U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Del Potro

Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro will be facing each other for the 19th time in their careers when they collide in the U.S. Open final on Sunday afternoon.

Although Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 14-4, the rivalry is far more competitive and entertaining that those numbers suggest. Seven of their last 10 encounters have required deciding sets and another during this stretch ended 7-6(4), 7-6(2) in Del Potro’s favor (in round one of the 2016 Rio Olympics). Djokovic has won each of their previous U.S. Open meetings in straight sets, but the first came back in 2007 and the second featured one of the most amazing sets of tennis in recent history (during a 2012 quarterfinal contest).

Both Djokovic and Del Potro have recovered from various physical ailments and will be ranked in the top four this coming Monday. Del Potro’s wrist problems have been well-documented for many years, but he is finally back to his borderline best with an outstanding 43-10 record this season. The reigning Indian Wells champion has advanced this fortnight with victories over Donald Young, Denis Kudla, Fernando Verdasco, Borna Coric, John Isner, and Rafael Nadal (via retirement after two sets), surrendering just one set to Isner along the way.

“I cannot believe that I will have a chance to play another Grand Slam final here, which is my favorite tournament,” Del Potro noted. “So it will be special to me…. I think I’ve been doing a good tournament. And in the final, anything can happen. If I win, great. If not, I (have) been playing a great tournament and I will be happy anyways.”

Djokovic’s woes, of course, were more recent and shorter-lived. The 13-time Grand Slam champion missed the second half of 2017 and struggled through the first four months of his 2018 comeback, but he picked up the pace with a quarterfinal performance at the French Open, a runner-up showing at Queen’s Club, and a fourth Wimbledon title. Djokovic is 12-0 in his last 12 matches with a triumph in Cincinnati and U.S. Open wins at the expense of Marton Fucsovics, Tennys Sandgren, Richard Gasquet, Joao Sousa, John Millman, and Kei Nishikori. The world No. 6 dropped sets to Fucsovics and Sandgren but has since raised his level to a significant extent.

“It will be a difficult match because we are close friends,” Del Potro explained. “For sure we both want to win. But Novak has won the Wimbledon already. He’s playing so good. He will be the favorite to win on Sunday. But I don’t know. When I played Roger (Federer) nine years ago he was the favorite to win, as well. I will try to make the surprise again.”

Djokovic won’t be caught by surprise.

“He was always a top-five player in the eyes I think of everyone,” the former world No. 1 said of Del Potro. “Even when he dropped his ranking and started to work his way up, we all knew that he has a capacity and a quality to get to the point where he is at the moment. It was just a matter of time.

“I saw today before the match against Nadal a stat that he’s the player that made most wins against No. 1s of the world. That shows the quality that he has, especially in the big matches. He’s a big-time player; he’s a big-match player; he’s a Grand Slam winner. He’s playing tennis of his life, without a doubt, in the last 15 months.”

Three of Del Potro’s four wins over Djokovic have come while playing for Argentina (two in the Olympics, one in Davis Cup) and a similar atmosphere should be in the cards on Sunday, when Del Potro will undoubtedly be the crowd favorite–led by the “Tandil Twelve,” his rowdy box of fans from his hometown.

While Djokovic is the favorite on paper, Del Potro has been the best and certainly most consistent player in brutally hot conditions throughout this tournament. It just feels like it is once again his time.

Pick: Del Potro in 5

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32 Comments on U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Del Potro

  1. I will go with Nole in 4…Nole’s mental strength is almost at the level of his dominant years…And he’s healthy….I think it is a tough task for DelPo to face this Nole…he’s too good…. But of coz i’m happy if DelPo win….God knows,they’re both totally deserve it!….C’mon!Bring it on!!

    • Yeah agree, that Delpo has to finish the match within four sets if he wants to win it.

      I think we can’t underestimate Delpo’s desire to win, esp after watching how he saved MP against Fed at IW and ended up winning. Delpo is not Cilic, he’s consistent and never gives up, calm and determined and will fight till the very end.

