U.S. Open draw analysis: Djokovic gets Murray, Nadal could face Federer

It’s not easy to overshadow a potential rematch of the most recent U.S. Open final in the semis of this year’s installment. The 2013 draw, however, arguably managed to do it. That’s because Rafael Nadal’s path through his quarter of the bracket is an intriguing one, to say the least. The Montreal and Cincinnati champion may have to deal with John Isner once again in the fourth round before another quarterfinal showdown with Roger Federer.

On the other side, it’s likely all about 2012 runner-up Novak Djokovic and 2012 champion Andy Murray. But they may not have a cakewalk to semifinal Saturday, because the two most consistent of the 5-8 seeds—Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro—also find themselves in the top half.

Djokovic’s quarter

The world No. 1’s draw is difficult in that Murray looms large as a possible semifinal opponent, but the rest of it is not unkind even though it may look somewhat daunting on paper. Grigor Dimitrov, who upset Djokovic earlier this season in Madrid, is a potential third-round adversary. However, the Bulgarian is not as dangerous in a best-of-five format (case in point: Djokovic destroyed him in round three of the French Open). Last year’s quarterfinal between Djokovic and Del Potro was outrageously entertaining, complete with perhaps the season’s best set of tennis. They are on course to meet again at the same stage, but Del Potro—despite a Washington, D.C. title and a semifinal finish in Cincinnati—may not be 100 percent.

Djokovic’s road to the last eight should be a breeze, but there will be plenty of week-one entertainment elsewhere in the draw. Mercurial performers Fabio Fognini and Benoit Paire are on a collision course for what would be a wild third-rounder. Dimitrov may have to go up against Wimbledon quarterfinals Lukasz Kubot in his second match. On the other side of this section, Tommy Haas could face Mikhail Youzhny in the third round and Del Potro in the fourth. By no stretch of the imagination is it a favorable draw for Del Potro, who is likely to get a date with Lleyton Hewitt in round two.

Best first-round matchup — Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. David Goffin

Both players were in dreadful form earlier this season but have heated up late in the summer. Dolgopolov currently finds himself in the Winston-Salem semifinals. Goffin won a Challenger title in July, qualified in both Montreal in Cincinnati (reached the third round), and advanced one round in Winston-Salem before losing to Dmitry Tursunov in three sets. This should be a nice contrast in styles between the Ukrainian’s quirkiness and Goffin’s rock-solid ball-striking.

Best potential second-round matchup – (6) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Lleyton Hewitt
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Fabio Fognini vs. (24) Benoit Paire

Possible surprises — Ricardas Berankis over Djokovic? Nope. Lukas Rosol over Djokovic in the second round? Nope. There could be a surprise, though, in the No. 1 seed’s eighth of the draw—in the form of his fourth-round opponent. Foginini and Paire are the definition of vulnerable, so an unseeded floater like Marcel Granollers has a great chance to reach the last 16. Meanwhile, Youzhny has a history of success in New York and with Haas having cooled off a bit combined with Del Potro’s possible physical problems, another quarterfinal for the Russian could be in the cards.

Murray’s quarter

The defending champion could not have asked for much more from the U.S. Open draw ceremony, beginning with an appearance in Djokovic’s half. Murray is 5-13 lifetime against Nadal, including 1-5 in his last six against the Spaniard. The world No. 3 is a much better 8-11 lifetime against Djokovic, having won an even three of their last six, four of their last eight, five of their last 10, and also eight of their last 15. Murray can’t look ahead that far, but his first week in New York could be a walk in the park. His nearest seeds are Juan Monaco, Nicolas Almagro, and Andreas Seppi.

In the other half of this quarter, Berdych should waltz into the fourth round while watching a whole host of second-week contenders slug it out in the section featuring seeds Stanislas Wawrinka and Kevin Anderson. Wawrinka opens against Radek Stepanek before a possible encounter with James Blake. Anderson will contest his first-rounder against fellow big hitter Daniel Brands, who upset Federer earlier this summer on the clay courts of Gstaad.

Best first-round matchup — (15) Nicolas Almagro vs. Denis Istomin

Istomin is a decent 4-4 lifetime at the U.S. Open, with a third-round appearance in 2009 and a memorable performance against Nadal in the 2010 second round. The Uzbek holds a perfect 2-0 head-to-head edge over Almagro and their last encounter (on clay in 2010) featured a pair of tiebreakers.

Best potential second-round matchup – (9) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. James Blake
Best potential third-round matchup – (5) Tomas Berdych vs. (31) Julien Benneteau

Possible surprises — The seeded contingent in the second quarter of the U.S. Open draw is not exactly a juggernaut, but none of the unseeded competitors near Murray and Berdych are capable of capitalizing. If Istomin gets past Almagro, he may have a clear path to face Murray in the last 16. It would not be a huge shock to see both Murray and Berdych go up against unseeded opponents in round four. Blake and Baghdatis both have a good opportunity to reach the second week of the tournament.

