Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal headline Shanghai’s quarterfinal slate of action of Friday. Ricky Dimon and Chris Skelton make their picks.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. Gael Monfils
Chris: Nothing focuses and motivates Djokovic better than a little adversity, which arrived last week when he lost his No. 1 ranking. By far the most impressive of Shanghai contenders in the early rounds, he has looked disciplined and relentless in losing just eight games. Neither “disciplined” nor “relentless” has described Monfils throughout his career. He did score a solid upset over Roger Federer, but so have players like Sergiy Stakhovsky and Daniel Brands this year. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 8-0, most of it coming on hard courts like these. Djokovic in two routine sets.
Ricky: Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal for the Beijing title last week and the Serb is showing no signs of slowing down. Blowouts of Marcel Granollers and Fabio Fognini were both ruthless performances. Monfils is a more difficult opponent especially because of his defense and also thanks to his shot-making capabilities, but he is not consistent and never has been consistent enough to beat Djokovic. On a court that is playing relatively fast, the world No. 2 should have too much offense for Monfils’ defense. Djokovic in two routine sets.
Florian Mayer vs. (7) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Chris: Beware of being Spanish and facing Mayer in Shanghai. The unremarkable German knocked off Nadal at this event a few years ago and he upset world No. 4 David Ferrer on Thursday to reach the quarterfinals. Tsonga has regrouped impressively from a recent injury absence and a second-round loss in Tokyo, halting former nemesis Kei Nishikori in the previous round. The Shanghai courts are playing faster than, which should help him score a fourth straight win over Mayer. But his biggest advantage? He’s not Spanish. Tsonga in two tight sets.
Ricky: Tsonga and Mayer just squared off earlier this fall in Metz, where the Frenchman dropped the first set but had no trouble taking the next two. He is 3-0 against Mayer and has won six of their seven sets. Court surface should also be a considerable factor in this one, just as it was in Metz, because only something very slow would give the German a better than average chance in this matchup. Tsonga looked good after a nervous start against Nishikori, so he should be playing with confidence. Tsonga in two tight sets.
(6) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (15) Nicolas Almagro
Chris: They never had met until Tokyo, and now they will meet twice in two weeks. Both men have survived third-set tiebreakers en route to the quarterfinals, Del Potro needing to escape a zoning Philipp Kohlschreiber and Almagro finding the courage to stun world No. 6 Tomas Berdych. While Del Potro received a walkover after his marathon, Almagro plays a second straight top-eight opponent a day after his. This quarterfinal intrigues the most of the four, especially since last week’s preview extended to two tiebreakers before the Argentine slipped through. Almagro has more momentum, but his elongated swings and questionable stamina (physical and mental) raise red flags ahead of what should be his second consecutive tense encounter on a fast court. Del Potro in three sets (loses the second).
Ricky: Del Potro got a huge and probably needed break in the form of Tommy Haas’ withdrawal. The Argentine is coming off a long week in Tokyo and his grueling test against Kohlschreiber could not have helped. He is also dealing with a reported fever. Will the day of rest be enough? Maybe not, given Almagro’s sudden surge in current form. The Spaniard reached the Tokyo semis and his two-tiebreaker match against Del Potro was arguably the best of the tournament. Thursday’s win over Berdych combined with Del Potro’s potential vulnerability should inspire Almagro to get over the hump this time. Almagro in three sets (loses the first).
(8) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Chris: In theory, this matchup should be fascinating as well. Not far removed from his first major semifinal at the U.S. Open, Wawrinka has the weapons to fluster Nadal: a heavy serve, an authoritative backhand, and a defiant attitude against elite opponents. But the statistics cannot be ignored. Nadal has won all 22 of the sets that they have played–nine of them on hard courts–and he dispatched Wawrinka routinely on this court three years ago. To no surprise, the Spaniard has not found his best form during the post-U.S. Open fall season. Also to no surprise, he continues to find ways to win. Wawrinka needs a fast start to give himself belief that he can compete in this matchup. He should take a small step forward. Nadal in three sets (loses the first).
Ricky: Is it really that preposterous to predict a Wawrinka victory in this one? Other than their past history against one another, no. Admittedly, their head-to-head record is glaring; but only five of Wawrinka’s 10 losses have come on hard courts and just two have come during the fall swing–traditionally Nadal’s worst time of the year. The Swiss is a much different player since a 2007 loss in Paris and 2010 setback at this same Shanghai event. He is in the midst of his best season on tour and it is tantalizingly close to being that much better, but five-setters against Djokovic in Melbourne and New York both went the Serb’s way. Wawrinka is due for a signature win to cap off his 2013 campaign, and there is no reason why it can’t come against opponent who is just 6-3 lifetime in non-retirement matches in Shanghai and who almost lost to Fognini last week before getting routined by Djokovic. Wawrinka in three sets (loses the second).
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Poor prediction re rafa/wawa. Rafa in straights, his level in first set against berlocq was back to us open quality, and he cares about this title, he didn’t care about beijing.
Nadal would have lost a set to Berlocq had it not been for a Berlocq double-fault.
and Berlocq is no Stan.
Ricky Dimon@October 10, 2013 at 10:55 pm
It would have been 6-6 in the tiebreak (after Rafa’s serve).
