Shanghai final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Tsonga

Novak Djokovic is one win away from going through the Asian swing undefeated. Standing in his way of both that feat and the Shanghai title on Sunday is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Djokovic crushed Andy Murray in the semis, while Tsonga outlasted Rafael Nadal.

Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be squaring off for the 20th time in their careers when they collide in the final of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Sunday.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 13-6, but Tsonga is 6-7 lifetime against the Serb on hard courts and 6-6 in hard-court matches that did not end in retirement. While all of those numbers are encouraging for the underdog, this one is not: Djokovic has won 11 of the last 12 at Tsonga’s expense after once trailing the series 5-2. Tsonga finally ended an 11-match losing skid by rolling over Djokovic–and everyone else–6-2, 6-2 en route to the Rogers Cup title last summer.

Shanghai, though, is not exactly the spot where the Frenchman would choose to face Djokovic. The world No. 1 is 23-3 lifetime at this event following victories this week over Martin Klizan, Feliciano Lopez, Bernard Tomic, and Andy Murray and only Tomic has been remotely competitive. Djokovic is also 16-0 in his last 16 matches with titles at the U.S. Open and in Beijing.

Tsonga is invoking memories of his run to the 2014 Toronto title. The competition has not been as strong, but the mental fortitude it has required is commendable. The 15th-ranked Frenchman, a quarterfinalist at the U.S. Open and champion in Metz, survived consecutive three-set thrillers against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Kevin Anderson, and Rafael Nadal. He preceded those victories by taking out Tommy Robredo and Victor Estrella Burgos.

“All along the season I worked hard to be able to play these matches,” Tsonga commented. “When it happens, I’m really happy to have worked hard because I know I can count on my body. It’s something great for me because it was not always like this. Today I’m a lot stronger than I was maybe few years ago. I think it’s good for me.

“I feel good. To be honest, the season was difficult with a lot of ups and downs. This surface is one of my favourites. I know I’m able to play good tennis. Before I came here, I didn’t know if I will be able to play that good. I hope it’s going to continue.”

It may continue later this fall, but not on Sunday. Tsonga’s Toronto upset of Djokovic was an obvious aberration as opposed to the rule. Speaking of ruling, that is just what the top seed has been doing in Asia and there is no reason to think he is descending from the throne anytime soon.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 5-7 games

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26 Comments on Shanghai final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Tsonga

  1. What continually amazes me are people (who know SFA about tennis and have usually only seen the odd match on TV) yet refer to themselves as Federer fans. What bugs all his fans is a bunch of young upstarts came along and proved he was not invincible – Rafa being the main culprit. It will forever be thus even if Djokovic were to overtake Rafa in the h2h stats. I long ago gave up on pushing hot treacle upstairs.

  2. Thanks for balkan history. I think it’s kind of natural that people like their own guy. Scots like Murray, etc. Serbs like Nole.
    I am american by way of ancestry from Holland Germany france but I like Nole and not really a fan of isner but sock is ok. Not a kohls, Tsonga,Haase fan either because of my nationality.. People just like who they like.

    • I’m American and I root for Isner and sock for most part unless they r playing fed or Stan but that’s also partially cuz some of my family is from Switzerland so u got a point there. Also fed and Stan r just smooth to watch imo especially fed for obvious reasons and stan’s backhand is just gold.

      • Rooting for players from your country makes sense. Not sure anyone roots for players because “some of my family is from there.” The more plausible reason is because they are fun to watch, as you pointed out.

  3. My favorite has nothing to do with where I come from. Borg was the first tennis love of my life and he was Swedish. After that I did not have a favorite, however when Lendl came along I was a fan. I thought he was much misunderstood and also liked his game. He was Czech.

    Now it’s Rafa and he’s from Spain. It’s not something I even think about. I like who I like. There are other players whose games I enjoy and will support, like Murray. I do like Sock and hope he can keep on doing well. I love watching Monfils when he’s on. So athletic and entertaining. But their nationality is just not much of a factor for me.

