Rafael Nadal will begin his U.S. Open title defense when he takes the court against good friend and fellow Spaniard David Ferrer on Monday. Juan Martin Del Potro is kicking off his campaign by facing Donald Young.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. David Ferrer
This not the same kind of Nadal-Ferrer matchup that was on display in the 2013 French Open final (well, the result will likely be quite similar) and in seven other finals when both Spaniards were at or near the top of the sport. Now only Nadal is left as a contender for tennis’ biggest titles, as Ferrer has fallen off the map at 36 years old and with a ranking of No. 146. The former world No. 3 is just 9-17 this season, including 2-9 in his past 11 matches. He has not defeated anyone ranked better than 80th since the Davis Cup quarterfinals in April and his last win over any top-30 opponent came more than a year ago in Cincinnati.
Ferrer, who recently announced that he plans to retire next spring and speculates that this U.S. Open will be his last Grand Slam, will face Nadal for the 31st time in his career on Monday night. Nadal is owning the head-to-head series 24-6, with half of his losses coming more than a decade ago. They have not squared off since 2015, when the current world No. 1 survived three-setters on the red clay of Monte-Carlo and on an indoor hard court at the World Tour Finals. Nadal is still flying high at 32 years old with recent titles at Roland Garros and the Cincinnati Masters plus complete dominance of the 2018 race to London, so there is no reason to think this one will be competitive.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games
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(3) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (Q) Donald Young
Nadal and Del Potro met in last year’s U.S. Open semifinals on the Spaniard’s eventual way to the title and they are once again on a collision course for the semis. The third-ranked Argentine hopes to set the table for another impressive showing in New York when he goes up against Young for the first time in his career on Monday. Del Potro is relatively healthy and in outstanding form this season, to the extent that he is comfortably on pace to appear in the year-end championship for the first time since 2013. He has reached at least the quarterfinals of four consecutive tournaments, including a semifinal finish at the French Open and a quarterfinal performance at Wimbledon.
Young has disappeared to 242nd in the rankings and wild cards into U.S.-based events are mostly going to Americans much younger than 29 years old, so he was forced to qualify for the main draw. That may be just what the doctor ordered for Young, who will surely take confidence from having successfully navigated his way past Mats Moraing, Simone Bolelli, and Peter Polansky. Still, the former world No. 38 is a horrendous 4-17 in main-draw matches–including at Challengers–in 2018, so this should be an absolute beatdown.
Pick: Del Potro in 3 with no tiebreakers
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It’s difficult to imagine either of these matches resulting in anything but lopsided wins for Delps and Nadal.
Ricky just likes to see how many games people think Ferrer or whoever it is can get v Rafa. I don’t give Ferrer very many games. Definitely a routine 3 set win for Rafa but I think a bagel is possible, and perhaps a couple bread sticks.
Yeah, I don’t see Young getting a set v Delpo here.
Mmm Ricky sorry to be a pedant but last time I looked rafa hadn’t won Cincinnati!
he did in 2013!
Del Po and Rafa cruise in three
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Poor Ferrer… I pretty confident that he may only win 4 or 5 games in the final grand slam match of his career. The guy just has nothing left. When your style is predicated entirely on speed around the court and grinding, you’re just not going to be able to compete anymore once you reach your mid to late 30’s. It’s almost cruel that he just happened to get drawn to face a guy who has so overwhelmingly had his number for the last 8 years. But that’s just the way it goes!
I’m guessing something like Rafa, 6-1, 6-1, 6-3.
What is actually quite ironic about this is that, if I’m not mistaken, Ferrer is actually the only player, aside from Djokovic, to have beaten Rafa at both the AO AND the US Open. I don’t care what circumstances may have been- that is a great accomplishment to have to your name. For a guy who was probably never going to win a major in the era which he played, I would say that beating the guy who is arguably the hardest ever to beat in Best-of-5, at two different majors, is probably his best achievement!
Nah, Murray had also beaten Rafa at both AO (2010)and USO (2008).
Clearly you are not a pro tennis player! These guys see the upside. There’s a bit about the Nadal-Ferrer match on the ATP site. Far from seeing this first round match up as “cruel”, Daveeed says he’s very happy about it. He’ll try his best, of course, but win or lose it’ll be a very special way to go out of his last USO. Night match on Ashe against numero uno, his countryman, DC teammate and friend! Gotta love Ferru, and I’m gutted about his play over the past year. The DC quarterfinals may have been his last hurrah. 🙁
Can’t feel too sorry for him, though. Ferru’s had a very, very successful if not spectacular career. And he’s got a lovely wife, a 3 month old son and a new puppy. I expect he’ll have plenty of post-career opportunities too.
he wont care. he will just have fun playing–and getting blown out by–Rafa.
Ferrer will be happy to play his last slam match vs a no.1 player especially Rafa in Arthur Ashe arena, win or loss. It’s better than losing to any Tom, Dick or Harry at one of the outside courts.
yep
Keep calm, stay focused, remain confident, be strong and enjoy the game, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DloyvWYXcAAy4yW.jpg
Sleeveless Rafa!!Wooohoooo!!
Lol!…Rafa shouldn’t let David’s condition rattle him…Focus Rafa!!
Rafa seems to be distracted in the second set. Is he really going to lose a set to Ferrer?
This is kind of bizarre.
Ferrer retired?? That is unfortunate to say the least…
In his last ever grand slam match, he throws in his first grand slam retirement.
That was very unfortunate. Ferrer having to retire in his last grand slam match.
For Rafa it was like a practice session. I know he would not want to win that way. But I hope he comes out sharper in his next match.
Sigh. So sad for Ferru. Not the ending he hoped for. I hope they give him a nice farewell at Barcelona in the spring. Rafa once said that Ferrer had made so many finals at Barce that he deserved to win there. Then he added, “but he always has to play me.” Might be the most arrogant thing I ever heard him say!
Rafa not very sharp today, he looked lost in the second set, probably a bit concerned about Ferrer’s physical conditions. He better be sharper in his next match as Pospisil comes with a big serve.
Wait, this USO match was Ferrer’s last grand slam match? Isn’t he going to play at the AO next year, and then retires after playing at Madrid? Poor soul, that his last slam match had to end this way. I hope he does consider playing at the AO next year and meet someone else instead of Rafa when in the main draw.
Right now his ranking is too low. He’d need a wild card. He must have had one for uso with his current ranking of 148 I’m guessing?
um, no
Ricky, did you know that you could improve your pick record simply by picking all favourites? Thought I’d point that out.
https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/articles/115000821689-Tennis-Grand-Slam-trading-strategy
Ferru’s ranking in the mid-70s was high enough by the cut off date. But his ranking is now too low to make future slam main draws or Masters main draws.
Ferrer is no. 7 in career tennis prize money with $33M ahead of Agassi and Becker. Only the Big 4, Sampras and Wawrinka have higher career earnings.
Ferrer’s ranking is 148, not high enough to get into AO, barring some kind of miracle resurrection. He’s planning to retire at Barcelona or Madrid so won’t play RG.
Well, Rafa says that people remember your victories, not your losses. Not entirely true in his case but maybe for Ferrer it is.
he isnt playing the AO no matter what
Ferrer, Berdych, Nalbandian, Tsonga, Davydenko, Gasquet – Great players.
Exactly Ramara. He’d now need a wildcard unless he improved his ranking or entered qualifying.
He can’t make Masters 1000 main draws at his current ranking.
But he’s earned the 7th highest career earnings in men’s tennis history.