U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

Two clay-loving competitors will finally be facing each other away from their preferred stomping grounds when Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem clash in the U.S. Open quarterfinals on Tuesday.

Even for the best clay-court player ever and the second-best clay-courter of the present, 10 consecutive encounters on the red stuff without a single one on any other surface is an alarming number. But that is the case with Nadal vs. Thiem, which will be a rematch of this year’s French Open final–won by the Spaniard 6-4, 6-3, 6-2. He leads the head-to-head series 7-3 overall, including 2-1 this season and 5-2 dating back to the start of 2017.

Even when they landed in the same quarter of the draw, another installment of this familiar rivalry could not have been expected due to Thiem’s recent woes. The world No. 9 endured his usual post-Roland Garros slump, compiling a 1-2 record on grass, even falling twice early in clay-court events, and exiting Toronto in his first match with a loss to eventual runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas. But Thiem has suddenly turned it all around in New York, where he is through to the quarters for the first time following wins over Mirza Basic, Steve Johnson, Taylor Fritz, and Kevin Anderson.

Nadal’s U.S. Open title defense has not been completely smooth sailing, as he has has been pushed twice through four matches while also dealing with an apparent minor knee issue. The world No. 1 rolled over David Ferrer and Vasek Pospisil before dropping one set to both Karen Khachanov and Nikoloz Basilashvili, even trailing Khachanov by a set and a break at one point. Nonetheless, Nadal has improved to an awesome 44-3 in 2018 to set up another showdown against an opponent who always looked up to him.

“[My] earliest memories I think was when he beat Roger in the French semis in 2005,” Thiem said of Nadal. “I was 11 back then. Didn’t really think that I would also play him one day, but it’s very nice. It’s going to be the first time on hard court, which is a completely new experience.

“[I’ve had] three very nice experiences and [seven] horrible experiences,” the Austrian joked. “But no, I’m really looking forward to play him on hard court for the first time. On clay, I think it’s one of the biggest challenges in sports to beat this guy or to compete with this guy. I hope that it’s a little bit more comfortable on hard court, but I’m not sure.”

“He’s a fantastic player,” Nadal said of Thiem. “He’s a very powerful player. He’s a great guy; very good relationship with him. Happy for him that he’s in quarterfinals here…. Gonna be a tough one. Yeah, I need to play my best match of the tournament if I want to keep having chances to stay in the tournament.”

The 17-time major champion says that before every match, but he may really mean it this time based on how Thiem played against Anderson (the 24-year-old called it one of the best matches of his career). Still, Thiem’s hard-court history is such that it is difficult to see him turning in that kind of performance twice in succession–especially with Nadal on the other side of the net.

As long as Nadal is at or very close to 100 percent, he should have both the physical and mental edge in a grueling baseline battle.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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56 Comments on U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

    • Mira, I understand your frustration, me feeling the same way too. However, theres no need to be so angry now, Rafa wins in the end and that’s what matters! We finally have a Delpo vs Rafa SF, after all the doubts during the match, even though I don’t place much hope of this Rafa beating Delpo. Well, getting to the SF is still better than being stopped at the QF, I suppose.

      • Lucky!..I think we’re & Monalisa r the most passionate & outspoken Rafans on here!Hehehe….Can’t help it!!…Many times i telling my self not to posting anything coz it’s hard to hold myself back if circumstances like tonight arise…And i tend to lashed out my frustrations to Rafa…But,i failed everytime!….

        And i wannna apologize to all Rafans for my passionate post & offended u guys with my words…I will try to be patient next time k?

        Oh yeah!….Semis vs DelPo…Another torture session no doubt…Hehe..I gotta prepare myself!…Okay!Bring it on Rafa!!

  1. Oh wooooohoo vamoossssss to alll my fellow rafaans and i get to see him on friday liver😁😁😁🤣🤣🤣😨😊😨👀🙊✌🏿Yipppppeee

  2. Credit to Rafa for fighting hard out there, even with such a crappy serve; has he been able to serve better, ie with a better serve, he won’t even need to fight so hard to win.

    I really want to cry, for these two gladiators out there. Commies to Thiem, plays his heart out but loses. Big applause and standing ovations for Thiem! He really plays well esp with that serve of his.

