Shanghai SF preview and pick: Nadal vs. Tsonga

Tsonga 2Beijing runner-up Rafael Nadal continues to pick up momentum during the Asian swing as he now finds himself in the Shanghai semifinals on Saturday. Standing in the Spaniard’s way of the title match is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Rafael Nadal and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be squaring off for the 12th time in their careers and for the first time in more than two years when they battle for a spot in the Shanghai Rolex Masters final on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 8-3, including an impressive 6-2 on hard courts. Tsonga, however, has at least won two of their last five encounters dating back to the start of the 2011 season. They most recently faced each other on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo in 2013, when Nadal prevailed 6-3, 7-6(3). The two veterans have met twice during the fall swing; Nadal got the job done 7-5, 7-5 at the 2009 Paris Masters and Tsonga scored a 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-3 victory at the 2011 World Tour Finals.

The World Tour Finals is where Nadal is headed despite a disappointing 2015 campaign by his standards. Shanghai’s No. 8 seed owns just three titles and did not reach a single Grand Slam semifinal. But he is picking up momentum in a hurry in Asia. Nadal finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Beijing and so far this week he has taken out Ivo Karlovic, Milos Raonic, and Stan Wawrinka.

“Being in the semifinals is a great result for me,” the 14-time major champion commented. “I hadn’t played the semifinals on hard court all year and now I am playing two weeks in a row in the final rounds. That’s a big improvement for me. In terms of confidence, in terms of level of tennis, I am playing better. Very happy for that because I am working so hard.”
Rafa 1
Tsonga is also gaining some much-needed confidence this fall. In part because of an injury-plagued start to the year, the 15th-ranked Frenchman had just 17 match wins to his credit heading into the U.S. Open. That event ended with a tough five-set quarterfinal loss to Marin Cilic, but Tsonga got right back in action to capture a title in Metz. He punched his ticket to the final four in Shanghai by defeating Tommy Robredo, Victor Estrella Burgos, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Kevin Anderson.

Although Tsonga benefited from Roger Federer’s loss to Ramos-Vinolas and arguably from Kei Nishikori’s setback against Anderson, the 16th seed has still needed a combined five hours and 24 minutes to survive his last two matches (2:44 against Ramos-Vinolas and 2:40 against Anderson). That is not a good recipe for success going into a showdown with Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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32 Comments on Shanghai SF preview and pick: Nadal vs. Tsonga

  1. I think Rafa losing now is preferable to enduring a TB with Tsonga pulling aces out of the hat at will.

    Congratulations to Tsonga – he deserved to get the win after keeping his head in the third set.

    • No, it is also good for him to be in those testing moments and see how he does. This was a bit different from what he faced against Ivo and Raonic because Jo has a massive game from the baseline and he can hit some incredible volleys.

      Rafa did so well to stave off 3 break points in the beginning of the set and he created more chances in the end but lacked the edge today. He will keep progressing.

    • Too true. But it was also down to Rafa not being able to convert umpteen breakpoints because J-WT was able to pull off the aces so often.

      Overall Rafa’s progress is continuing and we have to remember we were not expecting to see Rafa in the SF let alone the final before the tournament began.

      It’s down to Muzza to do his job now 😉

      • Absolutely true ed ! it is only because of rafa’s excellent progress that we are now expecting him to reach the finals and fight with the big boys. He is progressing really well and I am sure he will be pumped to improve more after this encouraging week. Don’t think there is anyone better than taking positives (no matter how small) from defeats than rafael nadal

    • I tend to agree with you here. I do feel Rafa always starts slow, takes more time to settle down and so his opponent has the chance to gain an advantage early on in the match and that’s what happened today. Rafa also lost his serve at his first service game vs Ivo but he was able to break back because of his incredible ROS on that day and also Ivo wasn’t like Tsonga who could hit with more firepower.

      I feel Rafa was still feeling nervous when serving his last service game and thats the problem with him the whole year. I feel the more eager he wants to win, the more nervous he becomes. Against Novak in the Beijing final, he had no expectations to win and so he could play freely. I feel he played better in that match than in this one.

