U.S. Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Istomin, Monfils vs. Muller

Rafael Nadal will kick off his U.S. Open campaign when he takes the court against Denis Istomin for a rematch of a 2010 affair in Flushing Meadows. Monday’s first-round schedule also includes Gael Monfils and Gilles Muller.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. Denis Istomin

Nadal and Istomin will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers and for the second time at the U.S. Open when they clash in round one at the season’s final Grand Slam on Monday afternoon. All four of their previous meetings have gone Nadal’s way and he is 10-1 in total sets against Istomin. Their 2010 night-session showdown in New York City oozed entertainment from start to finish, but the Spaniard still managed to get the job done in straight sets with a 6-2, 7-6(5), 7-5 victory. It has since been one-way traffic for Nadal, who cruised 6-2, 6-2, 6-0 at the 2012 French Open and 6-1, 6-0 at the 2014 Miami Masters.

Because of a wrist injury, the world No. 5 has played only two tournaments since withdrawing in the middle of Roland Garros. His comeback at the Rio Olympics did not disappoint, as Nadal won the doubles gold medal with Marc Lopez and finished fourth in singles. Obviously less than 100 percent the very next week in Cincinnati, the 14-time slam champion dropped his third-round match to Borna Coric 6-1, 6-3. Istomin’s 2016 record stands at a dreadful 7-20 and he has not won a tournament match at the ATP level since his Wimbledon opener against Nicolas Almagro. The 107th-ranked Uzbek is likely once again head for another straight-set beatdown at Nadal’s hands.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(10) Gael Monfils vs. Gilles Muller

Monfils has a big opportunity to gain ranking points at this U.S. Open; in fact, he will add to his total if he simply wins his opener on Monday. The Frenchman, who reached the quarterfinals in 2014, retired during first-round action last summer against Illya Marchenko. Physical problems continue to plague Monfils, but when healthy this season he has been outstanding. The world No. 12 boasts a 35-11 record for his 2016 campaign and this summer is already highlighted by the most significant title of his career in Washington, D.C.
Monfils wins 1
Up first for Monfils is a third career showdown against Muller. The 33-year-old Luxembourgian prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(4) last season in Montreal before Monfils evened the head-to-head series by prevailing 7-5, 6-0 a few months ago on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo. Among Muller’s past U.S. Open exploits are a first-round upset of Andy Roddick 11 years ago, a quarterfinal run in 2008, and a fourth-round performance in 2011. As for this year, the world No. 37 is 27-18 with grass-court runner-up showings in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and Newport. But this bad first-round draw for Muller will likely be too tough unless Monfils–for whatever reason–is struggling physically.

Pick: Monfils in 4

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24 Comments on U.S. Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Istomin, Monfils vs. Muller

  1. Muller of course got a crap draw on the cusp of a possible career high ranking. I have monfils in four. And I have Nadal in three losing 8-10 games. Also that one slide from Istomin in their 2010 encounter was epic if u remember that shot. Just had to mention that shot lol.

    • I do remember that shot. And I remember Rafa tapping his racket in applause as he lined up to serve the next point. Probably my imagination, but there was almost a look of sorrow, as if he were thinking “great shot kid, but now I have to kill you.”

  2. The only question is how many games Rafa will lose to istomin. I still remember that second set from their match at the 2010 USO. I think istomin was up 5-1 in the tab and somehow Rafa pulled one of hus Houdini routines and won the to and that set. He came into the USO without much preparation that year. But he had the big serve and it served him well in the early rounds as he was working his way into good form.

    It could be 8-10 or 11-14 games lost, winning in 3 sets.

    Monfils should get the win against Miller in 4 sets.

  3. First game of the match…. Rafa dumps two second serve returns into the net because he was going for solid, penetrative returns. Had he chosen to stand way behind the baseline, he would surely have returned them and won at least one of those points. That is the trade-off… when he does get those aggressive returns in, he can dictate play. But, often he will land those returns short or even miss them. When he lands them short, is it really tough to defend because he is inside the baseline! Whereas,when standing deep to return he still has a chance to win any point no matter how poor the return because of his defensive/retrieving skills.

    Anyway, he is hitting the backhand really really well so it is all on the forehand.

  4. If Rafa can get his forehand firing up to 90% , even then he will be incredibly tough because his backhand is just SICK at the moment.

    Istomin , meanwhile, is holding his own. Serving big, going for big shots and getting good success on his serve.

  5. Istomin missed a second serve by about 5 meters…lol.probably the sun

    ANDDDDDD istomin leaks an error to lose his serve. Rafa’s up a break!

  6. These early round matches are crucial for Rafa. He is a confidence player and NEEDs to feel really good about his game in these early rounds.

  7. haha…Rafa’s been working on that pattern I talked about in Rio but he is not too confident….it will take some time….

    The pattern is going for heavy deep/sharp-angled CC forehands and then moving forward to intercept the ball on the rise with an across-the-body finish forehand DTL. He’s been using that finish more often now as opposed to the buggy whip as far as this combo is concerned.

    • Rafa/Toni made some interesting comments about the dtl forehand. It’s the most problematical shot for his injured wrist. Could be an adjustment. They also explained that Rafa needs to re-learn his forehand, since he had to adapt that shot to play with the injury. He is/will be working on losing that adaptation and re-learning his previous forehand. It ain’t easy, folks.

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