he has in 10 of their other 12 meetings, including a straight-set win (with a retirement) at last summer’s U.S. Open. Wawrinka probably takes a set in this one, but unless Djokovic comes out as listless as Murray did, he should advance. Djokovic 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, 6-4.

Ricky Dimon – Djokovic-Wawrinka at the Aussie Open is arguably the match of the year to date, producing inspirational tennis from both men once the Serb woke up late in the second set en route to a 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7(5), 12-10 triumph. Wawrinka has endured his fair share of heartbreak on the court in 2013, but he is back in peak form when it matters most. The Swiss got past Berydch–who had been playing great ball, himself–then clobbered Murray. Djokovic is playing far better than he did in Cincinnati (he actually played well in Montreal despite losing to Nadal), but he has labored through a few brief walkabouts in New York. The result should be a competitive affair on Saturday, but this is Wawrinka’s first major semifinal and Djokovic is far more accustomed to this kind of situation. Djokovic 6-3, 6-7, 6-1, 6-4.

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(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (8) Richard Gasquet
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Steen – Gasquet accomplished some career milestones by reaching his second Grand Slam semifinal (Wimbledon 2007), his first semi at the U.S. Open. He avoided a collapse by beating David Ferrer in five sets on Wednesday and now he has to play the most dominant player in the draw whom he has never beaten as a professional (0-10). But they haven’t played since 2011. Nadal drubbed Tommy Robredo in the quarters and while Gasquet had his backhand firing against Ferrer, it’s hard to expect him to even get a set here. Nadal 6-4, 6-4, 6-2.

Ricky – Not only is Nadal a perfect 10-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series, but he has also won 14 consecutive sets against Gasquet dating back to the 2008 Toronto Masters. Gasquet is playing stellar tennis this fortnight and he showed rare mental strength against Ferrer, but he needed 10 total sets to get though his last two matches–including four hours and 40 minutes against Raonic. Sure he has a lot of recovery time, but anything less than 100 percent is a death wish for anyone–not just Gasquet–against Nadal right now. The Spaniard is undefeated on hard courts in 2013, he has dropped only one set at the U.S. Open, and he looked borderline unbeatable against Robredo. Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2.
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41 Comments on U.S. Open semifinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Nadal vs. Gasquet

  1. Djokovic as usual talking the talk.

    “The way he’s been playing he’s very confident, but I know how to play him. Hard court is the surface that, as I said, is my most successful surface. I have played him already here twice in the finals. I know what I need to do.”

    nny: I think you are being overly concerned. IMO Djokovic didn’t win that match: Stan lost it. I think he was emotionally and physically exhausted but still made a pretty good fist of the match. Go to the USO results page and take a look at the set by set stats and you might feel better πŸ™‚

    Here is the link
    http://preview.tinyurl.com/68oldm

    Ditto Rafa’s match
    http://preview.tinyurl.com/37voluq

    I disagree Djokovic is in great shape btw. He outlasted Stan in that department but he was showing signs of fatigue and mentally he’s all over the place.

    Rafa has paced himself well for the big push. πŸ™‚

    • ed,

      You are my saving grace! I did check out those links. It’s very enlightening. I think when you watch a match, sometimes your perception can be skewed. Also, I got up late and did not even see the first set. So it does help to review stats, especially set by set.

      I will say that once Stan got that thigh injury, I thought that he wasn’t going to win. Up to that point, I really thought he had a chance to pull it off. But I do think in the fifth set the injury was bothering him and also physical exhaustion. I think that the early game in the fifth set in which he had to fight just over twenty minutes to hold his serve, just did him in mentally. It was only one break in the fifth that gave Djoker the win.

      They played some of Djoker’s post match presser. That’s where I heard those comments you referenced. I am really over hearing him going on like that. I want Rafa to shut his big mouth once and for all.

      This is why I come here. I need other opinions and points of view. Another perspective. After I thought it over a while, I decided that this victory for Djoker in the semis could go one of two ways. Either it will give him a big boost of confidence that he got a win against an opponent who was outplaying him, or he will come out and still have the same problems with mental concentration and focus that have plagued him all year. Despite the new coach and the new input and feedback that he was blabbing about, he is still having these mental lapses. I don’t know that this goes away overnight. Rafa went through something like that in 2011. It took him a while to sort it all out.

      I hope that you are right with Rafa pacing himself. I would like to believe that he didn’t play his best because it was not necessary. No disrespect to Gasquet, but I just did not believe that he could ever beat Rafa. Rafa also said in his presser that the windy conditions were very tricky.

      Thanks for helping me to see this in another light! πŸ™‚

    • ed, I agree.. We all expected Rafa to blow Reeshard off the court, 2, 1 & 3 but Rafa wasn’t on fire yesterday, guess he wasn’t feeling the ball. Djoker was just awful and anyone with half a game seems to be able to challenge him these days.

      I hope Rafa will be more fired up for the final. Maybe, he wanted to give Djoker a false sense of security.

  2. I just want Rafa to kick Novak’s ass and wipe that smugness away, am really getting tired of it.”I know how to play him”. Ehm, Rafa doesn’t know how to play you? If you know how to play him, what happened at RG, Montreal and all the 21 times he has beaten you? Oh I get it, those were flukes, the REAL results are the 15 times you have beaten him…………

    Beat him, please Rafa.

