U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

Eight years later, Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro are finally set for an encore at the U.S. Open.

Federer and Del Potro, who squared off in one of the tournament’s most memorable title matches back in 2009, will be facing each other for the 22nd time overall when they clash during quarterfinal action on Wednesday. Although the Swiss leads the head-to-head series 16-5, the high point of Del Potro’s career came in this matchup when he lifted the trophy in New York with a 3-6, 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 triumph.

That result is simply a sampling of their list of epics. Federer prevailed in five sets on his way to the 2009 French Open title, stormed back from two sets down at Roland Garros in 2012, and survived 19-17 in the third at the 2012 London Olympics. From that 2012 battle on the red clay of Paris through the end of 2013, these two friendly rivals played seven consecutive matches that went to final sets–four won by Federer and three by Del Potro.

Speaking of final sets, Del Potro produced an improbable and dramatic performance on Monday just to give himself another shot at the 19-time Grand Slam champion. Looking like “death” due to illness (in the words of commentator Darren Cahill), the 28-year-old Argentine appeared to be down and out after listlessly dropping the first two sets against Dominic Thiem. But out of nowhere, and with some help from Thiem at times, Del Potro roared back for a 1-6, 2-6, 6-1, 7-6(1), 6-4 victory.

“I [played] one of the epic [matches] of my career here in the U.S. Open, which is my favorite tournament, in front of a great crowd,” the No. 24 seed said afterward. “I’m so glad to go through.”

Federer echoed similar sentiments after each of his first two rounds, glad merely with getting through even though his performances were out of the ordinary. Clearly due to a lingering back issue, the 36-year-old needed five sets to scrape past both Frances Tiafoe and Mikhail Youzhny. Feeling better and once again getting into a grove as an event progressed, Federer raised his level to oust both Feliciano Lopez and Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets.

Thus after a total of 30 total sets played between them, another Federer-Del Potro showdown is here.

“Everybody loves him,” Del Potro said of his upcoming opponent. “(It) is going to be (an) interesting match. It will be after eight years again in the [center] court of this tournament. I know how to play if I want to win, but I will see how physically I feel after this battle. But always (it) is a pleasure to play the greatest guy [in] history.”

“It’s just really nice to see him back playing these kind of matches,” Federer added. “That’s what he came back for, to get crowd support the way he got it. We could even hear it on center court…. He’s a good guy. I know him well. So I’m really happy for him. It’s a good match to look forward to; reminds me clearly of the 2009 finals that we had, which was an epic. I hope we can produce another good one.”

There are two obvious roadblocks that could prevent another good one from happening: Del Potro’s health and Federer’s back. A day off, however, should cure whatever ailed the Argentine, and Federer has looked much better in his last two matches–even though he needed a brief visit from the trainer against Kohlschreiber. If both former champions are 100 percent, an edge goes to Federer based on his showings in rounds three and four combined with Del Potro’s grueling contest against Thiem.

Pick: Federer in 4

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56 Comments on U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

  1. Even without playing backhands DTL this guy beats the best hard court player of the year in 4 sets!

    Fed’s preparation coming into this event was not great. His fitness was in question and his training wasn’t ideal due to that. I think he felt fit after overcoming those early round matches but when you are lacking your best prep, doubts can creep in real quick and that is what happened today when he was pushed really hard.

    • I agree with you, VR. The part that is most unbelievable to me is that Del Po was able to pull this off while being VERY ill! I mean, he almost had to retire in the last one! It’s like the Michael Jordan “Flu Game”, if you’re familiar with that… Anyway, as far as Fed is concerned, it’s pretty much a miracle that he even made it this far if you consider how ridiculously close he was to losing in the first two rounds. Even though he seemed to find his footing eventually, it still felt like he was playing on borrowed time…

  2. Del Po may be one of the most inspirational athletes of our time- across all sports! What he has overcome is truly amazing. I honestly thought that winning the Davis cup and getting big individual match wins last season was as good as it would get for post-backhand Del Po. I was clearly wrong! But let’s face it- anyone who is able to beat prime Fedal back to back for a major title, even if it was only once, obviously has some serious intangibles that can be easily overlooked. Del Po is just such a fighter. I have so much respect for him. PLEASE be not too worn out for the semis, Del Po! We want a 5-set classic!

    • agree with everything on Delpo except that he beat prime Fedal in 2009. Rafa was a wounded man and he should actually have retired from the tournament rather than risking that abdominal tear of more than 25 millimetres (which actually was only a minor tear of about 5-6 millimetres when he entered the USO).

      His level of play in both the semi and the final was beyond amazing though.

  3. Jeez, what a crazy Slam. Now Rafa is the only man standing between crazy and what passes for normalcy here.

    Please Rafa, don’t disappoint. Delpo though…………still shaking me head……the man was match points down against Thiem.