    Rafa escapes again! I think some of those spectators who are Rafa fans, almost suffer heart attack! They really suffer with Rafa!! We his fans suffer with him too!! Watching Rafa is no good for our hearts!

    Rafa should’ve won this in four sets, beating Thiem in five sets really add on to the miseries Thiem already has after losing another five setter to Delpo last year when Thiem was two sets up!

  3. Lucky, I agree with everything u say! But there must be a reason y Rafa’s serve is so poor. U can see him trying to serve well but he just cant seem to deliver. But at least he lives to fight another day!

    Commies to Theim, he did give a good account of himself! He gave it his all only to still come up short. There’s no doubt he has a great future before him!

    From here on now, im just going to take one game at a time, no expectations! But it would be great for Rafa to at least make the finals!

    • I am a huge Rafa fan and see every single Rafa fan on here is the same. We have zero faith in our guy for every close match he gets into. We would love to see him fire 135 mph aces like in 2013 which somehow he chooses not to.. Watching him run around every single point / every close service game / every set makes our hearts ready to explode. And I reply to this post of a true Rafan.. oh atleast the finals pls. Like we wouldnt want him to win if the got there.. “Please please survive this and make it to 18”.. Can hear a million fans screaming inside their heads just the same.

      I have long stopped watching Rafas match. I need to give him 5 hours before I can even check the scores.. End up somehow googling every point. and stopped that and came here to see how our co fans are doing. Certainly doesnt help .. Oh poor serve.. oh running around.. oh damn service games… Certainly doesnt help the heart..

      Live to see another day.. and my prayers for Rafa to scrape through.

    • I honestly could not watch after the third set! I watched scores instead, and it was still horrible experience! Talking about going down to the wire!

  4. thiem should’ve taken this in 4 really, he can only blame himself for the loss. dull has his template of play that works against one handed bhs + moonballs + retrieve all + run like a rabbit even with your ‘injured’ knee. an epitome of anti-tennis; hope rafatrads are happy.

    anyway, dull needs to go through delpo and most likely djokovic if he wants the trophy. i don’t think even dull himself believes he can achieve that.

  5. Tough match, great fight. Passion and hunger that Rafa shows is unreal.

    He is not doing anything tomorrow for sure. Well deserved 2 days break for Rafa now. He never needed it more.

  6. What a match! High respect and admiration for these two greats! Thiem played the best GS match I have ever seen him play, and Rafa, Gosh, he truly is the greatest of all times! One would think that after losing the first set being clearly outplayed and not feeling well on the court he would give up and let it go! But no! Rafa fought like a lion out there and I have nothing but love and admiration for his tremendous efforts and never give up attitude! Something in Rafa’s attitude and his body language made me believe until the end!

    I am proud, more proud than ever to be Rafa fan! He truly is unique!

    Vamosssss Champ!

  7. Rafa all the way to final.
    if Nole is on the other side, 50:50 chance.

    any other opponent in final, 4th USO for Rafa, there is no other player capable to match Rafa on BO5 except Nole.

      • Sanju, Rafa has played 11 hours and 7 minutes before this QF; this QF is 4 hours and 48 mins long, so he has played 15 hours and 55 mins, almost 16 hours already!!

        Delpo has played 12 hours and 15 mins so far, so there’s a difference of 3.75 hours between the two. Fortunately there’s a two days break till the SF on Friday, and the conditions on Friday is not so harsh according to the forecast.

        I hope Rafa is not physically hampered by this almost five hours match, and can bring his best level when facing Delpo. Delpo is another big server and hard hitter and he’s mentally strong, unlike Thiem, so Rafa really really must come out all guns blazing, and not let his opponent dictate. I hate those matches when Rafa was so nervous and ended up letting his opponents dictate from the get go – QF at RG vs Schwartzman; SF at Toronto vs Cilic, R3 vs Khachanov and QF here vs Thiem.

        Hope not another round of suffering for us his fans on Friday!

  8. I only caught the final TB. That was enough to just about kill me!

    But grats to the diehard Rafans here! Our guy lives to fight another day! AND he’s got two days to recover. To quote MA: WOOOHOOOO!

