U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

Two clay-loving competitors will finally be facing each other away from their preferred stomping grounds when Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem clash in the U.S. Open quarterfinals on Tuesday.

Even for the best clay-court player ever and the second-best clay-courter of the present, 10 consecutive encounters on the red stuff without a single one on any other surface is an alarming number. But that is the case with Nadal vs. Thiem, which will be a rematch of this year’s French Open final–won by the Spaniard 6-4, 6-3, 6-2. He leads the head-to-head series 7-3 overall, including 2-1 this season and 5-2 dating back to the start of 2017.

Even when they landed in the same quarter of the draw, another installment of this familiar rivalry could not have been expected due to Thiem’s recent woes. The world No. 9 endured his usual post-Roland Garros slump, compiling a 1-2 record on grass, even falling twice early in clay-court events, and exiting Toronto in his first match with a loss to eventual runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas. But Thiem has suddenly turned it all around in New York, where he is through to the quarters for the first time following wins over Mirza Basic, Steve Johnson, Taylor Fritz, and Kevin Anderson.

Nadal’s U.S. Open title defense has not been completely smooth sailing, as he has has been pushed twice through four matches while also dealing with an apparent minor knee issue. The world No. 1 rolled over David Ferrer and Vasek Pospisil before dropping one set to both Karen Khachanov and Nikoloz Basilashvili, even trailing Khachanov by a set and a break at one point. Nonetheless, Nadal has improved to an awesome 44-3 in 2018 to set up another showdown against an opponent who always looked up to him.

“[My] earliest memories I think was when he beat Roger in the French semis in 2005,” Thiem said of Nadal. “I was 11 back then. Didn’t really think that I would also play him one day, but it’s very nice. It’s going to be the first time on hard court, which is a completely new experience.

“[I’ve had] three very nice experiences and [seven] horrible experiences,” the Austrian joked. “But no, I’m really looking forward to play him on hard court for the first time. On clay, I think it’s one of the biggest challenges in sports to beat this guy or to compete with this guy. I hope that it’s a little bit more comfortable on hard court, but I’m not sure.”

“He’s a fantastic player,” Nadal said of Thiem. “He’s a very powerful player. He’s a great guy; very good relationship with him. Happy for him that he’s in quarterfinals here…. Gonna be a tough one. Yeah, I need to play my best match of the tournament if I want to keep having chances to stay in the tournament.”

The 17-time major champion says that before every match, but he may really mean it this time based on how Thiem played against Anderson (the 24-year-old called it one of the best matches of his career). Still, Thiem’s hard-court history is such that it is difficult to see him turning in that kind of performance twice in succession–especially with Nadal on the other side of the net.

As long as Nadal is at or very close to 100 percent, he should have both the physical and mental edge in a grueling baseline battle.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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31 Comments on U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Come on Rafa! Please hold serve! Why every of your service game is such a torture!! You’re the world no.1, why serve so poorly?? How many times your serve has been broken?

    Even if Rafa wins this, it’s even tougher road ahead facing Delpo in the SF. Delpo is not Thiem, he won’t give Rafa these chances to break serve!

  2. Rafa better finishes this in four sets; I think if this goes to five, Rafa will be the one running out of steam. I don’t think this is a high quality match, just some high quality in patches. Both are losing serves so often it’s ridiculous.

  3. I think Rafa should stop going to the net…How many times he shanked easy ball at the nets!…I think he could finish this match early if he just a little bit aggressive…not FH BH,FH BH all the time…He just waiting for Thiem to makes mistakes…I can’t even remember he blast his FH DTL in the 4th sets..

  4. I now declared Rafa officially out of contention for Trophy….RIP 18th slams![for now at least}…

    Brain cramp from Rafa!!…God!…That hurts!!

  5. I really give up. How many errors Rafa must hit!! Rafa is not going to win this, as Thiem looks the fitter player out there. I’m really very pissed with what I’ve watched so far. They’re killing each other for the benefit of Delpo!

    I think it’ll be a Delpo vs Cilic or Delpo vs Djoko final. I can’t imagine how much Rafa’s game have deteriorated after Toronto! His serve is poor by any standard, esp for a world no.1.

  6. If Thiem wins here, I’ve to thank him for putting us and Rafa out of miseries. This Rafa is really miserable for us to watch, fighting spirit regardless.

    I mean what have his coaches done, to at least instill some belief in Rafa, or at least help him to improve that miserable serve! He’s taking so long to serve and is looking at the shot clock all the time instead of concentrating on serving a good first serve! That may be why he’s poor in his first serve% and he couldn’t win cheap points on his second serve because it has deteriorated from what it was last year.

  7. Hang on you guys. This is what your man lives for! I can’t even tell you the feelings I’ve gone through watching this match here… The humidity is just sweltering. Dare I say the humidity in here is worse than it was during day session? Between the up and down emotional roller coaster of this match, and the oppressive humidity, i’ve Entered a state of delirium.

    If I feel this way in the stands, I can’t imagine what these guys are feeling right now. It’s truly unfathomable. Although one could argue that Thiem should have won the match by now, he has earned my respect whatever the outcome here. I truly thought he would go away after failing to serve out the third set and losing it. But he fought. Against the toughest guy to fight against.

    And as for Rafa, there’s nothing else to be said that hasn’t been said forever… The guy is just the best competitor. He’s upped his game at nearly all the biggest moments to stay in this match. I’m just blown away by these two guys…

  8. Don’t understand why such poor design for the roof, cutting off all the wind from the arena, it’s really torturing for those inside the arena in such conditions.

    I won’t be surprised that Rafa and Djoko will lose here playing the night session, not unlike Fed. Djoko is also not a hard hitter so he also needs to do all the running and defending, not good under such conditions.

  9. He’s going to lose this, having to serve from behind all the time. I really hate to see Rafa playing like crap like this, when he has so many chances of closing this match in four sets. His BP conversion was so poor,just like in the Basilashvili match; had his chances in Thiem’s first service game in the fourth set but chose to run all over the place to retrieve instead of be more aggressive with those BPs. I’m just fed up with the way he plays this match, worse than the Khachanov match!

  10. Thiem has gone for broke and managed to land it in more often than not. It is rafas will which has kept him in this even now. Thiem deserves this but our guy has spoilt us by pulling victories from the jaws of defeat so many times

  11. Thiem has 23 BH winners, and Rafa is still hitting to Thiem’s BH all night long; just like he did vs Basiliashvili. He didn’t learn any lesson from his previous match!

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