U.S. Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Istomin, Monfils vs. Muller

Rafael Nadal will kick off his U.S. Open campaign when he takes the court against Denis Istomin for a rematch of a 2010 affair in Flushing Meadows. Monday’s first-round schedule also includes Gael Monfils and Gilles Muller.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. Denis Istomin

Nadal and Istomin will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers and for the second time at the U.S. Open when they clash in round one at the season’s final Grand Slam on Monday afternoon. All four of their previous meetings have gone Nadal’s way and he is 10-1 in total sets against Istomin. Their 2010 night-session showdown in New York City oozed entertainment from start to finish, but the Spaniard still managed to get the job done in straight sets with a 6-2, 7-6(5), 7-5 victory. It has since been one-way traffic for Nadal, who cruised 6-2, 6-2, 6-0 at the 2012 French Open and 6-1, 6-0 at the 2014 Miami Masters.

Because of a wrist injury, the world No. 5 has played only two tournaments since withdrawing in the middle of Roland Garros. His comeback at the Rio Olympics did not disappoint, as Nadal won the doubles gold medal with Marc Lopez and finished fourth in singles. Obviously less than 100 percent the very next week in Cincinnati, the 14-time slam champion dropped his third-round match to Borna Coric 6-1, 6-3. Istomin’s 2016 record stands at a dreadful 7-20 and he has not won a tournament match at the ATP level since his Wimbledon opener against Nicolas Almagro. The 107th-ranked Uzbek is likely once again head for another straight-set beatdown at Nadal’s hands.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(10) Gael Monfils vs. Gilles Muller

Monfils has a big opportunity to gain ranking points at this U.S. Open; in fact, he will add to his total if he simply wins his opener on Monday. The Frenchman, who reached the quarterfinals in 2014, retired during first-round action last summer against Illya Marchenko. Physical problems continue to plague Monfils, but when healthy this season he has been outstanding. The world No. 12 boasts a 35-11 record for his 2016 campaign and this summer is already highlighted by the most significant title of his career in Washington, D.C.
Monfils wins 1
Up first for Monfils is a third career showdown against Muller. The 33-year-old Luxembourgian prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(4) last season in Montreal before Monfils evened the head-to-head series by prevailing 7-5, 6-0 a few months ago on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo. Among Muller’s past U.S. Open exploits are a first-round upset of Andy Roddick 11 years ago, a quarterfinal run in 2008, and a fourth-round performance in 2011. As for this year, the world No. 37 is 27-18 with grass-court runner-up showings in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and Newport. But this bad first-round draw for Muller will likely be too tough unless Monfils–for whatever reason–is struggling physically.

Pick: Monfils in 4

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36 Comments on U.S. Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Istomin, Monfils vs. Muller

  1. I am out at the moment and trying to read the comments on Rafa’s match. I should have changed my schedule so that I could watch it.

    Score updates?

    • Uh oh! Now my live stream isn’t working.

      So now it’s all even. I can’t see it. Until I get home I will have to check the live scores and rely on commentary here.

  2. I checked the live score and Rafa won the second set!

    Okay, now close it out in three sets!

    I saw that Monfils is having an easier time of it against Muller. Tiafoe up two sets against Isner and in a tb in the third set!
    Go Tiafoe!

  3. Doing enough to hand on to his serve..come on Rafa, move up a gear and get the break. The forehand needs to improve here. It is vital to finish the match feeling well about it.

    • I got home in time to see the last few games of Rafa’s match. I did not see enough to give me a sense as to how well he played, but it’s a straight set win!

      Way to go, Rafa!

      On court interview with Rafa!

  4. Explosive second serve to the body, aggressive backhand CC into the open court, forehand inside in finish! That forehand was struck hard but it still landed in the service box ! SO much was the amount of spin on it….sick

  5. Rafa ends the match with a well-struck forehand DTL! he is pumped.

    Lots of room for improvement in that forehand but a decent performance overall.

    He let the intensity slip away in the second set so need to take care of that as well.

    Rafa changed his ROS positioning too, esp on the ad court as he went further back to return. He has options at his disposal so he can tinker.

    Who’s next?! VAMOS

    • They just showed the shot of the day! Wicked vintage DTL forehand from Rafa to break serve! That was sweet to see!

      Cahill thinks Rafa was hitting the forehand decent, thought he had some lapses in the second set and istomin played better, but overall positive assessment of Rafa’s first match.

      At least Rafa has opponents who will give him rallies so he can get the rhythm and timing on his shots. No big servers until Raonic!

        • vr,

          Based on your comments while live blogging, it seems that you think Rafa needs to work on the forehand. He needs to have that forehand firing in order to do well. The cc backhand has been very good, but the forehand is the money shot.

          At least Rafa doesn’t have to worry about a big server in the early rounds. If he can get through the first week, then by the time he has to face Raonic then he should be ready.

          • Rafa’s COACH says that Rafa has to re-educate his left wrist. (Source: EL ESPANOL, August 28, 2016; translation into English: on Rafa’s page)

          • Agreed NNY.. without his forehand, he can’t beat his top rivals. His forehand is not bad but he is lacking confidence but the good thing is he is making gradual progress and he also believes that.

