U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Rublev

Rafael Nadal has not yet faced a seeded opponent at this U.S. Open and the trend will continue on Wednesday when he goes up against Andrey Rublev during quarterfinal action.

Unsurprisingly, this is the first head-to-head showdown between the two competitors. After all, Rublev is just 19 years old and had won only 12 career ATP-level matches prior to this season–including zero at majors. The Russian has already doubled his victory total in 2017 alone with 15, a number that includes his first title as a lucky loser in Umag. Rublev also laid the groundwork for this breakthrough Grand Slam by qualifying at both the French Open (pushed fellow U.S. Open quarterfinalist Diego Schwartzman to 9-7 in the fifth set) and Wimbledon (beat Stefano Travaglia in five before losing to Albert Ramos-Vinolas in five). The world No. 53 has advanced in New York by taking out Aljaz Bedene, Grigor Dimitrov, Damir Dzumhur, and David Goffin.

Even with a more difficult draw, Rublev has actually dropped fewer sets (one to Dzumhur) than Nadal. The top-seeded Spaniard beat Dusan Lajovic in straights, recovered from a set down against both Taro Daniel and Leonardo Mayer, and then raised his level considerably in a 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 rout of Alexandr Dolgopolov on Monday afternoon. Thus Nadal is through to his first U.S. Open quarterfinal since he captured a second title back in 2013.

“He’s the real champion,” Rublev said the world No. 1. “I’m just going to enjoy it. It’s the quarterfinals and I have nothing to lose”

Nadal disagreed.

“Of course he’s young, but at the same time he’s in quarterfinals. He has a chance to be in the semifinals for the first time [in] his career. So of course he has things to lose. And of course I have things to lose and things to win. Of course I understand what he said. He’s a great guy. He [was] in Mallorca practicing with me a couple of years ago. But overall, when you are young sometimes you have this point of view. At the end of the day, of course you have things to lose.”

And lose is almost certainly what Rublev is going to do on Wednesday. Aside from Dimitrov, the youngster has benefited from a favorable draw so far at Flushing Meadows (Goffin was far less than 100 percent in the fourth round). Nadal’s path has been a friendly one, too, but his continues with a fifth consecutive opponent outside the top 50. Rublev’s road, on the other hand, now becomes exponentially more difficult.

Combine the guy on the other side of the net with the pressure of by far the biggest match of his young career and Rublev’s run may come to an end after three sets.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 12 games or fewer

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27 Comments on U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Rublev

  1. I have had this strange notion this USO that the day Pliskova goes, Rafa goes..the day Pliskova struggles Rafa struggles..the day she won easy, he won easy..I know makes 0 sense but am worried now that she lost. So I am going off..switching off whatsapp notifications as I have enough ppl who know I like Rafa and keep feeding me commentary :-)..I will peep after 3.5 hours (hopefully my notions proved wrong)

  2. Straight sets he smashed Dimitrov, Goffin and Bedene. These players are no slouches. I think the bookies have this slightly wrong. This is a 1.20-1.30 match but they know plenty will snap up the 1.08

  3. Not if Delpo of the first 2 sets against Thiem turns up.

    Delpo will turn up all shaven with a bright clean head band no doubt after the wake up call he got. yes, Delpo youre a tennis player not a bum at the local bar.

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