U.S. Open semifinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Nadal vs. Gasquet

A two-team panel makes its picks for the men’s singles semifinals on Saturday at the U.S. Open.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (9) Stanislas Wawrinka
 
Steen Kirby (Tennis East Coast) – Stan the Man continued his career year by crushing a listless Andy Murray in straights, while Djokovic needed four sets to take care of Mikhail Youzhny, cruising in the first couple before a minor hiccup in the third. This match is, of course, a rematch of some of the best tennis of the year in Melbourne, where Djoker prevailed 12-10 in the fifth set. In that match, Djokovic was terrible for the first one and a half sets and Wawrinka was redlining it almost the whole time, but the world No. 1 still prevailed…just as he has in 10 of their other 12 meetings, including a straight-set win (with a retirement) at last summer’s U.S. Open. Wawrinka probably takes a set in this one, but unless Djokovic comes out as listless as Murray did, he should advance. Djokovic 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, 6-4.

Ricky Dimon – Djokovic-Wawrinka at the Aussie Open is arguably the match of the year to date, producing inspirational tennis from both men once the Serb woke up late in the second set en route to a 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7(5), 12-10 triumph. Wawrinka has endured his fair share of heartbreak on the court in 2013, but he is back in peak form when it matters most. The Swiss got past Berydch–who had been playing great ball, himself–then clobbered Murray. Djokovic is playing far better than he did in Cincinnati (he actually played well in Montreal despite losing to Nadal), but he has labored through a few brief walkabouts in New York. The result should be a competitive affair on Saturday, but this is Wawrinka’s first major semifinal and Djokovic is far more accustomed to this kind of situation. Djokovic 6-3, 6-7, 6-1, 6-4.

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(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (8) Richard Gasquet
 
Steen – Gasquet accomplished some career milestones by reaching his second Grand Slam semifinal (Wimbledon 2007), his first semi at the U.S. Open. He avoided a collapse by beating David Ferrer in five sets on Wednesday and now he has to play the most dominant player in the draw whom he has never beaten as a professional (0-10). But they haven’t played since 2011. Nadal drubbed Tommy Robredo in the quarters and while Gasquet had his backhand firing against Ferrer, it’s hard to expect him to even get a set here. Nadal 6-4, 6-4, 6-2.

Ricky – Not only is Nadal a perfect 10-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series, but he has also won 14 consecutive sets against Gasquet dating back to the 2008 Toronto Masters. Gasquet is playing stellar tennis this fortnight and he showed rare mental strength against Ferrer, but he needed 10 total sets to get though his last two matches–including four hours and 40 minutes against Raonic. Sure he has a lot of recovery time, but anything less than 100 percent is a death wish for anyone–not just Gasquet–against Nadal right now. The Spaniard is undefeated on hard courts in 2013, he has dropped only one set at the U.S. Open, and he looked borderline unbeatable against Robredo. Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2.
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29 Comments on U.S. Open semifinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Nadal vs. Gasquet

    • Did not see the match..though he is 2 sets up..the scoreline is too tight..which means he is not playing great..vamosrafa..what is working and what is not?

  1. I hope he plays this set really well….the forehand is off sometimes and he is not going for much from his forehand now…

    may be the two day hiatus broke his rhythm…get it back,rafa

  2. Rafa’s forehand is not penetrating, as a result Reeshie is having fun returning Rafa’s shots. The funny thing is Reeshie’s BH is penetrating, so what is Rafa’s problem, why aren’t his shots troubling Reeshie? Rafa’s points are coming more from Reeshie’s UEs than winners from Rafa…………

  3. sanju, the backhand has been working pretty well so happy about that… the forehand has been an issue…he has been generally passive with his forehand , i mean not really passive but not like the lethal forehand we have been seeing from him of late… he is hitting better in set 3 though !

    Serve is ok, ROS is ok…not vintage rafa, but doing a fine job

  4. the destructive DTL forehand and inside-out forehand have not been there consistently enough today.. I hope they are 100% ready for the final because rafa needs them working at 100% to be beat djokovic….

  5. And the winner is – Rafa!
    Vamoooooos!!!!!!

    Rafa played well enough to win the match. The good thing is that he won the match much quicker than the first finalist. Rafa’s SF lasted 140 minutes (the first SF lasted 249 min).

    Winners (set 1 + 2 + 3 = total)
    Rafa: 13 + 11 + 11 =35
    Gasquet: 9 + 8 + 9 = 26

    UE ((set 1 + 2 + 3 = total)
    Rafa: 10 + 12 + 2 = 24
    Gasquet: 8 + 12 + 12 = 32

  6. So No 1 vs No 2 both in mens and womens as per the script. It couldn’t have gotten better

    And in both mens and womens, the match is wide open..either can win it.

  7. I’ve been hiding behind the sofa for both matches today. It sounds Rafa didn’t play at top form and Djoker was good? I’m really nervous for the final. Ricky, what’s your pick?

  8. I was concerned that Gasquet wouldn’t play well enough to force Rafa to play really well. This was certainly not Rafa at his best. I wondered if the two days off disrupted his rhythm. I would have preferred that he only had one day off. Rafa does better when he plays in a certain rhythm.

