U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

Eight years later, Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro are finally set for an encore at the U.S. Open.

Federer and Del Potro, who squared off in one of the tournament’s most memorable title matches back in 2009, will be facing each other for the 22nd time overall when they clash during quarterfinal action on Wednesday. Although the Swiss leads the head-to-head series 16-5, the high point of Del Potro’s career came in this matchup when he lifted the trophy in New York with a 3-6, 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 triumph.

That result is simply a sampling of their list of epics. Federer prevailed in five sets on his way to the 2009 French Open title, stormed back from two sets down at Roland Garros in 2012, and survived 19-17 in the third at the 2012 London Olympics. From that 2012 battle on the red clay of Paris through the end of 2013, these two friendly rivals played seven consecutive matches that went to final sets–four won by Federer and three by Del Potro.

Speaking of final sets, Del Potro produced an improbable and dramatic performance on Monday just to give himself another shot at the 19-time Grand Slam champion. Looking like “death” due to illness (in the words of commentator Darren Cahill), the 28-year-old Argentine appeared to be down and out after listlessly dropping the first two sets against Dominic Thiem. But out of nowhere, and with some help from Thiem at times, Del Potro roared back for a 1-6, 2-6, 6-1, 7-6(1), 6-4 victory.

“I [played] one of the epic [matches] of my career here in the U.S. Open, which is my favorite tournament, in front of a great crowd,” the No. 24 seed said afterward. “I’m so glad to go through.”

Federer echoed similar sentiments after each of his first two rounds, glad merely with getting through even though his performances were out of the ordinary. Clearly due to a lingering back issue, the 36-year-old needed five sets to scrape past both Frances Tiafoe and Mikhail Youzhny. Feeling better and once again getting into a grove as an event progressed, Federer raised his level to oust both Feliciano Lopez and Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets.

Thus after a total of 30 total sets played between them, another Federer-Del Potro showdown is here.

“Everybody loves him,” Del Potro said of his upcoming opponent. “(It) is going to be (an) interesting match. It will be after eight years again in the [center] court of this tournament. I know how to play if I want to win, but I will see how physically I feel after this battle. But always (it) is a pleasure to play the greatest guy [in] history.”

“It’s just really nice to see him back playing these kind of matches,” Federer added. “That’s what he came back for, to get crowd support the way he got it. We could even hear it on center court…. He’s a good guy. I know him well. So I’m really happy for him. It’s a good match to look forward to; reminds me clearly of the 2009 finals that we had, which was an epic. I hope we can produce another good one.”

There are two obvious roadblocks that could prevent another good one from happening: Del Potro’s health and Federer’s back. A day off, however, should cure whatever ailed the Argentine, and Federer has looked much better in his last two matches–even though he needed a brief visit from the trainer against Kohlschreiber. If both former champions are 100 percent, an edge goes to Federer based on his showings in rounds three and four combined with Del Potro’s grueling contest against Thiem.

Pick: Federer in 4

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34 Comments on U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

    • Ironic you say that because Fed seems a lot more excited to play that blockbuster semifinal than Nadal does. He’s running TO that match!!

      • What gives you the impression Rafa is not excited to play the semis Benny G? Don’t confuse Rafa with Toni……………Rafa will be ready.

        It’s Fed who’s cashed in his excuses early, ahem……….THAT MTO against Khols..

          • LOL! Rafa always says that. He’s relentlessly non-macho. Until he hits the court, anyway. Always said the same re Djokovic.

        • RITB 3.0 (AT 4:13 PM),
          Rafa said (smilingly) at his pre-tournament press conference 10 days ago: “I prefer to play against another player [not Fed], an easier one.”
          Fedfans have kept repeating Rafa’s words verrry seriously 24/7 (on different websites).

