Shanghai SF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Bautista Agut, Murray vs. Simon

October 15, 2016 Ricky Match previews 63

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray remain on a collision course for the Shanghai final and they are heavy favorites in their respective semis on Saturday. Djokovic is facing Roberto Bautista Agut, while Murray is going up against Gilles Simon.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (15) Roberto Bautista Agut

Djokovic has not been at his best since winning the French Open for the first time in his career and nothing has changed at the Shanghai Rolex Masters–even though he has battled into the semifinals. The top-ranked Serb made relatively quick work of Fabio Fognini and Vasek Pospisil before running into some serious quarterfinal trouble in the form of qualifier Mischa Zverev. Djokovic trailed the veteran German by a set and a break but stormed back to survive 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-3. The No. 1 seed and defending champion is now 59-6 for the season and 27-3 lifetime in Shanghai.

Up next for Djokovic on Saturday is Bautista Agut, who trails the head-to-head series 5-0–including 3-0 on hard courts. The 19th-ranked Spaniard is 2-12 against Djokovic in total sets, although they recently waged a competitive contest at Roland Garros this spring (Djokovic won 3-6, 6-4, 6-1, 7-5). Bautista Agut has improved his 2016 record to a stellar 47-19 with straight-set victories this week over Bernard Tomic (via retirement), Taylor Fritz, Viktor Troicki, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The 15th seed’s struggles against the very top players in the world, however, are well-documented and they should continue against Djokovic.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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Gilles Simon vs. (2) Andy Murray

Murray and Simon will be squaring off for the 17th time in their careers on Saturday. The head-to-head series is being dominated 14-2 by Murray, who has won 14 of their 15 last encounters since losing their first-ever meeting at the 2007 Rome Masters. They have faced each other only one this season, when the second-ranked Scot cruised 6-4, 6-2.
Murray 2
The undisputed best player on tour since the start of the grass-court swing, Murray still has a chance to overtake Djokovic and finish 2016 as the No. 1 player in the world. He has won four of his last six tournaments and has improved his season record to 63-9 with shanghai blowouts of Steve Johnson, Lucas Pouille, and David Goffin. From just about out of nowhere, Simon is through to a Masters 1000 semifinal following wins over Pablo Carreno Busta, Di Wu, Stan Wawrinka, and Jack Sock. Only Sock, who succumbed in a third-set tiebreaker on Friday, has managed to take a set. But this is a nightmare matchup for the Frenchman, whose style of play is similar to that of Murray but lacking any real offensive firepower. Another straight-setter is likely in the cards for the second seed.

Pick: Murray in 2 losing 5-7 games

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54 Comments on Shanghai SF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Bautista Agut, Murray vs. Simon

  3. Djokovic is really shaky lately and I honestly think if Kyrgios hadn’t been such a dumbass and tanked and had tried at this tourney he would’ve been too much for this out of sorts Novak. Good news for Novak is he’s got a great draw. I think he wins in straights and plays a better match than before. RBA can’t be counted out though. He hasn’t dropped a set this week and I do understand why people are voting for RBA a lot. I would be surprised if he won but not if he stole a set. As for Murray and Simon, Murray is just on another level right now. He should win in straights something like 3 and 2 so losing five to seven games.

    Reply

    • I’m not buying into the dodgy state of Djokovic’s form. I agree Kyrgios (had he chosen to play his usual game) might well have been capable of causing an upset, especially as Djokovic was not match sharp at the start of the tournament. Yesterday’s performance was a classic case of Djoker gamesmanship or what I call his ‘faking bad’ tactic. I very much doubt he will risk such nonsense against an in form RBA today.

      Djokovic in 3

      Reply

  6. Hawks: So what do you make of this?

    Did you know something the rest of us didn’t. But I was right – a different Djoker has turned up for this match 🙂

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    • Nah, I thought he’d continue playing just well enough to win. He’s not tanking. He’s burned out at the moment.

      Not sure you read my post from yesterday but no player has ever been comfortable at No. 1 as Federer and Sampras in my opinion. Lendl maybe. But Djoker has done well the last five years.

      It will be interesting to see if/when he gets his 2.0 game back.

      Golden Era is dead IMO.

      Reply

  7. RBA just got the first set against Novak, but he’s not playing sth insane, he’s just that same solid Bautista Agut we all know. Djokovic plays no better than yesterday, it seems like his troubles are not over yet. He already broke a racquet and will have to pay a fine.

    Bautista Agut also quarrels a lot with the umpire, Carlos Bernardes, about one Djokovic’s return from the first set that RBA wanted to challenge but the umpire said that it was too late and I actually agree it was.

    At 4-4 in the first set RBA had a tough time on his serve facing two break points, even having to make a succesful forehand pass to defend one but yes he did and then he broke Nole for the first time. Now it’s 1-1 in the 2nd and I hope won’t be a repeat from yesterday’s Djokovic vs Mischa Zverev match.

    Reply

    • Manwerty. Thanks for filling me in about the first set!

      Nole is in trouble again. RBA is just being his intense and improved self. I don’t know if ND can pull it together and respond the right way to this. Good match. RBA seems prepared to get the win this time.