We’ll see who’s right tomorrow, the only reason you’re picking wawa is to go along with your pre tourny picks. Did you actually watch the full match against berlocq? First set was v v high level from rafa, and in 2nd he dropped off a bit. And did you see his reaction after winning, rafa isnt that pumped unless he really wants a tournament win? Rafa’s back from his mini slump in beijing.
yes i watched it.
he was pumped because he almost lost. he celebrates like that at every tournament. even the meaningless ones. just like Ferrer.
what has Nadal done for me to change my pre-tournament picks? He’s looked like I expected him to look. Not worse and certainly not better.
we gonna see,no!
extremely well said
Another perspective on Rafa’s win against Berlocq, from a Nole fan:
RT @juanjo_sports; “Gutted for Charly Berlocq. He was so very good against Nadal. Fully deserved at least a set. However, the magical things Nadal did to take that breaker were otherworldly. The man does not cease to amaze.”
Not in Rafa’s mind its not. Thats the key difference. Rafa didn’t have the motivation to win Beijing, in Shanghai he does, its obvious from his level and body language.
but this is good discussion.
:thumbsup:
We did see. Wawa in 3 sets was a poor prediction. Rafa playing much too well and wants this tournament badly. Ricky you attached to much importance to a meaningless 500 point tournament (Beijing).
well this is a meaningless 1000 point tournament, so what gives?
Not in Rafa’s mind its not. Thats the key difference. Rafa didn’t have the motivation to win Beijing, in Shanghai he does, its obvious from his level and body language.
“?” is a typo
I agree with Maden. After seeing Rafa’s match with Berlocq, I do think he will win in the quarterfinals against Wawa. I know that Wawa has had a breakthrough of sorts and is playing some of his best tennis, but he hasn’t looked invincible. Rafa is playing better than he did in Beijing. His serve stats are much improved. He played some outstanding tennis against Berlocq. I know that Berlocq isn’t Wawa, but it’s about the kind of form Rafa is in right now.
It’s not as though only Wawa has had a breakthrough. Rafa has played some of the best hard court tennis of his career this year. He has been much more aggressive on hard court this year. There is no reason to think that he can’t continue to do so against Wawa.
I tend to agree with Chris. I can see Wawa breaking through to get a set off Rafa, but I still think that Rafa will come through in a tough three setter.
email ,Ricky !
posting shortly
Chris Skelton in his Tsonga-Mayer preview: ‘But his biggest advantage? He’s not Spanish.’ LOL
Nadal vs. Wawrinka preview and pick – https://tenngrand.com/2013/10/11/shanghai-qf-preview-and-pick-nadal-vs-wawrinka/
—‘But his biggest advantage? He’s not Spanish.’—
Spaniard David Ferrer lost a small (meaningless) battle to Florian Mayer, but he’ll rise to No.3 in the ATP rankings when they are updated on Monday. 🙂
And Ferrer has qualified for the WTF.
Really liked reading the pre match predictions
#ThumbsUp
thanks 🙂
I’m very, very nervous that Ricky could be right 🙁
It is not impossible that Stan could pull off an upset.
If Wawa so much as takes a set off Rafa, never mind beating him, I’ll eat my Ipad…
You might want to season it mildly rafaisthebest,
I think Stan is going to take a set… but not win… no, no,no. Rafa is on the prowl, never discard that.
^^Okay then @Shireling, got my favourite seasoning, cayenne pepper, on the ready……..still don’t think it will be needed though………..
Monfils is at least going for his shots today ! great injections of pace and he looks serious today.. keeping a high 1st serve % too
Djokovic does not think this is a routine set……….I bet.
This could be a juicy match!
I was expecting it to be Nole who would pull Monfils from side to side but instead it’s the opposite. Nole looking anxiously towards his box all the time.
High quality set, can LaMonf keep it up?………….million dollar question.
Djoker in 3, with 3rd set blow-out……..
^^^^ I guess you’re right
Only way LaMonf shades Djoker is if he closes in 2 sets. Problem is, Djoker is going to clean up his game, eliminate the UEs, where does La Monf go? His level is already high enough, cannot improve on this, his level has to drop……….
Keep it going Gael………..
Some bizarre behaviour from Djokovic.
Bizarre behavior from both. Djokovic is annoyed with Monfils antics.. if monfils had the energy of set 1, this one could have gone his way… 5-4 to djokovic now after monfils saved match point on his serve… more drama?
Andy once commented it was difficult to concentrate at times when Monfils is on the other side of the net! Monfils drives me nuts at times, what on earth is up with him and coming forwards, does he have an allergy?
looked like handshake was good….
Gael Monfils exceeded the expectations of the experts. .)
GSM
#NID
now bring on rafa… novak was vulnerable today..was solid when it mattered though
Very entertaining match, if only LaMonf could stay healthy and take his game more seriously. Made Djokovic look ordinary………..
Djokovic has been practicing his volleying and over-head smashes……………
I clocked that too. Don’t remember him ever coming to the net so much – very successfully too one must say.
Luckily the right man won. it would’ve been a nonsense for Monfils to be in a Masters SF with his present lack of fitness.
very true, ed and RITB, djokovic volleyed exceptionally well ! both drop volleys and deep/punch volleys were awesome
—Wawrinka is due for a signature win…why it can’t come against opponent…who almost lost to Fabio Fognini last week before getting routined by—
Rafa routined the opponent who lost to Sam Querrey last week (in R16 of the China Open).
This victory elevated Rafa’s head-to-head record against S. Wawrinka to 11 – 0.
Rafa also exceeded the expectations of the experts. .)
Rafa also exceeded the expectations of the experts. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Agree with @Maden 3:13 pm. In Beijing, Rafa had one objective and one objective only: to regain the #1 spot. Once he regained it, he lost motivation, he was emotionally spent, and he had no fight left in the final. Now, I think his immediate goal is to wrap up the YE#1 and winning Shanghai would go a long way in doing that……………….
He is on a mission…………