Shanghai SF preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Murray

Djoker 1Familiar foes Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are set to face each other again on Saturday in Shanghai. The winner will go up against either Rafael Nadal or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the title match.

It will be a battle between the top two players in the world when Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray meet for the 29th time in the semifinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Saturday.

The head-to-head series stands at 19-9 in favor of Djokovic, who has won eight of their last nine encounters and four of five in 2015. This week’s top seed prevailed in the Australian Open final, the Indian Wells semifinals, the Miami title match, and the French Open semis. Murray, however, finally turned the tide and took their most recent showdown 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 to triumph at the Canada Masters.

Both players are–as usual–in outstanding form at the moment. Djokovic is 15-0 in his last 15 matches with titles at the U.S. Open and in Beijing. So far this week he has defeated Martin Klizan, Feliciano Lopez, and Bernard Tomic in straight sets. The world No. 1 is 71-5 on the season and 22-3 lifetime in Shanghai.

Murray is an awesome 17-2 for his Shanghai career, boasting a pair of titles in addition to one runner-up performance. He booked his spot in the last four by getting past Steve Johnson, John Isner, and Tomas Berdych. The second-ranked Scot is 16-2 in his last 18 matches dating back to the start of Montreal.
Murray
A 6-1, 6-3 beatdown of Berdych that required only one hour and 19 minutes was especially impressive on Murray’s part. But the Czech allowed Murray to be on the offensive from start to finish and was unable to turn defense into his own offense. Nobody does that better than Djokovic.

The buildup to the U.S. Open is never Djokovic’s favorite time of year, but the Asian swing is where he is often most dominant. Count on order being restored to this head-to-head series.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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41 Comments on Shanghai SF preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Murray

  1. “The buildup to the U.S. Open is never Djokovic’s favorite time of year…”

    Odd comment given that he made finals or better at both Canada/Cincy in 2011, 2012 and 2015.

    #ToughCrowd

  2. Gotta feeling it’s gona be Muzz-Rafa final…. but Novak is just too good these days. As rafa said, he has been on another level for most of 2015

  3. Djoker has not been stretched yet because his opponents have played so poorly. Tomic tried but he wasn’t water-tight enough, leaking errors at the wrong times. I hope they don’t play their usual cat and mouse game that they usually play against each other.

  4. I just don’t see Novak beating Murray in straight sets. Again I am going back and forth with this one. On paper, Novak should get the win but I don’t think it’s going to be easy. But there is a part of me that thinks Murray might be able to do what he did in Canada.

    I will go for it and say Murray in 3 sets.

  5. Murray is thinking positively:

    ”It wasn’t like I was going out there and getting blown off the court,” Murray said of his recent losses to Djokovic. ”I was playing some good tennis and hanging with him. I managed to do that throughout the whole match when we played in Montreal. Hopefully, I can play another good one tomorrow.”

  6. If Tomic could push Novak like that in the first set, I can see a Murray (who’s blowing Berdych off the court despite Berdych playing well) beating Novak, in two or three sets.

    Seriously, I wasnt impressed by Novak at Shanghai, for his first two round opponents played like ‘shit’ – Klizan did nothing the whole year and Feli who cant even hit a decent BH without slicing it. When Novak met Tomic, that’s at least a decent test in the first set and mind you, Tomic played the last match last night that ended past midnight and in three sets and yet hes still able to push Novak with a decent chance of winning the first set TB. Novak OTOH was well rested.

    Im voting for Murray to win, maybe even in straight sets, provided he doesnt wake up the wrong side of the bed.

  7. If Murray plays like Shanghai 2010 final where he beat Fed 6-2, 6-2 (if I’m not wrong), he’ll beat this Novak. He’s awesome vs Berdych, reminds me of poor Berdych one year ago at Beijing Final where he was trashed 6-0, 6-2 by Novak.

    • I was impressed by how easily Murray beat Berdy, considering their history. He’s been playing well this year and has that win in the Montreal final. I would expect him to go into the semifinal with real confidence. He has the game to hang with Novak.

      The only thing that sticks in the back of my mind, is that Novak has shown that he is able to raise his level of play in the latter stages of tournaments. Many thought he was not tha impressive leading up to this year’s USO final. Fed was blowing everyone off the court. But Novak had the answers.