    This was good enough to beat Gasquet, but not great from Rafa. I don’t think he gains any advantage with Djoker playing the more difficult five set match. Djoker has had so many easy matches and hasn’t had to raise his level of play. He hasn’t been challenged. Stan took it to him in their match. Djoker was playing from behind for so much of the match. But he managed to do it in the moments that counted, the crucial moments in the match. I think this match is going to give him a great deal of confidence. Rafa always seems to get big confidence from the tougher matches. Djoker even said that Stan played better. But he still managed to get the win. That will help him going into the finals. Djoker is in great shape. This match won’t take much out of him. Plus he gets a day off.

    I kind of wish that Rafa had an opponent that would push him a little more. I just hope that he brings his best in the final. He will need it. Rafa doesn’t need to conserve energy. He had one tough match with Kohls in the fourth round. The last two were easy.

    There is a lot on the line for both of them in the final. I would like Rafa to beat Djoker again in a hard court final. If he wins then he will be only 120 points behind Djoker. I think that’s right. He could easily get the #1 ranking after this. I don’t want Djoker taking any more slam finals from Rafa. He got three in a row and that was really hard to watch.

    I am going to be very nervous before the final. I haven’t been really stressed out during this tournament. That’s unusual, but a lot of it had to do with how Rafa was playing. Also once he avoided Isner, I fet a whole lot better! Then he even avoided Fed. So a tough draw turned out to be pretty easy.

    I know that Djoker didn’t play great throughout that match. But he did get the win. So he can still bring the goods when it counts. Rafa will simply have to come out blasting. Much better than he played today. I hope he is saving his best for the final.

  9. On vb some of the people are starting with this business of saying that they thought Rafa was limping on the court. This kind of thing really drives me absolutely crazy! Then they take that unconfirmed sighting and then start discussing Rafa taking anti-inflammatories for the pain.

    I don’t know why this has to keep coming up. Rafa has looked really good. But when he doesn’t play outstanding tennis, then this stuff starts being thrown around. Then others said that they didn’t see him limping. I don’t know why people have to start speculating.

    Rafa knows that it’s a war when he plays Djoker. I don’t blame him for saying he would like to play someone else. I read the transcript of his presser on another site. He is always honest about everything. I refuse to worry about the knee. I am just going to assume that he is okay. He may be feeling it after all the tennis he has played since he came back. He will do his best as he always does when he gets to a final.

    On tennis-x, they are already discussing the points and what will happen should Djoker win or Rafa win. Who will be #1, when, how, whatever. Even talking about the 2014 AO. That’s getting too far ahead for me.

    I am going to be very nervous on Monday. For now I want to relax and just be happy that Rafa is in another final.

    • @nny, they ran Novak’s post match presser over at tennis-x blog where he owned up to being coached from the stands and says the Umpire was right to cite him for it. Not a word from the “usual suspects” about this in the comments section, dead silence. Can you imagine the melodrama if it had been Rafa? I am actually beginning to suspect the anti-Rafa vitriol is encouraged there for a reason on that site: to drive up traffic!

      Excellent business sense…………….

      • I wondered how they would take it over in hater world! After all the garbage I have read about Rafa being coached, now there’s Djoker admitting it to the world! And not a word from the usual suspects? Typical! Hypocrites all!

    • Oh NNY, I think we Rafans are an over concerned and insecure lot . Please ignore all comments about the knee etc. What has to happen will happen and I hope Rafa wins, he deserves it after all.

      I dont think Djoko will walk out of the semifial feeling any more confident. Stan lost it, Djoko did not win it (remember the DF in tiebreak, Stan being up 4-2 in 2nd etc). We always knew in best of 5, neither Stan or Gasquet could have withstood Rafa or Nole, finally their endurance would pull them through. But the fcat that Djoko had some 20 plus BP chances and coultake just 3 is very telling, isnt it?

      • Sanju,

        Thank you for reminding me of that significant stat about all the break chances that Djoker was unable to convert. At the time when the commentators pointed it out, that really shocked me. I remember how concerned we were when Rafa had that problem against Kohls. But to be unable to do it in a semi, is even more concerning.

        I well remember that DF from Stan. That was very costly. It was strange to see Djoker fighting to stay in the match in that second set. He got a little bit lucky there.

        I thought that Stan’s thigh injury could have been very costly. He gamely went on after getting it taped off court, but I wondered if he could last if it went to a fifth set. It sure didn’t help his chances. He really played his heart out. The crowd gave him an incredible ovation at the end. Well deserved!

        I noticed at one point when Stan just raised his arms to get the crowd going and then Djoker looked at him as if he was jealous. LIke – how dare you play to the crowd! So then he started doing the same thing! Copy cat!

        I do think that some Rafa fans get overly concerned about his knee. I just don’t like to see it brought up right before a final. I have been pretty calm throughout this tournament, but the nerves are going to hit me on Monday. This is it! The big match!

        I so want Rafa to win. For so many reasons.

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