    I set my dvr, I went to sleep. I woke up at 1 am. I stayed in bed, fighting myself, trying to get back to sleep. Gave it up at 1:15. The usual siren song, maybe it’s all over, no sense lying here…Score check. Gahhhhh! And Rafa lost the first set at love?!?!? Oh, what’s the use?!? Even if he wins he’ll be chopped liver for DelPo! But Rafa does not think about that. Sufficient for the day… And he fights, and never asks why. Because the fight is all that matters. Put one more ball inside. That’s it. Just one more ball. One more match. Life is a fight. If you can’t give it your very best you give it the best you’ve got. Everything you’ve got. It is what it is. But today gallant young Thiem “died” and Rafa was there to console him with promises of great victories to come. Someday. Just not today.

    • And that’s why Rafa’s matches were often so exciting, so torturing (if you’re his fan) and so nail biting that you have to watch till the very end to know the result oh so often!

      The commentators said that Rafa had played in 17 matches that were more than 4 hours long, my goodness! No wonder he’s called the gladiator, many times he’s not playing that well but just fought all the way to snatch victories in the end.

      • @ luckystar
        One needs to be a masochist to be a Rafan! I’ve lost count of the number of matches when he has snatched the win from the jaws of death – even when he’s been crippled with pain.

        I often think of a comment he made many years ago ‘it is the fear of losing which drives him on more than the desire to win’

  9. Kuddos to those who endured the whole match, another epic battle for the history books.
    I didn’t watch myself, partly because of the time difference and partly because I knew it was going to be too close for comfort.
    Well done Rafa!!!
    and Thiem is such a classy guy, he’s shaping up as Rafa’s replacement once he retires.

  10. There are several things to tale from this match:

    In crucial moments Rafa served big more than often! It proves he is not that nervous as we may think and that his serve is not that bad as stated here!

    Rafa started poorly, complained about conditions…Serena also was behind in the 1st set. But they were both able to recovet and get back on truck!

    Thiem played some amazing points, gave it his all, but so did Rafa! They both had beautiful shots, outlasting each other, one outsmarts other, great tennis overall! Although I hated Thiem for his perfect points in clutch moments I know I must credit his amazing performance and gut to keep challenging Nadal!

    Although this kind of match is taxing on Rafa’s body and may affect his fragile knees, this was highly needed for Rafa to fine tune his forehead and to prepare mentally for Delpo. It will bring confidence and belief, much needed for what is to come! Rafa breaking the curse of losing five-set showdown is important for Rafa’s positive mindset.

    I kept saying Delpo will be the biggest threat for Rafa but now after seeing this match I am more convinced Rafa will be able to handle Delpo and will emerge victorious!

    Vamos Champ!

  11. I’ve just seen some very good, long highlights.. what a gruelling match, the fitness level of these guys is just out of this world. How could they hit the ball like that on the 5th set is beyond me!

    • Yeah, I asked myself the same question while watching the match. People here kept saying either should drop in level but they simupersisted serving us the treats of some of the most amazing performances…and those who may think it was not a high quality match should watch the reply and then comment…

  12. Well it depends on whats the definition of ‘high quality’! The first set, was it high quality when Rafa was bageled? High quality from Thiem but poor by Rafa.

    They kept losing serve and Rafa even lost his serve after breaking serve, and Thiem lost his serve and his nerve when serving to stay in set two. They played ok imo, not really high quality.

    Its only when both were desparate to win the match, or survived in the match that they produced some high quality tennis. This match had so many ups and downs, as I said, its high quality but in patches.

    PS. A high quality match throughout its duration is something like that Rafa/Verdasco 2009 match; or the Fed/Djoko 2011 FO match, or the Rafa/Djoko 2013 FO match for examples imo.

  13. This was a great tennis match, and a fantastic win for Nadal. He played the big points better, and also took advantage of some tight play from Thiem in crucial moments. The 5th set was awesome, and I thought Rafa played his best tennis in it. He served well, hit the ball deep, and didn’t give up even after making that atrocious volley at the end of the 4th set.