      We will have to see what happens. but I am sticking with my pick of Murray in 3 sets.

  8. Have to agree w/some of the comments above…Murray definitely playing well enough to take it to 3….but he’ll be the loser in 3.

  9. I’m expecting a Chinese firecracker. If nole wins first set it’ll be over in two. First set so important between these two. I’m going for muzz to wear nole out for Rafa to put to the sword on Sunday. Tbh I’m more concerned about muzz staying as fresh as possible for DC – everything else, including staying #2 in rankings, is secondary. That said, I think having DC as top priority and main focus is loosening muzz up to play his best … Hopefully it will in Paris too. Who knows, this could be muzz’s first time ever to win three masters in a year. Nice thought but, as muzz says, not top priority. Anyone’s match but would be so happy for muzz Rafa final – just like the old days, only hopefully not too like them for muzz’s sake 🙂

  10. Alex,

    Yes, a Chinese firecracker! I like that! I think in a best of three set match, Novak does have the advantage when he wins the first set. So the first set is important as you said. But I think Murray is quite confident at this time. He knows it can be done.

    With Novak and Murray it can go either way and this time I am predicting that Murray will get it done.

    I don’t want to take anything for granted, though. Rafa has to beat Tsonga to get to the final.

    • Yes, I took Rafa too much for granted 🙁 With Rafa now out, today’s winner now a strong favourite. Yep, muzz playing with confidence and smiles this week, which I like, so we never know. Nice Saturday morning TV for you?

  11. Murray won their last encounter mainly because of a rain delay. Djokovic had to finish his previous day’s match the day after the rain out then pull a double header with Andy Murray. Any one who plays two games ion a single day will not be 100%

  12. Muzz gets the break at start of set 2, but that’s never the hard one for muzz. The real question is, can he hold his own? Can he now get a string of first serves in on his own service?

  13. Yep, nole breaks straight back after muzz allows himself to get distracted before second serve at 30-30 and fires a double. Brilliant point at 30-40 for nole to break back, but it should never have come to that. Oh, that serve, muzz! That will ever be the question for murray against nole – can he hold?

  14. And muzz double faults again, to give nole the double break. Nole just too good for anyone these days, really at the peak of his powers now. Looks like Bodo called this one right … “… Djokovic will be looking for payback for that beating he took at the hands of Murray in Montreal. The way Djokovic has been playing, he’ll probably get it — perhaps with a little interest …”

  15. Nole pretty much doing to muzz what muzz did to berdych … and painting a scary picture of the gap between #1 and #2 in the world.
    What do the coming years hold for us now? Are we heading into a period of Fed-style dominance of yesteryear?

    • We’re right in it. Djoker has led the rankings since Wimbledon 2014 and, although there remained a slim chance that Federer might take the top spot the tail-end of last year, the Serb has been way out on his own since regaining AO. I believe the gap back to #2 is now the biggest it has been since the current ranking system came into play.

      He may be ambushed from time to time, but he is very consistent (is this his THIRTEENTH tour final running?) and it is notable that the tie-break with Tomic is the only time he has been pushed beyond 6-3 since the US Open.

      But you never know: this time four years ago, he was way out front, too; by the following year’s Wimbledon, he had ceded the top spot to Federer. That took quite some doing – something like seven tournament wins from November to July – and it will be interesting to see who might take up the challenge in the times ahead.

    • Unless Rafa gets back to his best; or the Delpo of USO winning form comes back (highly unlikely) and if not, the slam winning Stan appears more often. I cant think of anyone else stopping this Novak. Fed is too old now, Tsonga is inconsistent despite all his firepower and huge serve, the rest of the top ten or top twenty? The less we talk about them the better. Im really disappointed with the way Murray played this match and lost so easily. He ought to be the one challenging Novak now, when Fedal are not in the position to do so now.

      Murray hasnt scored past the 10,000 ranking points mark all his career so far, a bit disappointing despite him sometimes reaching as high as no.2 in the rankings. Hes not realizing his full potential I’m afraid, just like I think Rafa hasn’t too (and its unlikely Rafa will reach his full potential as hes too old to do that under Toni).

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