U.S. Open final expert picks: Nishikori vs. Cilic

Ricky: Nishikori leads the head-to-head series 5-2, including 2-0 this season. Their Barcelona encounter was a blowout, but that can be attributed to a clay-court surface on which Cilic’s game does not work as well. Unless one of these two finalists collapses mentally amidst the weight of the occasion, it’s hard to imagine this one being anything but extremely competitive. Nishikori has put forth the effort of his life this fortnight, with five-set upsets of Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka before a Saturday stunner over Novak Djokovic. Cilic is coming off ruthless beatdowns of Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer. As well as Nishikori has played, he survived both Raonic and Wawrinka by the slimmest of margins and benefited greatly from an off day by Djokovic. The world No. 11 will win most of the neutral baseline rallies but Cilic is serving huge and hitting massive groundstrokes, to the extent that he should be able to hold serve on a consistent basis even against an awesome baseliner in Nishikori. One or two loose service games will make the difference, and those are more likely to come from Nishikori–in part because Cilic enjoyed the returning day of his life against Federer and is brimming with confidence in all areas of the game. Cilic 6-2, 3-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3.

Steen: This is a U.S. Open final that literally no one was expecting and it still has the potential to be a great match. Two players full of desire who have had strong, driven seasons will seek to win a first Grand Slam title. Cilic has had an impeccable year, coming off of a four-month suspension last season and his serving and power game–especially against Federer–really has been spot on. Nishikori, who actually considered skipping the U.S. Open due to injury, has raised his market value considerably and is finally making good on his considerable promise. His easy power, reliable compact strokes, quality movement, and overall tenacity were on display against Djokvic and also against Raonic and Wawrinka. Thanks to how poorly Berdych played in their quarterfinal, Cilic has had an easier route to the final. Nishikori is 3-2 in outdoor hard-court meetings between the two finalists (including a win this year in Brisbane), but I’m picking Cilic. Most of their hard-court encounters have been quite close and Cilic should be the fresher player having played just six sets in his last two matches compared to nine for Nishikori–who had previously been known for his fragility. Cilic 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-4.

Joey: I was at Nishikori’s round of 16 match against Raonic and after going down two sets to one, Nishikori looked like he was ready to throw in the towel. After getting some painkillers, he looked like a new man. Nishikori is a guy who has probably worked too hard over the years, which is why his body tends to fail him. However, that hard work has paid off in a huge way in New York. I logged Cilic’s third-round encounter against Kevin Anderson and it was not pretty, with Cilic converting only six of 20 break points. He got through that one and then struggled against Gilles Simon in the next round, eventually outlasting the Frenchman in five sets. The Croat’s next two matches were literally the exact opposite, with Cilic going 6-0 in sets against Berdych and Federer while playing the best tennis of his life. So, yeah, this is very hard to pick. If Cilic plays like he did against Federer and Berdych, he wins. But I don’t see that happening in his first Grand Slam final. Nishikori’s backhand down the line will make the difference. Nishikori 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-5.

Jared: For the first time in more than 10 years, a Grand Slam final will be contested between two first-time finalists as Nishikori and Cilic battle to become the eighth active player with a major title. Nishikori entered this tournament after missing the last three weeks of tennis due to injury and having played only one hard-court tournament since withdrawing prior to the Miami semifinals. However, he took out the No. 5 and No. 3 seeds en route to his first career slam semifinal, in which he dismissed the top-ranked Djokovic in impressive fashion. Cilic, on the other hand, benefited from a weak quarter of the draw but he earned his spot in the final with a straight-set victory over Federer–whom many picked to win the title. Opportunity knocks for both players in the first final since 2002 at Roland Garros to feature two players outside the top 10. Nishikori has won each of the pair’s last three meetings, but Cilic’s improved serve will make the difference in this match. Cilic 4-6, 6-3, 7-6, 7-5.

Pete: What a difference one year makes! At the 2013 U.S. Open, Nishikori lost in straight sets in the first round to world No. 179 Daniel Evans and Cilic was serving a suspension. Impressive names have defeated Cilic in his last five U.S. Open appearances: eventual champion Andy Murray in ’12, Federer in ’11, Nishikori in ’10, eventual champion Juan Martin Del Potro in ’09, and Djokovic in ’08. His time away from the game last year allowed Cilic to rest and he returned to the ATP circuit more mature, determined, and hungry to win. While Cilic played Toronto and Cincinnati, Nishikori’s preparation for this event consisted of three matches in Washington, D.C. He missed the hard-court Masters 1000s due to injury and his status for the U.S. Open remained in doubt as a result. Both men have recorded impressive victories, especially in Saturday’s semifinals. Although it is Cilic vs. Nishikori on the court, it will concurrently be an anticipated chess match between their respective coaches: Goran Ivanisevic and Michael Chang. Speed chess wins the match on Monday. Cilic 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

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