A five-team panel previews and predicts the outcome for Sunday’s U.S. Open final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. The top two players in the world are squaring off in a second consecutive slam title match.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Roger Federer
Ricky Dimon (The Grandstand): Djokovic vs. Federer is the best rivalry in tennis right now and it’s one that could be tied at 21-21 after their 42nd meeting on Sunday afternoon in New York. That will be the case if Djokovic gets the job done and captures his third major title of the year. In order to do so, however, the world No. 1 will have to beat the man who is playing better tennis these days than anyone else on this planet. There is no debate about said fact. The question is: can Federer continue to play this level of tennis against this particular opponent from start to finish in a best-of-five situation? The 34-year-old took care of Djokovic without too much trouble last month in Cincinnati, but four of their last five slam encounters have gone Djokovic’s way–including in this summer’s Wimbledon championship match. Although the top-seeded Serb has not been at his very best this fortnight, he picked up the pace in a semifinal rout of defending champion Marin Cilic and he is quite simply far better–and more motivated–at this tournament than he is in Cincinnati. A familiar result will take place: Federer comes out blazing before Djokovic breaks him down in the end. Djokovic 3-6, 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Federer and Djokovic are meeting for the sixth time this year–all in finals. Amazingly, it will be Federer’s first appearance in a U.S. Open title match since 2009, while Djokovic is seeking to win his third major of the year but the U.S. Open for just the second time. The margin between the top two players in the world is very slim when they match up and this time around I put the winning probability at 50.5 percent for Djokovic and 49.5 percent for Federer. The Swiss went into this year’s Wimbledon final after playing an immaculate semifinal against Andy Murray, but this hardly mattered when he faced Djokovic for the title. Similarly, Federer’s spectacular play in the quarters against Richard Gasquet and semis versus Stan Wawrinka the last few days will not factor in when he battles the world No. 1. The two last met just three weeks ago in Cincinnati, where the only break point of eight opportunities that Federer managed to “win” was on a Djokovic double-fault. Despite the fact that Federer is serving impeccably well on the fast American hard courts, his inability to break Djokovic when he has the opportunities to do so will continue proving to be expensive and ultimately the difference in New York. Djokovic will need to defeat a vintage Federer as well as an overwhelming pro-Federer crowd. He will do so with steely determination and focus that will lead him to the title. Djokovic 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3, 5-7, 6-3.
Steen Kirby (Tennis Atlantic): Federer hasn’t dropped a set all summer on hard courts, while Djokovic shook off any second-week cobwebs and demolished Marin Cilic to setup this mouthwatering final. Federer’s recent win over Djokovic in Cincinccati–and his trek to that title without dropping a set–should boost his confidence and aggression, though he has not beaten Djokovic in a slam in quite some time. This vintage and fresh Federer is whom I’m going with in an upset, presuming he can out shot-make his counter-punching opponent and shorten the points. Look for Federer to win what could be his final Grand Slam. Federer 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6.
Jared Pine (the Second Serb): Federer and Djokovic have separated themselves from the rest of the tennis world and the degree to which they have done so was evident in their two semifinal wins that took less than 100 minutes each. The final everyone expected ever since Federer secured the No. 2 seed–guaranteeing he would not be in Djokovic’s half of the draw–is the final that we will get. The top two players in the world right now are the only two players in tennis history to have earned 10,000 ranking points or more in at least three of the majors. Both of these players are rewriting the record books with every match they play, meaning we are in store for a historical match when these two square off. Federer has not beaten Djokovic in a best-of-five match since 2012 and has not beaten the Serb at the U.S. Open since 2009. However, Federer had not reached this stage of a hard-court slam since January 2010 before he blew past his countryman to return to the U.S. Open final. As great as Federer has been in 2015, his endurance has never been tested as none of his matches have gone to a fifth set. Meanwhile, Djokovic is a perfect 3-0 in fifth sets in 2015, winning them 6-0, 6-1, and 7-5. In fact, Djokovic’s last fifth set before that was a 6-4 win over Federer in the 2014 Wimbledon final. If this match goes five, Djokovic will prevail just as he did in their U.S. Open showdowns in 2010 and 2011. Djokovic 4-6, 7-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.