Ferrer’s quarter

This is where everyone—everyone—wants to be. Ferrer’s section was always going to be the most wide-open. Throw Richard Gasquet into the equation (instead of Berdych, Del Potro, or Federer) and the result is a complete free-for-all. Dealing with an apparent ankle issue, Ferrer has been borderline hopeless since falling to Del Potro in the Wimbledon quarters. The fourth-ranked Spaniard got blown out by Alex Bogomolov in his Montreal opener and he lost to Tursunov in the Cincinnati third round. Gasquet is a disappointing 2-3 since Wimbledon, with straight-set losses to Djokovic, Isner, and Albert Montanes.

What this quarter is, however, is deep. The remaining seeds are worthy contenders to take advantage of their status as circling vultures. Wimbledon semifinalist Jerzy Janowicz may be in line for a second consecutive trip to the last four of a Grand Slam. The towering Pole might not even face Ferrer in round four because a relatively in-form Ernests Gulbis is on course to meet the fourth seed in round three. Milos Raonic had some shoulder soreness after a run to the Montreal final, but he should be well-rested heading into New York. The Canadian is a potential fourth-round adversary for either Gasquet or Tursunov.

Best first-round matchup — (32) Dmitry Tursunov vs. Aljaz Bedene

Until the qualifiers are place in the draw, there is not much to offer. Ferrer, Raonic, Janowicz, Feliciano Lopez, and Jack Sock are all playing qualifiers and two different pairs of qualifiers will battle in round one. Bedene got off to a strong start in 2013 and he will have to regain that level because Tursunov has been red-hot this summer. This a rematch of a Cincinnati qualifying first-rounder, which Tursunov won in three sets.

Best potential second-round matchup – (14) Jerzy Janowicz vs. (WC) Jack Sock
Best potential third-round matchup – (4) David Ferrer vs. (30) Ernests Gulbis

Possible surprises — Surprises? Nothing would be a surprise in this section. In fact, the only surprise would be if seeds hold to form, which is exactly what they did last year when a quarter of the U.S. Open draw featured Top 8 seeds Ferrer and Janko Tipsarevic (interestingly enough, the result was an epic quarterfinal showdown between none other than Ferrer and Tipsarevic). Raonic, Janowicz, and Gulbis will all be trendy picks to reach the semifinals, and Tursunov will have his fair share of votes as well. Should a slumping Tipsarevic somehow advantage this time, now that would be a shocker.

Nadal’s quarter

Avoiding Murray in his half and instead drawing Ferrer—or whoever the heck emerges from the third quarter—should not be underestimated for Nadal’s U.S. Open chances. But that’s just about where the good news ends for the 12-time major champion. Isner, the man against whom Nadal did not see a single break point in the Cincinnati final and the one player he wanted to avoid in the fourth round, stands as a potential stumbling block. Say what you will about Federer’s current form, but the Swiss tested Nadal in Cincinnati and he will always have chance in this lopsided rivalry on a fast hard court.

Nadal, Federer, and Isner can all be penciled into the fourth round, although the 6’10’’ American could have a third-round rematch on his hands with Philipp Kohlschreiber (they faced each other at the same stage in 2012 and Kohlschreiber prevailed in five sets in the latest finish in U.S. Open history, 2:26 AM). The unknown second-week participant will come from a pod occupied by seeds Kei Nishikori and Tommy Robredo. Bernard Tomic and Robin Haase, among others, will look to crash the party.

Best first-round matchup — (27) Fernando Verdasco vs. Ivan Dodig

Nothing has five-setter written all over it quite like Verdasco vs. Dodig. It may not produce the highest-quality tennis the whole time, but it should be entertaining. Their only previous meeting came last spring on the clay-courts of Monte-Carlo, where Verdasco got the job done in three sets. Neither man is playing particularly well right now, but the Spaniard can still take confidence from a Wimbledon quarterfinal (lost to Murray after leading two sets to none).

Best potential second-round matchup – (13) John Isner vs. Gael Monfils
Best potential third-round matchup – (11) Kei Nishikori vs. (19) Tommy Robredo

Possible surprises — Even if Federer reverts to performing as poorly as he did at Wimbledon, in Hamburg, and in Gstaad, nobody near him in the bracket looks like a candidate to pounce on him and send him packing. The only possibility is Sam Querrey, who currently finds himself in the Winston-Salem quarters and could face Federer in the third round. Should Querrey somehow win, either the American or Robredo—who always seems to raise his game in New York—could advance to the last eight. And Isner, of course, can never be written off. Even with a horrific draw, a run to the title match is not entirely out of the question.

[polldaddy poll=7330390]