            Interestingly, I read that Toni and Roig believe Rafa must hit his forehand a bit differently to protect the wrist more. I wonder the more use of across-the-body finishes it associated with that! I think it is a combination of factors related to guarding the wrist and getting more aggressive.

            Rafa’s changed his serve position a bit. He has moved closer to the center line and got that element of throwing up-the-middle flat serves somewhat back… I think he shouldn’t move too far from the centre line because then he is just relying on sliders out-wide and body serves but the serves are mostly coming in towards this opponents so hitting that corner of the T is not too probable. Great returners like Murray and Novak will start reading body serves and it will get tough esp with his forehand not totally on fire.

            All in all, I would like to point out one thing: Rafa’s game has more ‘confusion’ at the moment and I mean this in a positive way. As long as he has control over what he is doing and is confident about execution, his game is going to create more confusion for his opponents. He tinkers with his serve positioning through matches. He moves backwards and forwards with regards to second serve return positioning. He is flattening out so many backhands and injects pace that does serious damage. In terms of serving and receiving, he has more options than ever and I do feel his second serve has never been harder to attack than it is now. Why the % of 2nd serve pts won is not reflecting it? Because his forehand is not what it can be and he is making errors.

            The next match will be important. GO Rafa!

          • And lastly, all the talk about Rafa no longer having the game to win slams are hogwash. To me he has EVERY damn weapon do win a slam on any surface and being 30 means nothing as far as his game shots are concerned. The movement is still one of the best in the game. The main concern in injuries and the resistance power of his body. THAT is the issue! A younger Rafa could recover and regenerate at an abnormal rate I suppose but I am not sure about the 30 yr old Rafa. I hope injuries spare him for a couple of years.

          • (AT 9:08 AM)

            As for the wrist issue, Rafa & Toni said:
            ¤¤ Rafa: “…I’ve got some automatisms for hitting the ball wrong to protect me from the pain & now I have to GET RID OF these bad habits that I’ve acquiring to avoid the pain…”
            Tony: ” In Rio he was [hitting the FH] very carefully. He was correcting gestures all the time not to speed up & force all the way, blocking the wrist more often than usual. Ultimately, that’s not the natural shot. When you want to restart again & play as you were doing BEFORE you have to REDO the movements that have been previously corrected to protect the wrist…” ¤¤ (EL ESPANOL, August 28, 2016; translated by genny_ss)

          • The adjustments he is taking about won’t be noticeable unless you watch a close-up slow-mo reply or something. The more confident he starts feeling about his wrist the easier it will be for him. However, one bad day for the wrist and it will be a disaster for confidence.

          • Yep, I have confidence that Rafa will win a slam soon; he’s too good not to win some more slams.

            Looking at the field, even when Djoko wasnt playing that well, he still managed to fight his way through to win it in the end (FO for eg). If Rafa does the same, he has every chance to win too considering Djoko isnt playing great tennis at the moment and he’s also having some injury woes.

            They’re all getting older, Murray too hence he’s feeling fatigue and skipping Toronto. The next and next next gen are not ready to take over from them yet so they still have time to win some more slams.

            The big four are just that good that even when not playing well, they still are able to fight their way through the draw to reach the later stages to tough it out among themselves to win. I must add in Delpo too where mental toughness is concerned. (DELPO should be included with them as the Big Five if not for his wrist injuries).

  6. Rafa has a large and close-knit extended family. He said in his interview in Spanish that 32 (!) members of his extended family are with him in New York! 🙂

  7. Rafa said in his on-court interview:
    “I played a solid match for a lot of time. There was a tough moment in the second set but I think I resisted well and I am very happy for the victory. He is always a dangerous player.”

    • A demonstration of not only what his forehand is capable of but also of what he BELIEVES he can do with it! If it were Djokovic or Murray and perhaps even federer, the natural instinct for them would have been to hit defensive forehand… a slice or a lob but this guy, he knows he can hit passing shots from anywhere on the court and find any squares inches on the court as he wishes. How often do you see him hitting bazookas from tough positions!

  8. IMO, Rafa played a solid match. I can see some changes in Rafa’s game whether the cause is in him “redoing his forehand & movements” changed due to the wrist injury or because the team Nadal is producing some new stuff…in any case, I prefer seeing Rafa changing things and being less predictable to his opponents…

    What I still see as an issue is Rafa’s fitness…growing older is good from the experience side but bad from the endurance side…I was worried at some point in the second set following one of the long points when Rafa had to bend while breathing heavily…not a nice site…The good thing is that Rafa is serving better than whole last year which could ensure free and easy points and help him conserve some energy…hope he continues serving well…

    We shall see how the things unfold…I am hesitant to make predictions about Rafa and I have lowered my expectations to avoid disappointments…but I have high hopes for our Rafa…nobody can take hopes away from me…

    I like USO…I like the crowd showing unconditional support for Rafa…nice atmosphere and a lot of love for our Rafa…

    Vamos!

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