U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Rublev

September 5, 2017 Ricky Match previews 208

Rafael Nadal has not yet faced a seeded opponent at this U.S. Open and the trend will continue on Wednesday when he goes up against Andrey Rublev during quarterfinal action.

Unsurprisingly, this is the first head-to-head showdown between the two competitors. After all, Rublev is just 19 years old and had won only 12 career ATP-level matches prior to this season–including zero at majors. The Russian has already doubled his victory total in 2017 alone with 15, a number that includes his first title as a lucky loser in Umag. Rublev also laid the groundwork for this breakthrough Grand Slam by qualifying at both the French Open (pushed fellow U.S. Open quarterfinalist Diego Schwartzman to 9-7 in the fifth set) and Wimbledon (beat Stefano Travaglia in five before losing to Albert Ramos-Vinolas in five). The world No. 53 has advanced in New York by taking out Aljaz Bedene, Grigor Dimitrov, Damir Dzumhur, and David Goffin.

Even with a more difficult draw, Rublev has actually dropped fewer sets (one to Dzumhur) than Nadal. The top-seeded Spaniard beat Dusan Lajovic in straights, recovered from a set down against both Taro Daniel and Leonardo Mayer, and then raised his level considerably in a 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 rout of Alexandr Dolgopolov on Monday afternoon. Thus Nadal is through to his first U.S. Open quarterfinal since he captured a second title back in 2013.

“He’s the real champion,” Rublev said the world No. 1. “I’m just going to enjoy it. It’s the quarterfinals and I have nothing to lose”

Nadal disagreed.

“Of course he’s young, but at the same time he’s in quarterfinals. He has a chance to be in the semifinals for the first time [in] his career. So of course he has things to lose. And of course I have things to lose and things to win. Of course I understand what he said. He’s a great guy. He [was] in Mallorca practicing with me a couple of years ago. But overall, when you are young sometimes you have this point of view. At the end of the day, of course you have things to lose.”

And lose is almost certainly what Rublev is going to do on Wednesday. Aside from Dimitrov, the youngster has benefited from a favorable draw so far at Flushing Meadows (Goffin was far less than 100 percent in the fourth round). Nadal’s path has been a friendly one, too, but his continues with a fifth consecutive opponent outside the top 50. Rublev’s road, on the other hand, now becomes exponentially more difficult.

Combine the guy on the other side of the net with the pressure of by far the biggest match of his young career and Rublev’s run may come to an end after three sets.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 12 games or fewer

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81 Comments on U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Rublev

  4. Delpo will turn up all fresh like its US Open champion vs US Open Champion. No delpo, that was 8 years ago before you became a bum.

    Reply

    • Amy,

      Great to have you here! Will do my best to let you know how Rafa is doing!

      Great start for Rafa! Serving very well and looking sharp with the fearhand!

      Reply

        • rc,

          I am getting very nervous! It looks like it’s coming my way. I am hoping it turns or something happens so that we do not get a direct hit. This weekend is when it’s supposed to hit.

          Reply

          • Nny,

            Me too — hope the high pressure off the Atlantic Coast draws the hurricane to the left and away from land! Praying for you!!!

          • Amen rc…I left a post for you on non tennis forum nny sending you a big hug and saying I really hope irma doesn’t hit florida..

          • Thanks everyone for your good wishes! It’s really a scary prospect. I am trying to just focus on Rafa now to keep my nerves under control.

          • Good luck, NNY! I lived in FLA for years, lived thru Andrew, and two years later we bought a summer place up north for the hurricane season. I’d had enough! Prepare for the worst, hope for the best and do take it seriously. Scariest part for me was when the power went out. Middle of the night, pitch dark, wind howling and things going BANG!

  5. Rublev starting to play better in this set. But he is just bludgeoning the ball. No finesse. Hits head, harder, hardest. Not going to work against Rafa.

    Rafa using the slice backhand effectively.

    Reply

    • Rafa giving Rublev different looks, Rublev looks confused. Rafa has too much court craft for Rublev, though I must say Rublev really can change direction well at both wings, a little bit like Djoko.

      Reply

  7. I hope Nadal just finishes this quickly. Want Rublev to get taught a lesson. He just annoys me with how mad he gets at one mistake. Like he was already losing it at 3-1 in the first set. I just find him to be a brat.

    Reply

    • Rublev is just out of his depth here. It makes me wonder how he got to the quarterfinals. Rafa doesn’t have to be at his best because Rublev can’t challenge him.

      Reply

    • Oh hello Alison, welcome back! I’m over 4,000 miles from any hurricanes 😀 In fact depending on which way it goes it will find you before me hahahaha — as just a little windy, rainy day in your part of the world.

      Reply

    • Rublev is trying to outhit Rafa from the baseline with sheer power and that is never going to work. He has no variety in his game.

      Reply

  12. Andrey Rublev will win in the 5th set.

    I am sad & happy at the same time.

    Sad- because if R. Federer meets A. Rublev it won’t be easy, Roger will win the USO title but his semifinal will be hard, he will win in 3 sets- 6-2, 6-3, 7-5.

    Happy- because R. Nadal won’t get his feelings hurt and all Rafans can brag that R. Federer didn’t defeat Rafito 4 times in year, just 3 times in a roll this year, 3 is better than 4.

    But if Rafans still want R. Nadal to meet R. Federer in the semifinal then whatever happens it’s on you, if Rafito gets hurt it’s your fault.

    You have been warned!

    Reply

  14. 61 62 so far!!…Woohoo!!…I think Rafa play this great especially for Stanley…and Stanley alone…ohh!![satisfied sigh!]…It’s heaven to see someone lick their own spit!!

    Reply

      • I missed this comment.
        @amy

        Surely you are a useless bot.

        If you are joking, i sincerely apologize for this but you don’t know me and we haven’t interacted b4.

        I was playing when i made that comment, A. Rublev lost the 1st and 2nd set and i think he was down in the 3rd set when i made that statement, i wanted U guy’s to laugh and have fun is that a bad thing?

        Plzzz mind your language especially when you haven’t met or spoken to someone b4, because that comment you posted is irresponsible & careless.
        I hope you were joking and if you were i apologize again & again x 100 i mean it, but if you weren’t then i feel sorry you.

        Reply

    • @Mira Andi,

      That comment does not dignify a counter, i will just let it go.
      Stop being careless with your words, it was just a prediction and i was clearly Joking when i was rooting 4 Rublev in the 3rd set.

      Reply

    • It’s quite true that Rublev has been pretty bad. I have to believe that if Goffin wasn’t injured he would have beaten him.

      I am not sure if it’s a good thing for Rafa not to be challenged here. He looks good, but when the opponent is playing like crap it’s easy to look good. I would not want Rafa to have a tough match before having to play Fed. But it’s a big step up in competition.

      Reply

    • no, this is the normal rublev. i can’t stand watching his games on tour. his headless chicken play is the same as kyrgios or tomic’s antics.

      Reply

  18. Would have liked the opponent to give Rafa a bit of a challenge. I won’t be surprised if he hits the practice court for a short session after this match.

    Anyway, it’s a very strong performance from Rafa and now it does look like it is the world no.1 playing.

    Reply

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