U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Serena Williams vs. Naomi Osaka

Serena Williams is in her best form since giving birth to her first child last summer. Naomi Osaka is in her best form since she won the Indian Wells title and then beat none other than Serena in Miami. The result should be a high-quality U.S. Open title match on Saturday.

Serena was the first to book her spot in the final on Friday evening, when she made routine 6-3, 6-0 work of Anastasija Sevastova. Osaka followed with a 6-2, 6-4 victory over 2017 U.S. Open runner-up Madison Keys.

“It is remarkable,” Serena said of her comeback, which now features back-to-back Grand Slam final appearances (lost to Angelique Kerber at Wimbledon). “I couldn’t have predicted this at all. (I’ve) just been working really hard.

“This is just the beginning of my return. I’m still on the way up; there’s still much more that I plan on doing. You don’t reach your best a couple months in. That’s kind of where I am now. I just feel like there’s a lot of growth to still go in my game. That’s actually the most exciting part.”

If the former world No. 1 gets even better on Saturday, that will be bad news for Osaka. Either way, however, it will be an amazing experience for the 20-year-old from Japan. She grew up idolizing Serena and even stunned the 23-time major champion 6-3, 6-2 in the Miami opening round following her title at the Indian Wells Masters.

Unsurprisingly, Osaka had only good things to say about Serena after she beat Keys on Thursday night.

“When you just come back and then you make the finals of two slams, I think that’s really amazing,” the world No. 19 praised. “I’m sure that everyone knows that Serena’s really good, of course. But I really feel like I don’t want to overthink this match, so I’m not going to think that she’s so much better than she was in Miami. I’m just going to go out there and play. Since I already know she’s a good player, I don’t want to be surprised if she plays better or not.”

“It feels a little bit surreal,” Osaka admitted. “Even when I was a little kid, I always dreamed that I would play Serena in a final of a Grand Slam. Just the fact that it’s happening, I’m very happy about it. At the same time I feel like even though I should enjoy this moment, I should still think of it as another match. Yeah, I shouldn’t really think of her as my idol; I should just try to play her as an opponent.”

So far only Kaia Kanepi has come close to challenging Serena through two weeks in New York (the Estonian succumbed 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 during fourth-round action. Osaka, meanwhile, has survived one three-setter of her own (against Aryna Sabalenka, also in round four) while otherwise cruising into the final.

With Serena close to her best and the enormity of the occasion in front of Osaka, this is the American’s title to win or lose.

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38 Comments on U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Serena Williams vs. Naomi Osaka

  1. I like them both. I’m hoping Serena gets closer to 25 Slams, but I find Naomi refreshing. Her interviews make me laugh. May the better player win! I’ll be happy either way.

  2. Big congrats to Osaka with her first slam. What a weird finale. Serena was not playing very well, and on top of that alot of drama with the umpire, a point penalty and a VERY important game penalty. Wow.

  3. Way to go, Osaka! Well deserved win! Too bad this fight of Serena with Carlos Ramos ruins her celebration! So unfair to Osaka, she should be honored and admired for making history…she was a better player out there and deserves to be happy not sad as she looks…I feel sorry for her…

    Serena should know the rules! Her outbursts are disgraceful…

    The crowd during the ceremony is so unfair! Shame on them!!! Poor Osaka is crying now…this is heartbreaking…

  4. That was the worst umpiring decision I have ever seen. I think Serena is absolutely right that the men routinely do worse and don’t receive penalities, much less a game penalty, which I have never seen.

    Nevertheless, Nats is right that this is unfair to Osaka, who played a great match and was the better player. I feel so sorry for her, looking like she lost instead of won. She deserves better from the crowd.

  5. Patrick clearly made a signal to step forward into the court. ThAt was not a thumbs up sign. Maybe Serena did not look his way but Patrick clearly made a sign. Serena took it too far demanding an apology , calling it character assassination , calling umpire a thief . The way she spoke with the umpire was disgraceful .Playing the woman card was just crossing all limits …

  6. Can’t give a game penalty in the USO final on serve at 4-3. Maybe if she was leading 4-0, but not with the score what it was.

    That said, absolutely agree that the way Serena spoke to the ump was totally uncalled for. She’s old enough that she should know when to leave it alone and concentrate on the match. Reminded me of her outburst against Clijsters a few years ago. She’s just entitled.

    Still, if we’re going by the book, then I’m sure we would have seen game penalties many, many times. What Serena did was no worse than what we see fairly regularly. Especially in a GS final, there should be some discretion.