          An excerpt from Rafa’s pre-tournament press conference on Aug.26.
          Question. “Roger was just in here saying he would love to play you here, especially if there was a night match. I mean, would you love to play him if it got to that point?”
          RAFAEL NADAL: “If I am in semifinals, not. I prefer to play against another one. Is obvious, no? I am not that way. Sounds very good, but the real thing, I prefer to play against another player, an easier one if it’s possible (SMILING). I KNOW YOU WANT to hear the other way, that I would love to play with him…”

          https://twitter.com/TennisAtlantic/status/901496872061341697/photo/1

          • Benny G, amazing that you and your fellow Fedfans take Rafa literally on this very issue but parse his words elsewhere.

            Rafa is a well brought up young man, he truly respects Fed and is being his truly humble self. This is what this is about..

            Rafa is being self-effacing because he does not want boxing-type, pre-game nonsense. He will do his talking DURING the game.

          • When did I “parse his words” lol. I’m not even taking Rafa that seriously you just said Fed can’t run and hide and he seems to actually be excited for that matchup to happen. My point isn’t even about Rafa.

  1. Fed is more vulnerable than he has been this year but he seems quite carefree in his attitude, that’s dangerous. After surviving two 5 setters, Fed seems quite relaxed and has made amends winning his next 2 matches in straight sets.

    I think Del Potro got the hitout he needed against Thiem, he was acting like a 40 year old bum for the first 2 sets but the involvement from the crowd got him motivated to pull out the 5 set upset. Del Potro wont have the crowd advantage this time and thats very important because it seems to be a major motivating factor when things get tough in his corner.

    Fed always gets ready to boogie against Del Potro, so Fed will bring his best in this one. There’s a chance of an upset if Del Potro brings close to his best but i think the odds are for a 4 set victory in favour of the great man, Fed.

    I would have no complaints if Del Potro won this and went on to win it, IMO, he deserves it after returning to the game after a serious injury and taking the best players head on and beating them.

    Unfortunately for Del Potro, Fed is still in the draw otherwise he might be a chance of bagging another US Open.

    Fed in 4.

  2. Fed in 4, Rafa will beat him on Friday and win the title on Sunday. Reasons: back still a mental problem, Fed not playing as well as AO where Nadal was nearly the winner, Nadal is better than in AO, Feds slicing way too much!

    • thanks for sharing this!

      Yup, he is hitting bigger. I am not surprised at all. It is the consistency and the ability to play big points that was better in 2013. Having said that, he is getting there now and this match is crucial.

  3. Fed in 3 or 4, assuming his back is ok. It is true that Fed is slicing more returns than he was earlier in the season; I’m not sure why that is. However, he is still returning well and is playing extremely freely in general the last two matches. If he continues to serve like he did against Kohlschreiber, he will cruise in this match, and indeed to the title.

  4. Fed in four. While I cant see Delpo at his 2009 level, he can still trouble Federer but it should be a comfortable win if he serves well/back is OK.

  5. What I can remember of the 2009 final, was that Federer missed a lot of first serves .Some of them were halfway up the net. It was a match he could easily have won ,just a couple of points away.Taking nothing away from Delpos achievement.

  6. Fed is easy 3 sets possibly less if Delpo retires. Don’t see any other outcome.
    Fed back is 100%. That MTO after the 2nd set was bs. He just wanted to go to the locker room to check who his next opponent is.

    • I dont think Fed is so concerned about Delpo/Theim match that he would take a break for this . This is all crap.

      Youzhny taking Fed to 5 sets literally means Fed is not playing 100% , whether Fed is not 100% or his game , is a different question altogether.

  7. Federer is 1.20 to beat Delpo
    Nadal 1.08 to beat Rublev

    The bookies dont give either of these underdogs much chance of winning.

    Andersen 1.40 to beat PCB

  8. LOL, Delpo is fired up……Delpoh, Delpoh….
    Will serve for the first set!

    I like Federer but I really want Delpo to get this win, sorry, Fed fans, I’m not trying to be a troll! Either one winning is okay. I’m just cheering for Delp-oh 😀

  9. Wow, Delpo! That FH! 100mph, and then that CC FH winner at BP! Please hold serve now and wins the first set! Come on, make it more interesting!

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