Shanghai SF preview and pick: Nadal vs. Tsonga

Tsonga 2Beijing runner-up Rafael Nadal continues to pick up momentum during the Asian swing as he now finds himself in the Shanghai semifinals on Saturday. Standing in the Spaniard’s way of the title match is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Rafael Nadal and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be squaring off for the 12th time in their careers and for the first time in more than two years when they battle for a spot in the Shanghai Rolex Masters final on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 8-3, including an impressive 6-2 on hard courts. Tsonga, however, has at least won two of their last five encounters dating back to the start of the 2011 season. They most recently faced each other on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo in 2013, when Nadal prevailed 6-3, 7-6(3). The two veterans have met twice during the fall swing; Nadal got the job done 7-5, 7-5 at the 2009 Paris Masters and Tsonga scored a 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-3 victory at the 2011 World Tour Finals.

The World Tour Finals is where Nadal is headed despite a disappointing 2015 campaign by his standards. Shanghai’s No. 8 seed owns just three titles and did not reach a single Grand Slam semifinal. But he is picking up momentum in a hurry in Asia. Nadal finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Beijing and so far this week he has taken out Ivo Karlovic, Milos Raonic, and Stan Wawrinka.

“Being in the semifinals is a great result for me,” the 14-time major champion commented. “I hadn’t played the semifinals on hard court all year and now I am playing two weeks in a row in the final rounds. That’s a big improvement for me. In terms of confidence, in terms of level of tennis, I am playing better. Very happy for that because I am working so hard.”
Rafa 1
Tsonga is also gaining some much-needed confidence this fall. In part because of an injury-plagued start to the year, the 15th-ranked Frenchman had just 17 match wins to his credit heading into the U.S. Open. That event ended with a tough five-set quarterfinal loss to Marin Cilic, but Tsonga got right back in action to capture a title in Metz. He punched his ticket to the final four in Shanghai by defeating Tommy Robredo, Victor Estrella Burgos, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Kevin Anderson.

Although Tsonga benefited from Roger Federer’s loss to Ramos-Vinolas and arguably from Kei Nishikori’s setback against Anderson, the 16th seed has still needed a combined five hours and 24 minutes to survive his last two matches (2:44 against Ramos-Vinolas and 2:40 against Anderson). That is not a good recipe for success going into a showdown with Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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30 Comments on Shanghai SF preview and pick: Nadal vs. Tsonga

  1. I agree with Ricky’s pick. Rafa seems to be getting better with each match. There is no way that anyone could call his draw in Shanghai easy at all. Being in the semifinal after getting to the final in Beijing, is great news for Rafa.

    Tsonga has always been inconsistent. I also don’t think he has the mental strength to stay with Rafa. If Rafa comes out playing the way he did in his previous matches, then I believe he will get the win.

  2. I did find myself thinking about the lost opportunity for Rafa and Fed to finally play each other this year. Fed didn’t keep his part of the bargain this time. That would have great to see. They may still have time to meet each other.

  3. How they get grouped in Tour Final? 1,3,5,7 and 2,4,6,8? Looks like Nole will meet Rafa two/three times before year end and he would equal or lead the H2H at the end of 2015.

  4. They (Fedal) can meet at Basel or Paris or WTF. I think meeting and pushing Novak close in the first set of Beijing final did help Rafa’s confidence. He now knows he’s getting closer to the top players’ level than when at the beginning or mid of the season.

    Watching the Tomic and Novak match, how I wished Rafa in that Beijing final could play the way Tomic played in the first set, ie serving well, hitting well and mixing in slicing and changing of pace to keep Novak guessing. Rafa was basically trying to outhit Novak the whole match, couldnt succeed because no one could stay with Novak and out rally him, at least in a BO3 match.

    I hope Rafa watched this match and got some inspiration from it, at least that’s another way of pushing Novak, theres no harm in adding in new strategies to your game to give you more choices at your disposal.

    • I absolutely agree that Rafa was trying to outhit Novak in the Beijing final. That was never going to work. I also agree that Rafa meeting and pushing Novak in the first set was very important. Rafa knew that he had opportunities, but was unable to capitalize. I think he took some real positives out of that match. It’s one reason why I thought it was good for him at that point to play Novak in the final. He needs to go up against the best to see where he’s at. I think he did just that and realized that he’s not that far away and also what must be done to get there.

  5. Reading between the lines of various comments by Rafa and other members of the team I believe they had worked out a strategy to right the ship but didn’t want to unveil it to soon. Most likely it is still being fined tuned and/or they didn’t want to give the competition too much time to come up with counter attacks before nexr season. Something made them change their minds and the new-style Rafa is being pre-viewed in Shanghai earlier than expected.

    That’s my theory for what it’s worth.

    #WorkInProgress

    • I think you are partly right but I think the changes are more progressive. I have a feeling they thought he could go all the way at the USO but he was still struggling with some anxiety losing to Fog when he was in control of the match. In the Beijing final, I don’t think Rafa was holding anything back, it was just one of those days when fate was against him because there wasn’t that much between them especially in the 1st set, as Djoker admitted.

      The match against Karlovic was a good tonic because it’s one of those matches you half lose in the locker room no matter how many times you’ve beaten them before. To have come through that in the way he did was a big plus and to follow that with beating Raonic is exceptional. I was so worried about the Karlovic match that I didn’t even bother to look at the rest of the draw, other than knowing Rafa was in Federer’s half.

  6. The early exits from so many tournaments this year ironically means Rafa has done far fewer tennis miles – he will be much fresher than most people he is likely to face in the coming weeks. Several people have already mentioned how jaded Djokovic is looking. He really doesn’t appear to be enjoying his tennis plus he has the additional strain of being No.1 which carries an onerous workload and the pressure of defending his numerous titles.

  7. Novak is going to have to defend all these points next year. The good news for Rafa is that he’s not going to have that much to defend. He should go into 2016 with less pressure. Now that we are seeing real signs that his game has improved quite a bit, he will work to be ready for next year.

    I do think that Novak has been showing signs of strain, even at the USO. Winning has its rewards but the pressure of expectations and staying on top is enormous.

    For what it’s worth, I do not think that Rafa is “back”, whatever that really means. I think the mental or emotional issues do appear to have been resolved. His demeanor and body language on court now is in stark contrast to earlier this year. You can see it in his eyes – that fierce concentration and awareness and competitive spirit. But I think Rafa does have some more work to get back to his best. This is a work in progress and Rafa has taken some huge steps in Beijing and Shanghai.

    I know that Rafa will continue to work to be at his very best. Tennis needs Rafa back, because when he’s one there is no one else like him.

    I am enjoying seeing Rafa playing much more like himself. I think he’s enjoying it, too! 🙂

    • Tiggy never stopped believing in Rafa!

      I agree with your earlier comment above about Rafa’s improvement being progressive even if it was often one step forward and one step back.

      Tiggy also highlighted an important difference between Rafa, Djoker and Roger. Rafa has never held the believe to win is his destiny. The sense of destiny was inculcated by Djoker’s family; for Roger it stems more from an unshakeable belief in his own talent: both of them display that air of entitlement to win whereas Rafa always expresses delighted surprise.

  8. Koenig and Knowall are yacking before play starts. They’ve both changed their minds big time. Have to laugh after they’d written him off.

  9. Tsonga gets the first break. Rafa showing signs of angst. Dropping too many balls short, averaging 29 secs before his serve, perspiring a lot etc.

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