Rafael Nadal will begin his U.S. Open title defense when he takes the court against good friend and fellow Spaniard David Ferrer on Monday. Juan Martin Del Potro is kicking off his campaign by facing Donald Young.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. David Ferrer
This not the same kind of Nadal-Ferrer matchup that was on display in the 2013 French Open final (well, the result will likely be quite similar) and in seven other finals when both Spaniards were at or near the top of the sport. Now only Nadal is left as a contender for tennis’ biggest titles, as Ferrer has fallen off the map at 36 years old and with a ranking of No. 146. The former world No. 3 is just 9-17 this season, including 2-9 in his past 11 matches. He has not defeated anyone ranked better than 80th since the Davis Cup quarterfinals in April and his last win over any top-30 opponent came more than a year ago in Cincinnati.
Ferrer, who recently announced that he plans to retire next spring and speculates that this U.S. Open will be his last Grand Slam, will face Nadal for the 31st time in his career on Monday night. Nadal is owning the head-to-head series 24-6, with half of his losses coming more than a decade ago. They have not squared off since 2015, when the current world No. 1 survived three-setters on the red clay of Monte-Carlo and on an indoor hard court at the World Tour Finals. Nadal is still flying high at 32 years old with recent titles at Roland Garros and the Cincinnati Masters plus complete dominance of the 2018 race to London, so there is no reason to think this one will be competitive.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games
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(3) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (Q) Donald Young
Nadal and Del Potro met in last year’s U.S. Open semifinals on the Spaniard’s eventual way to the title and they are once again on a collision course for the semis. The third-ranked Argentine hopes to set the table for another impressive showing in New York when he goes up against Young for the first time in his career on Monday. Del Potro is relatively healthy and in outstanding form this season, to the extent that he is comfortably on pace to appear in the year-end championship for the first time since 2013. He has reached at least the quarterfinals of four consecutive tournaments, including a semifinal finish at the French Open and a quarterfinal performance at Wimbledon.
Young has disappeared to 242nd in the rankings and wild cards into U.S.-based events are mostly going to Americans much younger than 29 years old, so he was forced to qualify for the main draw. That may be just what the doctor ordered for Young, who will surely take confidence from having successfully navigated his way past Mats Moraing, Simone Bolelli, and Peter Polansky. Still, the former world No. 38 is a horrendous 4-17 in main-draw matches–including at Challengers–in 2018, so this should be an absolute beatdown.
Pick: Del Potro in 3 with no tiebreakers
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