  4. Approx. rankings in the first week of 2018, one week before Australian Open seedings:

    11. Wawrinka
    13. Djokovic
    19. Murray
    23. Nishikori

    • Fed talked about it saying he is very eager to see the draw next year as many good players will be below 10 🙂

      Lot of players will be lined up for Rafa from round 3 itself 🙂

  5. Delpo is dangerous when playing like this and obviously enjoying his time on the court! He will give Rafa a tough hard fought match. I am glad Delpo won fighting strong and believing till the end. He is high on confidence now!
    But Rafa will be ready!

    Vamos Rafa!

  6. What a shocker. Very happy that Rafa has no 1 monkey off his back and can play freely. Though Delpo will give him everything and the kitchen sink. However Rafa will give him more balls to play and that may draw errors.

    Fed losing 3rd set having 4 set points and that smash miss and volley miss in 4th was horrible.

    Excellent Delpo

    USO Fedal is jinxed totally..6th time now :-)..2 times from Rafa and 4 from Fed and each of 4 times Fed lost, he was overwhelming fav twice and had 2 match points twice 🙂

  7. Am eager to see whether # markmywords # Rogerwillcrush #Anderson and Gusta should play together and Fed will win 61 62 62 # #Rafitorunaway will bother to show his face here after he had a dozen eggs laid on his face today 🙂

    Stanley since you say you love Rafito and want us to believe it, hope you will support him now 🙂 He is your Rafito 🙂

    • I read his post somewhere wishing the 3 other semi finalists a good health ironically he can hardly make the same simple wish to his “beloved???” Rafito haha. @Stanly, start showing your love and support for Rafito. Forget Roger he lost already, better concentrate with Rafito for he has a big semifinal fight on Friday. Aren’t you happy with the prospect of having your beloved Rafito aloft his 16th GS come Sunday? howaaaaa.

      • @Raindrop,

        Yes i am or i might lol!
        He is my one and only Rafiiiiitoooo no one else.
        But R. Federer broke my heart and i need some time, Plzzzzzzzzzzzzzz give me some time, don’t step on me please.

        I haven’t mocked Rafans or laughed at them when Rafa loses and he has lost a lot this year against R. Federer & others but if i have, i am sorry OK i mean it.

        @Raindrop this is the 1st time i am reading your comment i think.
        So what’s up?
        And How are you? It means the same right?

        Please when you mention my name don’t post it in the previous page, i would likely miss it.

  8. Rafa should play the way he plays Fed. Target Delp BH, direct serves to Del Po’s backhand, even charge to net by playing a sharp CC FH to his BH so that he can slice and give an easy ball. Try to engage him in rallies.

    Won’t be easy for Rafa, but its the easiest path he can get to finals and the crown. The only worrying thing was the way DelPo just took his serve to another level. Reminded me of 2009 final fifth set.

    • Moya will have right strategies..he is a good strategist..and rafa has played DElpo many times before

      OLympic shocker last year was great match..I think Delpo won 7 6 in 3rd

      • Oh wow, I had totally forgotten about that match last year! Although it wasn’t a major, it was best-of-five. I’m pretty sure DelPo is playing with a fraction of the energy he had going into that Davis Cup match.

  9. Rafa was asked what does he like and admire about Roger off the court

    his answer was hilarious..he said I cant answer as if I am his boyfriend before a very important match 🙂

    #gayfriendly # Fedal respect and like each other

  10. Let’s face it- the Rafa-DelPo semi is really the final! Unless Kevin Anderson was able to play an anomaly of a match in the final, which is a one in a billion chance… Rafa has seriously never had a better shot at a non-clay major than this one. I don’t care if it’s Del Po- this title
    Is OFFICALLY Rafa’s to lose!

    • Kevin..nothing is won till last ball is played. We all Rafans have seen this before in AO 14. He was given the title by all and sundry and had critical double career slam lined up . He had beaten Nishikori, Dimi, swept aside Fed in SF and his form was great..And we all know he got injured in final..So let it play out. Rafa will get the title ONLY if he wins last point of tournament.

      • I could see Del Po losing the final to Anderson but I don’t think he could lose to PCB in the final. Unless of course physically he’s totally wiped.

  11. Phone died that’s why I hadn’t put my thoughts on here. Really sad about this loss and I just was shocked at that miss at 7-6 in second set tiebreak and 5-4 30-30 in fifth set. I couldn’t believe some of the chances he missed out on but there weren’t a lot of them. McEnroe said afterwards he thought Fed didn’t have the regular spring in his step due to maybe the five setters or something but I didn’t really notice that. All that said, Del Po completely deserved it and I am extremely happy for him. I would love to see him take the crown after what he’s been through. He played a fantastic match and was the deserved champ and I guess now we will have two humble champions in the semis it just won’t be Fedal.

