Shanghai SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Rinderknech

Daniil Medvedev is two wins away from his first title since 2023 in Rome and one win away from just his second final of the season.

Standing in Medvedev’s way of those accomplishments is Arthur Rinderknech, as they will collide in the semifinals of the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Saturday afternoon. Their only previous meeting came at the 2022 U.S. Open, where Medvedev cruised 6-2, 7-5, 6-3.

The rematch figures to be much more competitive, in part because Rinderknech is playing the best tennis of his life at 30 years old. Currently No. 54 in the world, he will climb to a career-high ranking of 37th even if he loses on Saturday. Rinderknech is 11-3 in his last 14 matches dating back to the U.S. Open and so far in Shanghai he has dismissed Hamad Medjedovic, Alex Michelsen, Alexander Zverev, Jiri Lehecka, and Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Frenchman has won his last two matches in straight sets, including a 6-3, 6-4 rout of a previously red-hot Auger-Aliassime on Friday.

Medvedev took a much more scenic rout to the semis. The 18th-ranked Russian needed two hours and 52 minutes to outlast Learner Tien on Wednesday in a match that saw him deal with cramps late in the second set. Medvedev managed to get past Alex de Minaur in straight sets on Friday, but even that match was somewhat of a physical struggle. The former world No. 1 previously beat Dalibor Svrcina and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to kick off his Shanghai campaign.

Although Medvedev is starting to show signs of his former self, Rinderknech is on fire and is playing on what is pretty much a full tank. Moreover, Medvedev–especially at this stage of the tournament–would prefer much faster conditions in an effort to end points in swifter fashion.

This is a great upset opportunity for Rinderknech.

Pick: Rinderknech in 3