U.S. Open final expert picks: Nishikori vs. Cilic

September 7, 2014 Ricky Match previews 0

A five-team panel previews and picks a most unexpected U.S. Open final that will take place on Monday evening at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Either Kei Nishikori or Marin Cilic will capture his first Grand Slam title.

(10) Kei Nishikori vs. (14) Marin Cilic

Ricky: Nishikori leads the head-to-head series 5-2, including 2-0 this season. Their Barcelona encounter was a blowout, but that can be attributed to a clay-court surface on which Cilic’s game does not work as well. Unless one of these two finalists collapses mentally amidst the weight of the occasion, it’s hard to imagine this one being anything but extremely competitive. Nishikori has put forth the effort of his life this fortnight, with five-set upsets of Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka before a Saturday stunner over Novak Djokovic. Cilic is coming off ruthless beatdowns of Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer. As well as Nishikori has played, he survived both Raonic and Wawrinka by the slimmest of margins and benefited greatly from an off day by Djokovic. The world No. 11 will win most of the neutral baseline rallies but Cilic is serving huge and hitting massive groundstrokes, to the extent that he should be able to hold serve on a consistent basis even against an awesome baseliner in Nishikori. One or two loose service games will make the difference, and those are more likely to come from Nishikori–in part because Cilic enjoyed the returning day of his life against Federer and is brimming with confidence in all areas of the game. Cilic 6-2, 3-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3.
Cilic 4

Steen: This is a U.S. Open final that literally no one was expecting and it still has the potential to be a great match. Two players full of desire who have had strong, driven seasons will seek to win a first Grand Slam title. Cilic has had an impeccable year, coming off of a four-month suspension last season and his serving and power game–especially against Federer–really has been spot on. Nishikori, who actually considered skipping the U.S. Open due to injury, has raised his market value considerably and is finally making good on his considerable promise. His easy power, reliable compact strokes, quality movement, and overall tenacity were on display against Djokvic and also against Raonic and Wawrinka. Thanks to how poorly Berdych played in their quarterfinal, Cilic has had an easier route to the final. Nishikori is 3-2 in outdoor hard-court meetings between the two finalists (including a win this year in Brisbane), but I’m picking Cilic. Most of their hard-court encounters have been quite close and Cilic should be the fresher player having played just six sets in his last two matches compared to nine for Nishikori–who had previously been known for his fragility. Cilic 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-4.

Joey: I was at Nishikori’s round of 16 match against Raonic and after going down two sets to one, Nishikori looked like he was ready to throw in the towel. After getting some painkillers, he looked like a new man. Nishikori is a guy who has probably worked too hard over the years, which is why his body tends to fail him. However, that hard work has paid off in a huge way in New York. I logged Cilic’s third-round encounter against Kevin Anderson and it was not pretty, with Cilic converting only six of 20 break points. He got through that one and then struggled against Gilles Simon in the next round, eventually outlasting the Frenchman in five sets. The Croat’s next two matches were literally the exact opposite, with Cilic going 6-0 in sets against Berdych and Federer while playing the best tennis of his life. So, yeah, this is very hard to pick. If Cilic plays like he did against Federer and Berdych, he wins. But I don’t see that happening in his first Grand Slam final. Nishikori’s backhand down the line will make the difference. Nishikori 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-5.
NishiEdited
Jared: For the first time in more than 10 years, a Grand Slam final will be contested between two first-time finalists as Nishikori and Cilic battle to become the eighth active player with a major title. Nishikori entered this tournament after missing the last three weeks of tennis due to injury and having played only one hard-court tournament since withdrawing prior to the Miami semifinals. However, he took out the No. 5 and No. 3 seeds en route to his first career slam semifinal, in which he dismissed the top-ranked Djokovic in impressive fashion. Cilic, on the other hand, benefited from a weak quarter of the draw but he earned his spot in the final with a straight-set victory over Federer–whom many picked to win the title. Opportunity knocks for both players in the first final since 2002 at Roland Garros to feature two players outside the top 10. Nishikori has won each of the pair’s last three meetings, but Cilic’s improved serve will make the difference in this match. Cilic 4-6, 6-3, 7-6, 7-5.

Pete: What a difference one year makes! At the 2013 U.S. Open, Nishikori lost in straight sets in the first round to world No. 179 Daniel Evans and Cilic was serving a suspension. Impressive names have defeated Cilic in his last five U.S. Open appearances: eventual champion Andy Murray in ’12, Federer in ’11, Nishikori in ’10, eventual champion Juan Martin Del Potro in ’09, and Djokovic in ’08. His time away from the game last year allowed Cilic to rest and he returned to the ATP circuit more mature, determined, and hungry to win. While Cilic played Toronto and Cincinnati, Nishikori’s preparation for this event consisted of three matches in Washington, D.C. He missed the hard-court Masters 1000s due to injury and his status for the U.S. Open remained in doubt as a result. Both men have recorded impressive victories, especially in Saturday’s semifinals. Although it is Cilic vs. Nishikori on the court, it will concurrently be an anticipated chess match between their respective coaches: Goran Ivanisevic and Michael Chang. Speed chess wins the match on Monday. Cilic 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

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39 Comments on U.S. Open final expert picks: Nishikori vs. Cilic

  1. Cilic deserves to be in the top 4. He is not just a big server, he has developed an effective and lethal ground game. However, his ground game can be neutralized by a good returner but it’s way better than Raonic’s.