    All kudos to Thiem for playing, for the most part, a great match. No doubt he could and perhaps should have won in 4 sets, but he didn’t. Match point pretty much summed it up. Thiem hit two shots that would have been winners against most players, but both came back and Thiem finally missed.

    Is there anyone here who still thinks that Nadal is injured? There was absolutely no sign of it, imo. If he’s healthy and plays like he did in the 5th set, he can beat delpo, though it will be very close.

    • Joe, I agree with your analysis! I also think this was a high quality match with both of them producing some of the best tennis! Thiem in the set 1, both Rafa and Thiem in set 5!

      I do not think Rafa is injured, but you know how it is with his fragile knees: they act up under stress and longer matches do contribute to it. The problem is that Rafa is so afraid of getting injured that even a small physical distress create doubts in Rafa’s mind and lead to loss of focus, which all affect first his serve and then his forehands – his strongest weapon.

      • Nats, I think you’re right that there’s a close connection between Nadal’s physical and mental state, especially given his well-founded fear of injury. Maybe that’s true for all players, but it seems especially true in his case.

        However, Rafa was incredibly mentally tough in the 5th. (I actually thought Thiem was, too; he didn’t crack.) He must have been so deflated after missing that easy volley at the end of the 4th that would have given him match point, and I think it did affect him for a bit at the beginning of the 5th. But he pulled it all together and actually, somehow, started playing his best tennis of the match.

        • Yep, true indeed! After terrible miss at the net of that what was supposed to be the match point I honestly expected Rafa to be discouraged and to start making more errors. But he so proved me wrong, thank Goodness! Whatsmore, the expression of his face showed that he was ready to leave it all behind and start over in the 5th. Incredible mental toughness in the 5th set! But Thiem was amazing too, especially when fighting off those break points and serving big in crucial moments! Most of the points in the 5th from both ends were just WOW!

  14. Same here, after he lost the fourth set, those five sets losses at USO 2015/2016 started coming back to my mind. I was really worried that he would lose this match and then his confidence would take a beating and a huge step back. Thank goodness, this time round he won, it’s like a mental battle conquered.

    • I think its a myth that he loses five-setters. He won good matches in AO2017, Wimbledon 2018 and here as well.

      His serve is a worry for me always. He should work that out in off-season. I think Theim will be a very good player on HC, he already is great on clay.

      But DelPo is a tougher test. I dont see Rafa winning that honestly. I never thought Rafa would beat Theim this tme around but he proved me wrong. I hope he proves me wrong twice.

      But at least fans would remain interested in that high-profile encounter.

    • I missed it too because it started around 2am British time!
      I just saw some highlights…what was up with rafa in the first set?? He was scarcely moving..just vaguely hovering around the baseline!
      Very proud of him but he has to step it up to play Delpo!

      • Amy, Rafa said it was the conditions that caused his first set setback. Certainly was terrible for us watching the match to see Rafa hopeless like that. Thiem OTOH was simply amazing and should be given a credit for flawless performance in the 1st set.

        Serena also suffered a slow start and was down a break, so I’d say conditions were unbearable for those players “of older” type.

        I agree though that Rafa can not afford such a slow start vs Delpo. Rafa should not allow Delpo to get too confident and too comfortable in the match. Must ssy that Rafa already raises his level during this match! If he replicated his game from the fifth set he should be fine! It’s gonna be another tough match but I hope Rafa recovers physically and mentally for it!

        • Thanks Natashao!!
          I really hope the conditions improve for the Delpo match…Delpo seemed not so phased by them against isner?!
          Rafa has 2 days off so he should be fine physically!
          Thanks Natashao I am relieved by what you say!😀

          • Amy,

            Humidity is way worse during night sessions. During daylight it’s hot but not as humid. Hopefully the conditions improve for Friday. Do you think Rafa will be scheduled for daily session on Friday? Not sure which is his preference now…

          • He has now played shaky both at day and night…so not sure. I hope he gets the day session as vs delpo he will need his sun to rock his fh. Novak cilic n Rafa delpo are both high profile . Final is at 5 pm day time so day sessions are better. Yes unfortunately cooler next few days but prefer it hotter as Novak will thrive in cooler conditions . First semi means more time to recover for semi. Rafa may ask for day session.

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