U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Del Potro

Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro will be facing each other for the 19th time in their careers when they collide in the U.S. Open final on Sunday afternoon.

Although Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 14-4, the rivalry is far more competitive and entertaining that those numbers suggest. Seven of their last 10 encounters have required deciding sets and another during this stretch ended 7-6(4), 7-6(2) in Del Potro’s favor (in round one of the 2016 Rio Olympics). Djokovic has won each of their previous U.S. Open meetings in straight sets, but the first came back in 2007 and the second featured one of the most amazing sets of tennis in recent history (during a 2012 quarterfinal contest).

Both Djokovic and Del Potro have recovered from various physical ailments and will be ranked in the top four this coming Monday. Del Potro’s wrist problems have been well-documented for many years, but he is finally back to his borderline best with an outstanding 43-10 record this season. The reigning Indian Wells champion has advanced this fortnight with victories over Donald Young, Denis Kudla, Fernando Verdasco, Borna Coric, John Isner, and Rafael Nadal (via retirement after two sets), surrendering just one set to Isner along the way.

“I cannot believe that I will have a chance to play another Grand Slam final here, which is my favorite tournament,” Del Potro noted. “So it will be special to me…. I think I’ve been doing a good tournament. And in the final, anything can happen. If I win, great. If not, I (have) been playing a great tournament and I will be happy anyways.”

Djokovic’s woes, of course, were more recent and shorter-lived. The 13-time Grand Slam champion missed the second half of 2017 and struggled through the first four months of his 2018 comeback, but he picked up the pace with a quarterfinal performance at the French Open, a runner-up showing at Queen’s Club, and a fourth Wimbledon title. Djokovic is 12-0 in his last 12 matches with a triumph in Cincinnati and U.S. Open wins at the expense of Marton Fucsovics, Tennys Sandgren, Richard Gasquet, Joao Sousa, John Millman, and Kei Nishikori. The world No. 6 dropped sets to Fucsovics and Sandgren but has since raised his level to a significant extent.

“It will be a difficult match because we are close friends,” Del Potro explained. “For sure we both want to win. But Novak has won the Wimbledon already. He’s playing so good. He will be the favorite to win on Sunday. But I don’t know. When I played Roger (Federer) nine years ago he was the favorite to win, as well. I will try to make the surprise again.”

Djokovic won’t be caught by surprise.

“He was always a top-five player in the eyes I think of everyone,” the former world No. 1 said of Del Potro. “Even when he dropped his ranking and started to work his way up, we all knew that he has a capacity and a quality to get to the point where he is at the moment. It was just a matter of time.

“I saw today before the match against Nadal a stat that he’s the player that made most wins against No. 1s of the world. That shows the quality that he has, especially in the big matches. He’s a big-time player; he’s a big-match player; he’s a Grand Slam winner. He’s playing tennis of his life, without a doubt, in the last 15 months.”

Three of Del Potro’s four wins over Djokovic have come while playing for Argentina (two in the Olympics, one in Davis Cup) and a similar atmosphere should be in the cards on Sunday, when Del Potro will undoubtedly be the crowd favorite–led by the “Tandil Twelve,” his rowdy box of fans from his hometown.

While Djokovic is the favorite on paper, Del Potro has been the best and certainly most consistent player in brutally hot conditions throughout this tournament. It just feels like it is once again his time.

Pick: Del Potro in 5

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38 Comments on U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Del Potro

  1. Now with Fed going downhill, Rafa injured again, Stan not yet back to his previous good level, the young guns are well, the young guns, I see no one is able to stop this ‘not so great but still can win his matches by grinding’ Djoko.

    If Djoko is going to dominate again playing this way, I’m really sad that the atp tours has turned into a joke, first two senior members winning everything and then the third one joined them this year and he may even dominate again playing not so great tennis!

    Poor Delpo, first Rafa and now Djoko, he’s not going to win any slam with those two blocking his way. It makes me admire Stan a bit more, for not letting those two stopped him from winning his slams, and during their prime or even peak too. Stan is really the man!