  4. The only time patriosm plays a part is during the Davis Cup and the Olympics.
    I was never a fan of Henman (too preppy for my taste) but I began following Muzza when he became the USO junior champion. I vaguely knew there was a player named Rafa in those days but had never seen him play. I came under his spell a year later when I saw him play at Roland Garros in 2005 and and have never looked back.

    I really like Andy’s unconventional attitude and the fact he does not suffer fools gladly. He is undoubtedlymy number 2 favourite and I continue to follow his progress with keen interest and root for him against all comers apart from Rafa.

  5. These numbers are staggering

    So in case you haven’t heard, here’s what Djokovic has accomplished since losing in the semifinals of Shanghai last year, a period spanning 16 tournaments and one Davis Cup rubber:

    Won 82 of 87 matches, dropping just 35 sets.
    Won 31 of 35 matches against the top 10, losing just 22 sets.
    Won 13 of 16 matches against the top five, losing just 15 sets.
    Reached the final of 15 out of 16 tournaments, including all four Grand Slams and all eight Masters events he entered.
    Won 11 out of 16 tournaments, including three of four Grand Slams and six of eight Masters he entered.

  6. This is another weak era. Fed is old but at age 34 he reached two consecutive slam finals! Like old Agassi, old Fed is thriving but cannot beat the ONE. Rafa is slumping so much that we celebrate if he gets past Fognini. No one except a Djoker fan can say Rafa is in top form. Murray has regressed. His body is hurting or he is not motivated. The rest are the field. Djoko has no rivals and this is worse than 2006 because then Fed’s rivals were young and upcoming but this year the rivals are old and slumping. Next year will be the same unless Djoko starts slumping or some young guy steps up or Rafa comes back. Or Djoko gets tired of thrashing old and injured rivals and announces his retirement!

  7. Actually, Rafa’s 2013 right up to Miami 2014 would also be quite stellar. We can only speculate about the AO outcome should there be no back issue; that aside, Rafa had reached 14 finals in 2013, plus another 4 finals out of 5 events played starting from Doha 2014 to Miami 2014, ie 18 finals out of 22 events played, winning 12 of them. Its at Wimbledon that he failed badly in 2013, and during that stretch from Chile to Beijing 2013, Rafa also reached 13 finals out of 14 events played and won 10.

    Fed’s 2005 to 2006 seasons were also as stellar if not better than Novak’s 2014 to 2015 seasons.

  8. Luckystar, great post. Rafa’s 2013 was unreal and he did it when Djoko was in great form. No weak era. He beat Djoko on hard courts, not just on clay.

  9. Yes, Novak was playing at a high level in 2013 and it was Rafa who stopped him at the SF stages at FO and Montreal and Novak was still reaching the finals at Wimbledon and USO (stopped by Murray and Rafa respectively). Novak also had a clean sweep at the Asian and the Indoor swings, so Rafa was playing at a stellar level to be able to edge Novak for the year end no.1 ranking.

    Murray was at least competitive until the USO and we had Delpo throughout the season playing very well too. I do feel that in 2013 the field was stronger than now, with Stan too challenging Novak at the AO and USO that year. Its only Fed who’s suffering from his back injury and so was not having a good season.

      • I think its pointless to speculate about what could have been, but if we are at it then I think Djokovic should have won US open in 2014 too but he lost to Nishikori.

      • True Del Po would’ve won at least five slams IMO. The guy was 20 when he won NY and he was able to climb rankings so quickly every time he came back from injury. Without injuries this guy would be one of the biggest forces in the game today. So sad that his career has truly been plagued by injury.

    • Yeah but nadal got penalized for not playing a full season and a poor display at Wimbledon when ITF decided to give Djokovic the ITF World Champion title, despite the fact that Djokovic was world # 2.

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