    • Serena’s coach also said that Osaka’s coach was doing it, too. He even brought Rafa and Uncle Toni into it, saying that he was coaching Rafa all the time. I did not think that was necessary.

      • So, now he is additionally embarrassed himself! It was all his fault in the first place! He wouldn’t help her anyway, the coaching was totally unnecessary!

        And by bringing up Rafa and Uncle T he hits the bottom! Serena will be furious…I think she is better than this!

  7. I just think this whole thing was so unfortunate. Serena took the coaching violation too personally. Her coach did motion her to move forward, but it appears she did not see it. It doesn’t make her a cheater. She let it get under her skin. Then when she was broken back and smashed her racket, another code violation.

    I thought she needed to let it go with the chair umpire. She just went on and on, demanding that he apologize. You have to just go out there and play. But I don’t think the chair umpire should have taken away a game. You never want to influence the outcome of a slam final.

    I do think Naomi played very well and deserved to win. She should not have had to put up with the booing. At least Serena spine up and got them to stop. I don’t think the crowd knew what happened.

    This young woman deserves her moment in the spotlight.

    • Sanju, he also said that he believed Serena did not see it! But on Eurosport the channel at which I was watching the match they repeated it a few times showing Serena looking at her box and him coaching her to step inside the court.., I don’t know but I feel badly about Osaka! Serena will survive, althoug I think she should be fined for her disrespectful behavior towards Ramos…but poor Osaka will always remember this controversy instead of just being proud of herself…

      And the rules must be followed! Under the rules the player who insults the umpire the way Serena did loses a game! Carlos did nothing wrong! Serena should have controlled her temper!

  8. No. First two warnings given the rules ok by definition (although almost all coaches coach from the stands and it’s rarely called). And Lahyani-Kyrgios.

    The problem was Ramos should have shown better discretion given the context and situation. A fcukong game? In the late stages of a championship match?

    Just no.

    To think what male players get away with saying.

    Total fail.

    • Naomi would have won the match no matter what, with or without Serena’s meltdown! And if it was Naomi not Serena acting this way, she would be booed and judged by all the spectators and everyone would be supportive of Ramos fining her! Double standards!

      I don’t have sny simpathy for Serena in this incident! Great champions do not call the umpire a “liar and a thief” and simply do not behave like this!

      • That’s exactly WHY Ramos showed poor judgement. It was in his hands and he failed.

        Brad Gilbert nails it:
        “This is so sad and especially for Osaka on her tremendous level throughout the tournament, the coaching violation was ridiculous SW23 never saw it and looked liked absolutely nothing seen 50X worse and not called. Osaka was 2 games from the finish line 🏁 let the match play out”

        • How many times did Rafa and Novak get point penalty for time violation and it usually happened on key points, Ramos executing it more than often! However, I don’t recall Rafa screaming at the umpire calling him names and I also don’t recall Gilbert talking about it or defending Rafa..,.this was just one point, no reason for Serena to go wild about it…but her frustration was not Ramos, it was the fact that she wad clearly outplayed out there!

          It’s ridiculous to defend Serena’s behavior towards the umpire. But the queen thinks she is untouchable and what’s worse the false media support her barbaric behavior! Sad it is…

          At least she realized how stupid she was and acted graciously during the ceremony.,.

  9. I don’t remember the last time I’ve seen a coaching violation called! But Serena did not need to smash her racket. She did not need to start berating the umpire & calling him a thief. WTH did she think was going to happen? Yeah, I know what she thought: she’d get away with it. After all Serena is The Queen. Sorry for Naomi though, kind of ruined her big moment.

  10. In reality, there’s a problem with all three bad calls:
    1) on court coaching is rarely and inconsistently called
    2) you should be allowed to smash your racquet.
    3) a game penalty for the word thief in this context is everything that’s wrong and inconsistent about tennis.

    And I would have been happy for either player to win. Osaka is an incredible talent.

    • 1) agree Didn’t it use to be a fine, not a point penalty? Harsh to penalize a player for what a coach does.

      2) No. Remove the penalty and we’ll be “treated” to no end of racket smashes. We get enough of them as it is.

      3) A game penalty is too harsh period. Give her another point or two. But that would be a rule change. Out of the ump’s control.

      Currently I am watching Serena speaking about her “humility”. That’s a laugh. But she was gracious with Osaka during the ceremony.

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