    • That’s one way to look at it about the state of ATP. Novak is not going to dominate like he did before…I don’t think. The young guns will get going – they do certainly suck at the GS’s, though. But there’s plenty of tournaments and time for some of them to make some waves. And Stan will be back soon – maybe not full on until AO. But he’s looking good. I still hope for Andy Murray too.

      This is not the most fired up Delpo. Maybe he is depleted from days playing in that hot weather. He’s just not looking even close to his best. Too many forehands into the net. Not enough aces. Not playing clutch like we’ve seen him.

      It is disappointing from Delpo, poor guy. Shoot…he’s done.

      • RC, he will dominate at the slams and need not dominate at the smaller events or the masters, just concentrates on winning the slams, and what I said earlier about him being the ultimate G___ will come true, perhaps sooner than four or five years time!

  2. Yeah!….I thought DelPo at least could drag Nole to 4th at least….I knew Nole is really good..But win in straights against also the very good DelPo???My God!!

    • Very happy for him, MA.

      Hey don’t forget to look at the WTA Hiroshima draw. I like WTA Quebec too 😉

      Oh…Delpo. I’m sorry he couldn’t do it. Maybe there’s still a chance for him. Vamos Delpo!

      Bravo Nole ole!

      • Oh RC!!…Hehehe..I totally forgot about TDC!!Hehe….But,i’m really sucks nowadays!!….And congrats to Big Al too for winning the Bracket!….

        • LOL, you don’t suck any worse than I do! One of these days MA …when we are really smart, sharpened up from studying the players, we gonna follow Ricky’s hints, place some well-planned bets and win Big. Then I go to Malayasia to visit you! Or we fly to FO or Wibledon 😀

          Good night from Idaho. I’ll see you later.

          • Hey hey hey!…Go to bed already RC???Awwwww no!!….I still very much in dire need to chat with u!!….But i understand!…U have a busy day….Marching???

            Haaaa!….If we win big,i can go to Idaho & whisk u away to globetrotting together!!Hehehehe….Such fantasy!!Hehehe…

            Good nite RCKovic!!…From Malaysia with love!!

    • Exactly! He’s dominating at three of the four slams, not unlike Fed during his heydays.

      Fed had 4 AOs, 1FO, 6 Wimbledon and 5 USOs, total 16 slams in eight years from 2003-2010.

      Djoko has 5 AOs, 1FO, 4 Wimbledon and 3 USOs, total 13 slams in eight years from 2011-2018. And, Djoko doesn’t look like he is stopping anytime soon to win some more!

  3. Yeah!…If he’s healthy & don’t have any injury,i don’t see why he can’t add another 2,3,4 or even 5 slams in the future…For those of u who said he will never dominate again,i hope u guys hold that thought for now!…Nole meant business atm!

    • I expect more, Mira. He may win three or even four next year, and then maybe two the following year and so on. As long as he’s fit and healthy he could play his grinding game to beat anyone including Rafa, as Rafa will get injured grinding. Djoko will outgrind Rafa and anyone else.

      If Rafa wants to beat Djoko, he has to stop grinding and plays a more varied attacking game. We saw how Delpo playing a one dimensional attacking game still couldn’t do the job. Stan at least has his raw power and could attack from both wings in all directions and with depth and precision, and he’s a very fit guy so could go toe to toe with Djoko for as long as necessary.

      Fed is too old now to grind it out with Djoko, and his first strike tennis may not work as well now that he’s even older. So to me, it’s only a fit Rafa or a fit Stan who could still beat Djoko, unless someone from the young guns could start playing sustainable unbelievable tennis to beat him.

  4. nole the real #1, ties with the great pistol pete! now, that dull is ‘flash in the pan’ YE #1 is within his sights. go nole.

    pick against djoker at your own peril!

    • Federer was P.E.D.erer but eventually nothing works.

      Rafa is the GOAT and one could argue that Nole has already passed Federer putting Federer 4th best of all time.

      • Hawks, while I know you are hitting back at grassgoat (which I fully support), I’m just wondering, do you really believe Roger uses PEDs? Or do you just say that to get under the skin of assgoat?

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