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  9. haha brilliant from RBA to make deuce.

    Match point…3rd chance. Saved by Nole! Woot…advantage Nole. yesss. RBA doesn’t win quite yet.

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  15. If Murray wins Shanghai he’s gonna be just under a 1000 points in the race rankings behind Novak. With Paris and World Tour Finals still left I think he has a serious chance of getting year-end no.1.

    Like two months ago I predicted that Murray will get no.1 around March next year as Djokovic will have to defend 2000 points in one month, while Murray barely has something to defend there as he lost early to Delbonis and Dimitrov. Now, I think that might happen even this year. I think we all agree that he’s the best in terms of current form right now.

    Also, funny thing is that if RBA wins Shanghai he would be just 465 points behind 8th in the race rankings Dominic Thiem. He will probably lose to Murray anyway, but if he somehow doesn’t then a late run at WTF is still possible.

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        • Oh. Sorry, I thought I got to add the 360. I’m new to reading that page. Thanks for correcting me. Also was trying to buff up Novak’s points probably 😀

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      • If Andy really is going to Vienna intending to pick up the max 500 points. wow. That will apply pressure. Nole has max points to defend in Paris and WTF. With 500 points in Vienna, Andy will go into Paris only 775 points behind Nole.

        Andy had DC final on his mind in 2015 and only earned 200 points at WTF last year. He was runner-up in Paris.

        Reply

  17. Like most people, I expected Novak to win, although I had in 3 sets. For RBA to do it in SS – amazing! He was so solid until serving for the match and then he tightened up, could not buy a first serve. I am happy when we have some unexpected wins. That said, I predicted Andy would win this tourney, so unexpected wins can stop now. Go Muzz!

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  18. i said a while back that i thought there was something wrong with nole and he would lose the #1 ranking this year. am not surprised he lost to rba. wouldn’t be suprised by other early losses in paris and wtf.
    dunno what’s wrong with him…
    does he kind of want to lose right now? subconsciously if nothing else…doesn’t really seem to want to be on the courts..
    and his serve speeds are still down substantially making it pretty clear he is still carrying some kind of physical problem..

    Reply

    • amy any and all of what you mention could be true. Everything is not right yet. Choosing to think he didn’t like losing to RBA and he’ll turn the loss into a positive list for what he needs to step it up and get it right in Paris.

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      • dunno rc! i haven’t seen him play recently as haven’t actually been watching tennis due to work. i just have a gut feeling that he’s checked out somehow for this year.
        ao next year is the crunch time for him after having a chance to rest and fix things.

        Reply

        • He seemed checked out yesterday when he was smiling and humming oddly while losing to Zverev Major, that’s for sure. Today he smashed a racquet and ripped his shirt. That was more normal.

          Just as long as he doesn’t blow his top and act like he did just before the FO. He was miserable. That giving his love to the crowd move he’s adopted is over the top too. I wouldn’t call him Zen lol…

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          • i reckon nole needs to smash rackets and go bonkers rc. part of his competitive mojo. he’s just not zen on court.
            yeah i still love him and i absolutely don’t want him fading from the game. i want fed back in good nick as well. tennis needs its stars IMO – at least i do…
            kind of given up on rafa for now..he seems to have no real will to fix his own problems saying he won’t use mind coaches and so on…

          • Yes the happy medium for Nole is still naturally going all warrior without the road rage or giving his love from the heart to ars#$%es at US Open 😉

          • I’m in denial about Rafa being done. Still picking him to have a renaissance soon.

            Federer? Really do think he’s too old.

          • well i hope so rc. but i am on the side of those who think he has to get help. he has the game but not the mentality now.
            fed could have won either wimby or the us this year if he hadn’t got injured…ie if you extrapolate the level he was playing at before onto the matches there this year. i guess coming back from injury he won’t be the same though. pity as i love fedole matches.
            atp is seriously lacking in great rivalries atm…actually the wta is more interesting with more likeable players.

  19. Novak is toast. I say this as his biggest fan since around circa 2007, but my biggest fear was that he would lose the mentality that would be required to keep winning once he was done winning the French. Tennis at the very top echelon is as much about personality as it is talent, and Novak has never had the right kind of personality for the game. You can see it in how much he can fluctuate mentally in a match.

    The fact that he fixed a lot in his game (serve, forehand) and managed to keep it mentally together for so long has taken its toll. The best thing for him at this point would be to take a break and come back if he rediscovers his hunger for the game, because frankly his serve needs retooling, and I doubt he is bothered to put in the rehab work that is needed.

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    • Well, I hear you, Mikkers and I hope it’s not that deep of a problem but I’m prepared for it to be…you could be right. I’ve been cheering for Nole since 2009.

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      • To be honest, I kind of lost interest in watching tennis after he watched the French, having been invested in wanting to see him get it after so long. I can totally understand how the man himself might feel.

        I don’t mind seeing some fresh blood take over.

        Reply

          • To be honest, I enjoy playing more than watching, unless it’s a great matchup. Haha the WTA event happens in a week I think in Singapore, but I really have never bothered with it. Mens tennis is on a different level for me.

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