    Reply

  5. I hope Cilic shows some continuity from now on…hate to see him wining this and then disappear and being beaten by nobody…and I hope top 4 to come back to tennis for a change…and for me true top four are Rafa, Nole, Fed and Andy…the rest are there just for the reason that these four are not on top of their game…Murray is lost, Rafa is injured, Nole is more interested in his new role as a father…Fed may end up being the winner of the circumstances… again… 🙂

    Reply

  6. Cilic didn’t play this well before he beat Federer, he even struggled to beat Simon but his serve was lethal yesterday or maybe Kei was fatigued and didn’t make a good feast of the returns. It would be interesting to see where Cilic goes from here. He has improved a lot from when he won Queens by default after Nalby had that wobbly. Cilic look so embarrassed holding the trophy.

    Watch the bookies making Cilic the favourite for everything now, pushing Djoker’s nose out of joint.

    Reply

  7. Wawa played a _relatively_ easy draw at the AO and then played someone in the final who might as well have been a player seeded #150, with such an acute back injury. Wawa was really lucky.

    Cilic has earned this one 5 times more. Yes, he was a little lucky that he didn’t have to play Novak or (a healthy) Rafa in the final after beating Roger, but still.

    It should be much easier for him now to win a second slam some day. Not gonna happen for sure. But much easier.

    Should be easier for Kei to go deep again in the slams. He doesn’t have Wawa’s height, but better overall package, including mental.

    #BetweenTheEars

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    • agreed with the first part

      disagree that Nishikori has a better chance to go deep in future slams than Stan does. Definitely not true.

      Reply

      • I agree with Ricky. I may still dislike Stan for what he did to Rafa when he was injured in the AO final, but he had been knocking on the door the previous year. The two battles he had with Novak in the 2013 AO and the USO semis. He could have won either of those matches. He was getting closer. Then he managed to knock out Novak in the 2014 AO. So he did at least beat Novak on the way to the final. He didn’t earn that win because Rafa was too injured to be able to play. But that doesn’t negate what he did up to that point.

        We saw with Kei in the final that he just had nothing left. It’s true that he had a tough path, beating Raonic, Stan and Novak. But that’s what it takes if you want to win a final. He has to stay healthy and also continue to work on his fitness. I don’t think the top players are in danger at this point. It was like a perfect storm with Rafa out, Murray having to meet Novak in the quarterfinals not playing his best and Fed at this point in his career not able to even get past players now who aren’t at the top.

        The oddsmakers seem to realize that order should be restored for the 2015 AO.

        Reply

    • I agree that Kei has a better chance to go deeper than subStandard in future slams. subStandard has peaked and Kei continues to improve and is only 25 whereas Stan has overachieved and is on the fade.

      Also Kei has a much better attitude than subStandard has shown after winning a major.

      #PrimaDonna

      Reply

      • Stan will play more slams in his prime and will play more of the ones they do play at 100 percent. Kei is way more injury prone and fragile.

        plus, Stan has more talent. he is more prone to first-round losses but also way more prone to go deep.

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      • Future tense should not be used when referring to Stanford’s time. He has peaked He had a USO SF followed by a W due to injury but nothing in his last three slams and is quickly returning to his norm.

        Kei’s competition in his prime will not be as tough as it was for Stanford.

        They are going in opposite directions.

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      • Well he is not yet 25 so think with this final appearance it has just begun. His game has improved significantly this year.

        He beat Fed in Miami this year, won Barcelona and should have beaten Rafa in the Madrid final.

        Defeating Raonic, Stanford, Djokovic and getting to the finals at the USO after just three hardcourt matches in DC prior to the USO is very impressive.

        So he’s been able to play fantastic beating Federer, Djokovic and thrashing Rafa on clay prior to injuring himself despite all of the time he has missed.

        So, for Me he is in his prime now until he is not in his prime any more say for the next 3-4 years whereas Stanford’s prime is maybe 12 months and that’s leaning towards the generous side.

        Of course, if his injuries continue as they did this year then, as you say, he won’t play enough but that’s premature IMO.

        #YoureWelcomeMyFan
        #DoYou???

        Reply

      • As much as I like Kei, I am not sure he will make another GS final. To me it seems that he falls into the Change-Hewitt-energizer bunny prototype: Run run run fast faster fastest. Hewitt won 2 slams in a week era, and Chang got overpowered by the Sampras-Agassi-Courier trifecta. Kei is too injury-prone and too many big hitters are starting to rise up.

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  8. @Jeu Nadal,

    I think you may be right. I don’t know that it’s even about comparing Kei and Stan’s chances. It’s true that Stan is older and took longer to finally come into his own. But I think that you are correct in saying that Kei is in the same mould as the Chang/Hewitts. Chang just came along at the wrong time and was only able to win one slam.

    Kei’s Achilles heel is his tendency to get injured. That really hurt him this year. I also think that he may be at a disadvantage against guys like Cilic, Jerzy, Theim, Kyrgios, etc. I would love to see him do well because he doesn’t just rely on a big serve and then blasting on big forehand. I love his game. But he may find himself in an era of big hitters once the current top four are gone or past their prime.
    .

    Reply

  9. Have to admit I was disappointed by Kei’s meek capitulation in the final. Whether this was nerves, he peaked too soon, or he lost momentum due to the two day break before the showdown. Possibly all three. Whatever he was a shadow of the Kei who faced down tough competition in all his matches before.

    It’ll be interesting too see where Cilic goes from here.

    Reply

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