U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nishikori

Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori will be squaring off for the 16th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the U.S. Open final on Friday.

Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 14-2, including 13-0 since losing to Nishikori 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 in the same stage of this same tournament in 2014. The Serb is 3-0 this season, with a straight-set victory in Madrid, a three-set success in Rome, and a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 win in the Wimbledon quarterfinals.

If Nishikori could not get the best of Djokovic on clay this spring, when the former world No. 1 was still vulnerable in his comeback, it is hard to see the underdog getting over the hump at this point. After all, Djokovic is now the reigning Wimbledon champion who also lifted the trophy in Cincinnati and boasts a 20-1 record in his last 21 matches. The sixth seed has advanced so far in New York by beatingĀ Marton Fucsovics, Tennys Sandgren, Richard Gasquet, Joao Sousa, and John Millman, cruising through his last three matches in straight sets.

Also armed with a much-needed clean bill of health, Nishikori booked his spot in the last four with defeats of Maximilian Marterer, Gael Monfils, Diego Schwartzman, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Marin Cilic, losing just one set to Schwartzman before outlasting Cilic 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4 on Wednesday afternoon. The world No. 19 from Japan is now through to his third career U.S. Open semifinal (1-1 record).

“He’s got one of the best two-handed backhands in the game,” Djokovic said of Nishikori. “And very quick. If not the quickest, then one of the quickest players on the tour. Has phenomenal footwork. I have played him recently in quarters of Wimbledon; tough first two sets, then after that I felt like third and fourth I played very well. I raised my game.

“We faced each other many times in different tournaments. Probably the biggest match I lost against him was here back in 2014 in semis. He loves playing here, obviously. He had a tough one against Cilic and managed to prevail in that match, which was quite impressive…. When he’s on, he’s definitely a top-five, top-10 player. There is no doubt he’s won big tournaments, been in the final stages of slams, and he has experience. I’m expecting a tough one.”

“I don’t have great record against Novak,” Nishikori admitted. “It’s been a tough [matchup] last couple of years. (I’m) always excited to play Novak, because it’s (a) great challenge for me; always exciting to play him. He’s very solid from baseline. He doesn’t have many weakness. He has (a) great backhand and forehand, too. He can be aggressive and [his serve has gotten] better, too.”

Djokovic is–and has been–the odds-on U.S. Open title favorite for a reason. He is looking like the best all-around player in the game right now and Nishikori’s recent five-setter against Cilic will not help his upset chances.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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36 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nishikori

  1. Kevin am very happy kei beat the Nazi hugger!! I went to bed just as the NH took the fourth set so I was very relieved to wake up and find kei had won.
    How do you like his chances against Nole given his level of play during the match?Do you think he will have enough in the tank after going 5 with only 1 day rest??

  2. As cooler conditions are announced over the weekend, Djokovic is positioned nicely to take it all. Djokovic in 4 sounds about right. If he is focused, then even 3.

  3. Djokovic in 4.

    Nishikori is in great form obviously but is coming off a 5-setter and Djokovic is a bad matchup for him while fatigued.

      • Kei is vulnerable to injury at this point in any GS.

        But if he can engage Nole in long grinding rallies like Millman did – Kei can make it a hard night. Kei’s weapon in his calm mind and he depends on his foot speed. I think about every body part could be ready to give out, but he got through his draw in good shape until that tough match vs Cilic.

  4. Kei also has to be aggressive and take the ball early/ not give an inch. Also – he needs a spectacular serving day and plenty of gifts from Nole.

    Nole already with the first set.

    Kei can go on and on forever, if not injured. And in 5 setters he’s got that amazing record. Mentally tougher than Marin Cilic. Tough to beat Nole, unless Nole is tired or injured and Nole looks pretty sharp here.

    Come on Kei win a set…if at all possible! He’s saving the bp’s this first game of the 2nd set. So hard to hold serve v Nole.

    • Kei gets the hold – one game at a time.

      All depends on how well Nole is serving too because Kei has a great ROS. If Kei can make it hard for Nole to hold serve, we’ll have a match.

  5. This is as good as I’ve seen Novak since 2016. He keeps getting better, even if he’s not quite back to being his best. If Novak keeps this level, Nishikori has to red-line the rest of the match to win it.

    • Nole did not look all that good v Millman. I think the extreme heat took something out of him.

      But yeah – Nole should beat Kei. I love both these guys so I’m cheering for Kei to make it a match somehow atm.

  6. Woot Kei! Great tennis – the ball striking and anticipation from Kei shows his talent. That was an easier hold.

    Maybe I want Nole to win but I don’t want either one to overwhelm the other too soon. I want tennis!And I’m greedy. Nadal v Thiem was way more than I expected. And Kei v Cilic was a 5 set battle. Nole v Millman was stressful. Millman is dangerous and I thought Nole was going to pass out from the heat.

    That was an easy hold from Nole. 2-2, 2nd set. Come on Kei. Hold your serve buddy!! LOL

  7. whooohoo Kei saved all the bps….it’s deuce. and then just like that Nole has another break point. And Novak breaks… Kei got nervous and hits the error.

    Well, not sure how many games Kei will manage to get.

  8. Chevy Chase is a broken-hearted Federer fan. Pam Shriver interviewing the old comedian. Chevy Chase is also sad for Rafa to go out injured. Says Nole is a shoe-in.

    Meanwhile Nole with another easy hold.

  9. I realize I’m watching this all by myself. The action is on another thread. And it’s good – Kei got another game. But Novak is so good right now. I just love when he is striking the ball so well and making the most of his elastic tennis šŸ˜€

        • Oh please don’t tell me that, hawkFDT.

          I’m spending the day in a resistance march tomorrow. I’ve been signing petitions, writing emails, leaving voicmails to my useless one strangely undecided Republican Senator to try to get him to vote no on that Scotus nominee who is all kinds of bad. Sigh…..

    • There goes the second set 6-4, Nole. Kei has a sad face. And I have nothing chocolate to eat or drink.

      This is good for the final – Nole winning in straight sets. But with Rafa getting injured and Kei getting walloped. It’s time to get out. We all know how this ends. Nole with break points in the 3rd already… at least Kei got a game.

      Idemo Nole!

  10. Novak has joined Rafa and qualified in the atp race by winning tonight and making the final. And if Delpo wins USO on Sunday, he will also qualify.
    https://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race

    Keeping positive about Rafa. Rafa has been through this time and time again. I watched his presser – which was very sad but he knows this injury well and what he needs to do to get back. The question is how much time will he miss?

  11. Djokovic showing anything fed and rafa can do, he can too. Winning two slams in his year of return on two different surfaces. Frankly cant see delpo winning against the return of the djok. Whats more he will put himself in pole position for number one at the end of the year with his favorite part of the season coming up

    • Yeah, Novak could rack up some points. We’ll see how he can handle it. I don’t like to get my hopes to high – as long as he’s happy and doesn’t have another injury or glassy-eyed loss of mojo. I’m sure he will be fired up for the fight on Sunday. Both of them will. Should be good.

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