U.S. Open Day 1 expert picks, including Dimitrov vs. Wawrinka and Shapovalov vs. Auger-Aliassime

Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Pete Ziebron of Tennis Acumen make their picks for four of the best matchups on Day 1 of the 2018 U.S. Open. They include a pair of blockbuster battles: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Stan Wawrinka and Denis Shapovalov vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Stan Wawrinka vs. (8) Grigor Dimitrov

Ricky: In the words of legendary Chicago Cubs player Ernie Banks: “let’s play two!” One apparently wasn’t enough for Dimitrov and Wawrinka, who also had to go head-to-head in the Wimbledon first round earlier this summer. The Swiss scored a 1-6, 7-6(3), 7-6(5), 6-4 upset and his comeback from knee problems has only taken off since then. He reached the Toronto third round and Cincinnati quarterfinals, losing only to Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. Dimitrov has not been terrible in recent weeks, but he also hasn’t been great–certainly nowhere near the level that took him to titles in Cincinnati and at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2017. Wawrinka’s backhand will be by far the biggest weapon on the court in this one and it should carry him to a hard-fought victory. Wawrinka in 5: 6-3, 4-6, 6-2, 5-7, 6-4.

Pete: Ironically, Wawrinka and Dimitrov collectively played against the Big Three in Canada and Cincinnati the last few weeks. Although each match resulted in a loss, the trajectories of both players are significantly different. Wawrinka succumbed to Nadal in two tiebreakers at the Rogers Cup before taking the first set against Federer in a ‘breaker in Cincinnati (he ultimately went down in three). The Swiss’ backhand is once again lethal and having enjoyed a first-hand vantage point in Cincinnati, I conclude that his overall game is at about 90 percent of where he would like it to be at this stage. Dimitrov was up a set and a break against Novak Djokovic in Cincy when he plowed an overhead smash into the net and never recovered. Not only did he fail to defend his Cincinnati title, but his confidence also disappeared immediately after the overhead blunder against the eventual champion. Wawrinka is in fine form heading into New York, while Dimitrov may still be wondering what happened. The three-time major champ improves to 3-0 H2H vs. Dimitrov at majors. Wawrinka in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5.

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(28) Denis Shapovalov vs. (Q) Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ricky: Even if you’re a fan of both youngsters and want to see each one go deep in the tournament, part of you had to hope this match would happen when you saw Auger-Aliassime qualify for the main draw and noticed that Shapovalov would play a qualifier in round one. And it has. Already box-office attractions (especially Shapovalov), the Canadian teenagers–and great friends–will make for what should be an awesome atmosphere on the Grandstand on Monday evening. Although Shapovalov has even more experience than the one-year age difference (19 to 18) suggests, FAA has three matches under his belt at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center following a stellar qualifying run. Shapovalov probably should win this in less than five, but let’s be honest: it’s destined to go the distance. Shapovalov in 5: 6-2, 4-6, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-3.

Pete: Last year it was Shapovalov who qualified in New York and cruised all the way to the round of 16. Now, a most unexpected first-round bonanza appeared in the draw after Auger-Aliassime successfully qualified and was placed alongside his good friend and fellow Canadian. This will be the second consecutive match against a countryman for Shapovalov, as he fell in to Milos Raonic in the Cincinnati second round despite holding a set point in the opener. Shapovalov stated afterward that he rushed at critical times, which led to dropping the set and getting broken in his next service game. He will have quickly learned from that experience and will certainly not want to fall to the upstart Auger-Aliassime, especially not in a major. The world No. 28’s experience wins out here as both players thrill the Grandstand crowd with their shot-making and Auger-Aliassime’s consolation prize is that he is now on the radar of all tennis fans–not just the die-hards. Shapovalov in 4: 6-3, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6(4).

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Mischa Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz

Ricky: Fritz is 0-1 lifetime at the ATP level against the older Zverev brother (and for whatever it’s worth, he is a combined 0-3 lifetime against both brothers). But he is a decent 1-2 against Mischa overall, having also split a pair of hard-court Challenger matches in 2015 and 2016. The 20-year-old American has gone three straight tournaments without losing in the first round, a stretch that includes a five-set setback against the younger Zverev in the Wimbledon second round. This Zverev is just 19-23 in 2018 and he has fourth-round points to defend in Flushing Meadows. Even in last summer’s run, the German flirted with disaster in five-setters against Thai-Son Kwiatkowski and Benoit Paire in the first two rounds. Fritz in 5: 6-7(3), 6-4, 7-5, 2-6, 6-3.

Pete: The elder Zverev is defending fourth-round points in New York.  That very fact will make quite an impression of the way he approaches both the tournament as a whole and his young American opponent in the first round. Fritz actually held a two sets to one advantage over Zverev’s younger brother a few months ago at Wimbledon and will be seeking his third career win at a major. Despite debuting at a slam 11 years ago, this is just Zverev’s fifth U.S. Open appearance. Prior to his quarterfinal run at the 2017 Australian Open, Zverev had a 5-17 career mark at majors. As a result, he takes absolutely nothing for granted and savors every ounce of the success he has enjoyed in the last two years. Fritz will have plenty of time on tour to continue to make inroads and concurrently establish his game, but match and tournament simply mean much more to Zverev right now. Ther German’s attempt to block out the boisterous American fans cheering on their charge should be successful. Zverev in 4: 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(2).

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Andrey Rublev vs. Jeremy Chardy

Ricky: I’m going for a clean sweep of five-setters in these four matches. What the heck; the U.S. Open might as well get off to a roaring start with an epic Day 1! Both players are in decent but certainly unspectacular form, which means a competitive one could be in the cards on Monday. But an edge has to go to Rublev, as the Russian is a surprising 4-0 lifetime at Chardy’s expense and he obviously feels good in New York having made a quarterfinal run last summer (lost to eventual champion Nadal). Rublev in 5: 4-6, 6-7(2), 6-2, 7-6(6), 6-3.

Pete: One year ago, Rublev became the first of the NextGen representative to reach a major quarterfinal. Despite a solid start to 2018, he cooled off considerably and finally appeared to find his form once again in Washington, D.C. last month.  However, the stormy weather that has plagued the U.S. Open Series this summer forced him to play a pair of matches on the same day in D.C. and hurt his chances to play for the title. As for Chardy, he has just one win at his last five major appearances. Rublev is surely glad to be back in New York, where he hopes to reengage with the formula that worked so very well for him last year, while Chardy appears to be an ideal opening-round opponent for him. Including Challengers, the Russian has dropped just one set in four hard-court matches against the Frenchman. Rublev in 4: 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(2), 6-4.

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