  2. The Wimbledon QF vs Rafa comes to mind, I doubt Djoko would have it easy vs Delpo; if Delpo was so formidable at Wimbledon, I think he would be even tougher to beat at the USO.

    • Also the 5 set sf at wimby where he almost beat nole on one leg!! He is playing better now, is physically stronger and has had loads of rest. The only thing I worry about is that because he hasn’t been in a slam final for so long that he will want it too much and be nervy or over hit and end up donating the first set.

  3. Normally i would agree that Delpo has to finish it before the fifth but this year he had 2_days rest and then only had to play 2 sets against Rafa. So he has plenty of gas in the tank. I worry more that he hasn’t been in a slam final for so long that he will want it too much and be nervy/go for too much in the first set and give it away.
    Still he held up really well in the Olympics when he was in worse shape beating Nole Rafa and getting very close to Andy…If he hadn’t been so tired he would probably have won. That was on a slow hard court as well as I remember. It may have been bo3 but he is playing a lot better now and is stronger. There is no question he can win.
    Vamos Delpo!!

  4. Either winning in 5 sets.

    Over should be the best and safe winner here.

    Will root for both and enjoy the game as both are great players. Period!lol

      • I don’t know either — seems like not a lot of tension in this match like there would be if Nole was playing Fed or Rafa.

        Feels routine by Nole. I started doing my WTA brackets and eating Nachos.

        Time to pay more attention I at least want Delpo to get his fans going and put up a good fight. Vamos Delpo — get a set. Definitely louder cheers when Delpo wins a point – which is what I’d expect but I don’t like it. Delpo over-hitting the FH. About ready to get broken by Nole again….

        Yes, Nole gets the break. But Delpo should try to be more patient. I can see why he feels he has go for his shots but I was hoping set 2 would go to a TB and Delpo would scrape by with the set.

          • No no, Big Al. Just a couple easy WTA ones ;D
            Hiroshima – a new one
            Quebec
            If you look at the draws you just let yourself get drawn it lol

          • Yeah, I got drawn into the Hiro one!
            Remember watching the Tokyo one last year with a lot of the same players .

            At least we get a break from the ATP this week , Im predicted out

          • It’s programmed into my weekly routine – completely habitual to do brackets at this point.

            Picked Q.Wang for Hiroshima but might switch it
            Sabalenka is in Quebec 😀

  5. Comparing Delpo and Stan, I think Stan has the firepower from both wings be it CC or DTL. Delpo hasn’t a good BH that he could hit it DTL and he slices it CC most of the time.

    It’s no wonder Stan gave Djoko plenty of problems in a slam final, simply overpowered Djoko from both wings. Delpo could only rely on his FH, and yet he’s engaging in CC BH exchanges with Djoko most of the times.

  6. Oh dear, it may turn out to be a straight sets win for Djoko! I think I’ve overestimated Delpo’s ability here. It seems that only a Stan at his best has the firepower to overpower this Djoko. Rafa OTOH will have to engage in a grind fest with this Djoko.

    • Hello Dear Alison. Nice to read you here. I’m fine – busy. My energy is full on into helping get the Democrats to flip the Congress – fighting against Trumps nominee for Supreme court justice. Lots of work will go into the mid-term elections, I tell ya. We got to try to get this lying creep nominee for Scotus to go away.

      Are you enjoying the evening/ night 😀

      Oh golly, Delpo has another bp…second serve coming again….shoot to impatient again by the big guy. Still deuce

  7. Delpo was magical in Rio. And Delpo plays his heart out for Davis Cup. The chemistry between these two is a bit flat.

    But Delpo finally has a break point…
    Ah but just like the last time, he over-hits it.

    Lucky break Nole gives him another bp. Okay 2nd serve..
    And Delpo gets it! Yay, amy. You’d have like that.

    At least it’s even again. Now come on hold your serve, Delpo. Stay alert. Bring the serve weapon out. Every shot has to be perfect or Nole will get it back…so far.

    Nole irritated by the Delpo chorus boys.

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