Joey Hanf (The Tennis Nerds): After two blowout semifinals, tennis fans should be grateful that they once again get to witness what is currently the greatest rivalry in tennis. When Federer and Djokovic face off for the 42nd time, there will be no surprises for either player. Their styles of play compliment each other, and as Federer has said, both guys don’t have to change the way they play when they face off against one another. While Federer has looked better throughout the tournament as a whole, Djokovic was machine-like in his demolition of Cilic. This feels very similar to when each was going into the Wimbledon final, with many considering Federer to be in the better form. Still, Djokovic neutralizes many of Federer’s biggest weapons–most notably the serve. The SABR will play an important role in this match–not based on how many points Federer wins with it, but instead to see how many different return positions he uses against Djokovic. The Serb is probably the toughest player on tour to get out of rhythm, but Federer is the only player who can do so on a consistent basis. Federer will need to play some ultra-short points but also grind a few long rallies to keep Djokovic guessing. The greatest thing about this rivalry is that the better player almost always wins on that day. The atmosphere inside of Ashe should be incredible as Federer and Djokovic battle for the last major of the year. Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4), 7-5.
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who ya got?
One thing for sure is that the outcome of the match will mainly depend on Federer. If he plays like he’s been playing for the last couple of weeks, the title is for him. Plus the 1st serve will be the key. Otherwise, bye Roger.
If Roger plays well : Federer 6-3 4-6 7-5 6-4
If Roger doesn’t play well : Djokovic 6-3 2-6 6-4 6-3
this is a true statement
exactly. if fed starts quick and maintains that level he will win. if he starts slow djokovic will pounce.
When most people are predicting a Djokovic win and quite logically so, I am going against the tide and picking Federer to win the title in 3 sets, much like their 2007 US Open final.
This time Federer should have a better serving day than their Wimbledon final as he has been serving well consistently all throughout the NA hard court series and he will be ultra aggressive from start to end as is evident from his recent matches. He is returning better than he did last time they played in a major final. So, he will have more opportunities to make inroads into Djokovic’s service games.
This prediction is purely based on current form of both players after Wimbledon and the fact that Djokovic is actually not as good on fast hard courts as he is on slower ones.
However, a Djokovic win in 3 or 4 sets is more likely considering their recent history in majors.
Mark,
Aren’t you kind of trying to have it both ways with your prediction? It’s like you are picking Fed, but then if this or that happens. then Novak will win. The experts had to make their picks without going both ways or putting in caveats.
I am not saying that you can’t do it, but it’s not tough to say Fed will win, but it’s more likely that Novak will win. That’s hedging your bets. You can certainly do that, but it’s kind of going back and forth.
I think this one could go either way. But I remember all the talk about Fed winning this time because he was playing so well and it was Wimbledon and that was it. It didn’t pan out that way. I picked Novak to win that one. But this time I feel that Fed has gone up a gear. He seems really focused and intent on getting it done. He’s serving even better and being more aggressive. That’s why it’s hard for me to make my prediction. In the end, it’s not a big deal if I am wrong. I’ve been wrong too many times to count. But I usually give more thought when it’s a slam final because so much is on the line.
Fed wants this so much he can taste it. But Novak at his best is so hard to take down at a slam. I read all of the expert’s picks and most of them are going with Novak. For now I am going with Novak in 4 or 5 sets. But when I get up in the morning I may change my mind.
#LMFAO
True NNY. I may be trying to have it both ways. I think Federer is playing as good as he can at this stage of his career. Considering he is a step slower and a little depleted staminawise, he has done a good enough job of reaching the last two major finals by playing a very enterprising brand of tennis. But, this was not enough to win against a very efficient and rock solid Djokovic in the Wimbledon final.
Federer is playing almost at the same level, if not better.
Will this be enough this time?
I believe his perseverance and improvements in his game will be rewarded this time with a win in a major final. So, I am going with Federer for the win in 3 sets.
If Djokovic wins, I would have to say: Too Good.
I have just noticed that there is another user with the same moniker ‘Mark’.
I thought the same moniker cannot be used by two. Do you have a solution..Ricky?
Change yours to Mark194703894275019273654?
Novak isnt doing too badly on quick HCs. Also i dont think the court here is any quicker or as quick as Cincy or Dubai or Wimbledon. Without the wind Novak should be doing better than in the past years.
If Novak can serve and return well like he did at Wimbledon, and hes serving a high % first serve, he shouldnt worry too much about Fed’s SABR. Hes a good returner of serves himself so Fed too has to serve very well.
This is quite an intriguing match for theres no clear cut advantage in this match up by either party so either party could win. No horse in this race so I can watch it with calm, unlike Rafa’s matches.
fed’s ground strokes have been 3mph slower here than at cincy….that must also mean that his serve is slightly slower …. that’s an advantage to nole…
Mark,
Thanks for your reply. This really is a hard one to pick. I wasn’t criticizing you at all. In fact, I totally understand why you said it the way you did. In truth, there are some caveats in which one or the other will win. So I think what you said was fair. I have slept on it and feel now that I just cannot call this one. It’s too close. I will just sit back and watch it.
Reblogged this on Tennis Abides.
lucky,
I appreciate your analysis. I said that I might come on here in the morning and change my prediction. I honestly think this could go either way. I think you make a good point about the wind. That has troubled Novak in past years.