  3. Did you guys notice how Novak, after the first set, started running around his BH to hit a forehand? His money shot, DHBH, totally deserted him yesterday and it’s been leaking tonnes of errors all season. I wonder what’s up with that?

  4. To me, the key to the final will be how each handles their backhands. If Novak re-finds his BHDTL (which has been MIA all tournament and then some), Rafa will be in for it. If Rafa continues using his BH offensively (as opposed to his usual defensive stance) as he has been doing all tournament, Nole will be in for it. Unlike Nole, who is running around his BH because of lack of confidence in it, Rafa is NOT running around his like he did early in the season. Actually, Djokovic and all players who have made it a tactic to pepper Rafa’s BH have done Rafa a favour, it’s been good practice!

    • We need to also keep in perspective that this is 75% of 2011 Nole, he has lost many matches this year which were tight (IW against Delpo, RG against Rafa, Rome against Berdy, Madrid against Grigor, Wimby against Murray, Montreal against Rafa, Cincy against Iser). All those 7 matches he could have won, in many of them he was in a position to win, yet he lost. So mentally he is a bit off and I am sure Rafa knows it too well. Also I bet Rafa did see parts of his SF match to see that he struggled to even put a hobbled Stan away, I think Rafa will be confident. All I hope is he does notstand like 10 feet away from basline and that he is agressive from the tart and plays inside the baseline all tim

  5. Also come to think of it, If Rafa has to win his 13th GS and 2nd USO, it is better he defeats Nole and wins it. If it was Wawrinka, peple wold not have attached enough credence to the won nd always would have put * aaround his win.

  6. Why do you guys persist in going to the Dysfunctional Tennis Forum. Join me on TalkTennis where the debate is more balanced. Sure there are Rafa haters there but there are also a lot of Rafa fans. You can start a thread on anything you want to get off your chest or that interests you.

    Give it a try. I won’t give up, because I’m missing you all there.

    • Please give me a link to TalkTennis, @clayqueen. Tennistalk was my default home with tennis-x blog as the alternate simply to get another perspective and truth be told, needle the Fedfans over there now and again!

      But honestly, I am no longer enjoying reading/posting on tennis-x blog, it just ain’t funny any more. I think it’s because Rafa’s winning and the angst over there is all too real now. Nothing funny about bearing witness to a human being in full blown despair, truth be told. It was funny when they were all giddy with the hope that Rafa’s injury would sideline him forever. Now it’s just raw despair…….too pathetic for my taste.

      Of course Tenngrand is now my default home but I still want some place else to listen to, so glad if you could give me the link, clayqueen……….

      • I mean, even the blog contributors are having full-blown Rafa-hate meltdowns over there………………beyond cringe-inducing.

    • Naddy. When TT closed down I tried to register at TalkTennis as many of you were talking of going there. I was getting to grips with a new computer and made a mess of several attempts and was refused, I sent emails asking for help but got no response. The next time I tried I was told my email address was banned as spam. πŸ™

      • ed, what a shame. Try with another email address because some of them are accused of having several monikers so it’s possible. I guess the problems with the new computer must have contributed to your email address being seen as a spam.

  7. clayqueen@September 8, 2013 at 8:41 am
    —We all expected Rafa to blow Reeshard off the court—-

    I voted ’11-13 games to Gasquet’ (see my comment of September 6, 2013 at 3:01 pm). Gasquet won 12 games. The result of the match is OK for me.

    • augusta, I also voted for Gasquet taking 11-13 games which is in line with their previous encounters but Rafa was not on his game yesterday and I have to say Gasquet was a little bit tighter than he was against Ferrer, but then Feru is not Rafa.

    • You won’t need to keep checking your email because they don’t contact you unless you get a PM then whoever sends it will let you know they are sending it.

  8. I did not see the Rafa match, how much would yo guys give Rafa/ 10?

    I read many comments saying Rafa was not crisp, was dropping balls short..was it due to the wind?

    Djoko who did not ply that great either I think will get a 6.5 /10.

  9. It will be really huge if Rafa beats Novak in a HC slam final on USO – his least fav surface , I just hope it happens and I cant wait to live that moment :-).

      • Moreover, if Rafa wins, he will be the only current player with multiple wins at three Slams with different surfaces: clay, grass and HC. More importantly, it would really sow seeds of doubt in Djokovic going into the Australian Open, a slow HC which suits Rafa’s game better (a la IW) than the faster US Open surface.

      • Yes Augusta, but 2010 Djoko was ot the Djoko post 2011. Beating him now will be far far more huge and yes it can put a scar on Djoko vs Rafa.. Rafa really needs to go for the kill this time..go Rafa Go.

        I am reading his book Rafa My story and the adrenaline and power of concentration and will to win hopefully take him to victory. I am excited aat the prospect of Rafa beating Novak at USO if it comes to actually pass.

  10. Via @genny_ss: The RFET offered Rafa a private jet to bring him to Madrid for Davis Cup, but he’s rejected it due to Spain’s economical situation (@calvonbauer)

  11. Having read Rafas back and just finishing it, the thing that is most concerning is ‘The fear of winning’ to Rafa.Will he be able to close out the match when he is in a position to win against his biggest rival. He admits nerves take him over completely and it did him in in Wimby 2008 (could not close out match in 4th having match points ), RG 2013 (could not close out match in 4th serving for it at 6-5 ), AO 2012 (lost after leading the match in 5th up 4-2). Add to this Djokos tendency to go for broke when he is down.

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