Shanghai final preview and prediction: Rinderknech vs. Vacherot

The most improbable and surreal Masters 1000 final in history will take place at the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Sunday.

At No. 54 in the world, Arthur Rinderknech is shocking enough for a Masters 1000 finalist. His opponent, however, is ranked exactly 150 spots below that. Valentin Vacherot comes in at 204th, the lowest-ranked finalist in Masters 1000 history. And, oh yeah, they are first cousins.

Yes, it will be a family affair when Rinderknech and Vacherot go head-to-head for the second time in their careers–and in the biggest match of their careers. Their only previous encounter came seven years ago at a hard-court Futures event in France, where Rinderknech cruised 6-2, 6-4.

Needless to say, Vacherot’s breakthrough has come completely out of nowhere. The Monaco native wasn’t even on the initial qualifying direct entry list, but he got in following a bunch of withdrawals. Vacherot was two points away from losing in qualies to Liam Draxl yet managed to prevail 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4. The rest, of course, is history. The 26-year-old’s hard-to-believe run includes victories over Laslo Djere, Alexander Bublik, Tomas Machac, Tallon Griekspoor, Holger Rune, and Novak Djokovic.

Rinderknech’s hot streak dates back to the U.S. Open, where he advanced to the fourth round before losing in three relatively competitive sets to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz. The 30-year-old Frenchman booked his spot in the Shanghai championship match by defeating Hamad Medjedovic, Alex Michelsen, Alexander Zverev, Jiri Lehecka, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Daniil Medvedev. He is 12-3 in his last 15 matches.

“In the best dreams, we couldn’t have dreamt about this,” Rinderknech explained. “So I can’t even say it’s a dream, because I don’t think even one person in our family dreamt about it. So it wasn’t a dream; it’s just a dream that came out of nowhere.

“We started believing it…I would say in the quarters maybe. Now we are here; we fought through so many matches and somehow we are the [two] guys standing at the end, so it’s just incredible.”

You can pretty much throw rankings, results, and all other statistics out the window for this matchup. It’s all about how each guy handles the moment. Neither one has ever been on this kind of stage, plus a family member will be on the other side of the net.

Given Rinderknech’s much larger sample size of recent success and a big edge in experience, he will likely have the upper hand. But it goes without saying that anything could happen in a matchup that is fascinating for multiple reasons.

Pick: Rinderknech in 3