So at this point all I will say is that it’s a toss up.
Novak in 4, 67 75 64 63.
4 for either seems to be a trendy pick
Roger in 3. 6-4 7-6(5) 7-5
Like I said two weeks ago, Fed to get his 18
In three most likely. Four max.
SABR style.
Fed in 5 or Novak in 4. No way this game will end in 3 sets, no way.
I’ll take Fed 6-3 7-6(4) 4-6 6-3 with only a few breaks throughout the match.
Common scene, Roger loses his guts whenever Novak or Rafa is opposite the net.
Fed may win this battle , keep motivate to prolong his career!
Fed and Rafa made the mistake of feeding Novak with pace, should vary the pace, give him some soft balls.
Murray and Simon could do that, ie vary the pace. I hope Murray reaches the final to deal with this Novak. Novak looks like he’s making the final soon.
So, Rafa wasnt the only one getting a 6-1 beating by Novak, Fed has just gotten that.
? glad rafa is not the only recipient of the novak breadstick
At least Rafa at Doha wasnt playing at the top of his game and was stretched in the earlier rounds. This Fed, he was beating every one so comfortably, only a blip vs Dimi, and Berydch in set 1.
This Novak is unplayable – in the zone just like in Doha final; we need a Simon type of player to give him problem. Murray please listen – reaches the final and then varies your pace to deal with Novak; no hard hitting please.
Where is the love for djoko? Hardly any cheers for the world no 1
Novak making roger look like a first round opponent
Mirka is dumbfounded. What is Djoker on?
This is kind of enjoyable when rafa is not at the receiving end? but what has djoko become! Murray may as well go back home to be with his wife should he win his semi
Murray will have his chances; he is not Fed type of player. He will prolong the rallies, feed Novak with different balls.
Fed plays so quickly and he is playing into Novak’s hands now.
Not if Djokovic plays like this
Milos would have a better chance of taking Djokovic to a tiebreaker
Lets see. Milos cant run and his pace of shots Novak would welcome. Novak also is good returner of shots so Raonic will feel pressurized when serving.
told ya…novak’s the heavy favourite… shocked to see so man picking federer here and saying the outcome depends more on him? :s
I posted last night but my post did not come through so then I went to sleep…
I just reached my office. Has fed used SABR? haha
It wouldn’t be so bad if Djoker’s game was pleasing to watch. It’s worse than watching a robot play.
I wouldn’t pay to watch this, that’s for sure.
Novak seems to be on a mission to make a mockery of goat credentials of rafa and roger. This seems to be his version of french 2008
Wilander has just mentioned the beat down Fed got from Rafa at RG in the 2008 final.
Roger seems resigned
as he should
I wonder if Rafa is watching.
I dont think so but I’m sure both Murray and Raonic are watching.
that’s why I wanted stan to be there… his brand of tennis is the biggest challenge for novak to face here…
What djokovic is doing right now is beyond astonishing. Please roger,win more than 4 games! hehe
He won four already, what a relief….for him!
Why are we commenting on this thread?
what! this US Open final !! I did not even realize. I just clicked on the last comment and it brought me here lol
why are we?
Oh my freaking god. Djoko !!!! Can he give a worse beatdown than rg 2008. Doha scoreline already in the first two sets
lol roger needs 2 more games to clear that 😛
Read somewhere that roger was surprised by the doha scoreline.
lolll yes he said that..
So Fed lost first two sets exactly the same score as Rafa at Doha. Did Novak take the same time ie 54 mins too to beat Rafa, or shorter?
Rafa was getting so much griefs from us his fans at that time, now we know how unplayable Novak was then and is now.
Djoko is playing some really ‘never seen before’ kind of tennis right now.
Incredible!
Looks like DJokovic will end his career as the greatest hard court player, fed as the greatest grass court player and Rafa as the greatest clay court player. All from the same era…
Highly debatable. In the case of Federer. I know statistically on most counts, he is the best grass courter, but going by winning percentage and sheer game, I’d put Sampras above him.
One consolation for roger is that he does not have to endure another runners up ceremony. Rooting for fed to take two more games so that worst beatdown on roger record stays with rafa
Well done Fed! he has now won 5 games. The record is safe.
Is that so consolation for Fed?
Mikkers has pointed that this thread ia about the USO Final!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is the correct thread:
https://tenngrand.com/2016/01/26/australian-open-sf-preview-and-prediction-djokovic-vs-federer/
Goodness me, Novak with magic hands there! Poor Fed, at the net but cant do anything to Novak’s passing shot.
I blame BB. He has created this monster 🙁
Wow that was unusual. I just wrote an very long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear.
Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyhow, just wanted to say fantastic blog!