    • Rafa being Rafa, showing, in my opinion, excessive deference to Fed. After seeing this Delpo, Rafa knows he has a fight on his hands. Fed would have been a much easier opponent.

      I honestly wanted a Fedal semi, for Rafa to re-assert his dominance over Fed, restore order. It will come.

      Fed’s gone, time to focus on the business at hand. As Rafa says, nobody remembers losers, only winners.

      Vamos Rafa!

      • I remember saying that we should not get carried away looking ahead to a Fedal semifinal! One match at a time!

        Now we’re one more time why nothing can ever be taken for granted!

        Rafa will have a fought in his hands with Delpo!

          • Good question RITB!! Didn’t see the match last night so can’t really comment but it does seem suspiciously like Fed wasn’t overly keen to meet Rafa 😉

            I’m quietly confident Rafa will prevail against delPo – famous last words – as long he can avoid too many TBs.

          • You and me @ed251137! Too damn suspicious, hahaha! Or maybe Fed was just being nice and giving Rafa a present since Rafa said he wasn’t too keen to play him? ?

            Actually, Delpo is giving me the beejeebuz, he can hurt Rafa, especially if Rafa comes out nervous. Also, I fear Rafa hasn’t really been tested, could be a bit undercooked. But this is so tantalizingly close, Rafa will fight. I have faith.

      • Rafa will surely beat Federer again. Dominance though? As long Fed skips clay, I don’t see there being any “dominance” happening. I think those days are behind us… Not saying it can’t happen. Fed could potentially never fully recover from his current state, and Rafa could start winning multiple hard court tournies. Personally, I wouldn’t be willing to bet on that happening, especially if Fed gets back to full health and a high level. For now, though, this is absolutely Rafa’s tournament to win or lose. On his racquet, as it should be- he’s on the tennis Mt. Rushmore! He will certainly look more like a world #1 If he wins the title.

  12. I hope Delpo does not bring this monster serve on FRiday 🙂 ..If he gets it Rafa will have huge pressure on his own serves.Delpo can take the racquet out of your hands.

  13. If Rafa wins semi, definitely he beats any of the other half opponent. They are not at his competition level.

    But playing Delpo in USO semis is not any easier than playing Fed.
    I think Delpo challenge to Rafa is comparatively 51:49 to Fed in terms of difficulty.

    Fed still has some fear to Rafa, and his legacy is threatened should they face each other and he again loses h2h on the fourth slam.
    But for Delpo, he should not have that thought of legacy, just go to blast his serve and forehand to left and right wing.

    If Delpo wins semi and face Anderson in final, then I see it 50:50.

    • I recogn this is basically the final for Nadal, while for Delpo there would still be a thought match waiting.
      But no way it would be a 50:50 against Anderson.. btw, the h2h is 6-0 for DP

  14. Federer post match presser tells it all. He says he knew he was never going to win this tournament

    Federer said in some ways he wasn’t disappointed because he knew his game was weaker than it looked, having been aided by playing three rivals in a row who are a combined 0-40 against him.

    It has been a tough tournament. I struggled,” Federer said. “If I ran into a good guy I knew I was going to lose. And going in I knew I’m not in a safe place.

    “I’m out of this tournament because I wasn’t good enough in my mind, my body and my game.”

        • Fed himself said that Delpo is right now better situated. to deal with Rafa than he himself. That’s very telling. If that’s so – why should he diminish Delpo’s chances by extending him to a fifth set? I think that there’s definitely a tactical element to Fed’s loss 😉

        • I know he didn’t tank, I was being facetious. He just wasn’t good enough, he said so himself.

          Geez, people lose their sense of humor when their fav loses………I know, I do too.

    • Exactly! Fed was being honest with himself. I had mentioned before, Fed had the luck of having guys who lost to him > 10 times with 0 win against him, one after another. They – Youzhny, Feli, Kohl – all played into his hands. Even the young Tiafoe had caused him so much problems and once he met a formidable player in Delpo, his weaknesses were exposed.

      He didn’t have good preparation for this USO so he knew he’s not going to win, he’s realistic about his chances.

    • So why was he looking forward to playing Rafa if he was not sure of himself? He said he was excited at the chance of playing Rafa, was he being disingenuous, as usual?

        • @augusta008 at11:15

          I know! My goodness, they were hanging onto Fed’s every words, while also taking Rafa’s “diffidence” literally. Remember how, early on in Rafa’s career, Fedfans never missed an opportunity to tell us Rafa was always losing early to avoid playing Fed at USOPEN? Now that it is Fed who is always losing early, conveniently, we are supposed to keep quiet? Hell no!

          LOL LOL LOL indeedy……..

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