  2. Tsonga’s going to get smoked in the final now….. damn… rafa should have won this…

    Anyway, I am disappointed but overall I am very happy. So many positives to take !

    Rafa did falter a little bit towards the end but Jo raised his level a lot too…. rafa missing that inside out forehand on 15-30 was frustrating though.

    Rafa’s played some really good tennis this week. He will only be encouraged to work harder and with more confidence.

    keep up the good work Rafa! 🙂

    • Imo Rafa relied too much on his I/O FH. Tsonga was waiting there at his FH corner for it and then hit a DTL FH winner. To me, Rafa was getting predictable as the match went on, just like his match vs Ivo when by the third set, Ivo was anticipating Rafa’s passing shots so well that he was at the net blocking the passing shots.

      Rafa is clearly still off his best, hitting so many shots into the net; loses the ability to change things up quick enough when things are not working for him. Rafa has lost some speed and power and that makes it even tougher for him to deal with power hitter who also has big serves and could hit with precision. A few of Tsonga’s FHs were just unbelievable, barely touched the baseline!

      Rafa is always at a losing end where his serve is concerned when he faces a big server. He really has to work so hard to hold serve, not helped when he’s bothered by his own nerve. I dont know how Rafa can improve in his serve and stays calm, may be too late to do anything to his serve now. I’m disappointed with a loss like this when its a winnable match. When it mattered, Tsonga served and played well to stay in the match but Rafa couldnt.

  3. People here are happy to see that Rafa can’t beat the likes of Tsonga? I guess that’s what you call lowered expectations, the new norm, setting the bar quite low lol. Jo’s return game is dreadful yet he broke twice.

    • Jo has done pretty well against all of the big 4 when he’s had his day…

      No shame in losing to him today as he was playing quite well.

      With rafa, it is not so much about opponents, but about how he himself is playing and handling the situations. He looks much calmer under pressure now.

      I want to see him being more aggressive with his forehand and I feel he lacks dynamism in his movement, esp towards the backhand side. But I am glad Uncle Toni talked about it after Beijing so they know what to work on. He will get there. And remember, even vintage rafa losing in Shanghai won’t be a very big news or something!

      I also liked rafa’s performance against Novak in the beijing final. Yes he lost 6-2 6-2 but I liked his performance in many ways 🙂

  4. i feared this would happen after the easy second set….Tsonga was saving himself for the third and I just knew it would get tough for Rafa…Rafa missed his big chance to reach the finals…again his nerves did not allow him to play freely on crucial points…When Rafa bageled Tsonga in the second set I recalled the match with Davidenko in Doha which Rafa managed to lose after taking the first set 6:0…

    I am disappointed that yet again Rafa managed to lose…but he is getting there and we should take positives from this tourney…

  5. So sorry, Rafans, was really hoping this would be IT this time for Rafa, but he can take heart. The big game is still there. Mentality and consistency would benefit from a new coach, I think.
    What about Jo-W though?! He seems to thrive on the vibes of the crowd and the crowd does love him wherever he goes. He’s more connected to his audience that just about any other player I can think of – trouble is, it works both ways and he seems to wobble when they’re nervous too.

  6. Wow Tsonga got the win. After the second set I thought Rafa would get it done. Big win for Jo Willy nonetheless I’ll be rooting for him in the final no matter who he plays. I actually got up early and saw Rafa up 5-0 in the second and was gonna watch but I thought Rafa would win like 6-0 and 6-3 or something I don’t know why I thought that I guess I was just tired but I got up like two hours later and saw the result and wished I had recorded it. Was it good match overall? I hope they replay the final set later at least.

    • Well I wasn’t rooting for anyone really lol. I just want to know if it was good tennis. I mean would’ve happy been Rafa and rooted for him in final and same to Jo. Basically I wanted winner of that semifinal to go on and win the title no matter who won. To be honest I was expecting Rafa though so that result sort of shocked me but Tsonga is very dangerous.

  7. Good news is Rafa and berdych are basically set for atp finals well good news about Rafa but current berdych probably won’t make impact. Also Tsonga has chance of making the O2 especially if Murray withdraws because of the Davis cup.

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