Rome QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Novak Djokovic took a circuitous route to make it happen, but the highly-anticipated Rome quarterfinal showdown between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal has come to fruition. They will meet again on Friday, with the winner to face either Kei Nishikori or Dominic Thiem.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 49th time in their careers when they collide again in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Friday afternoon.

Djokovic, who pulled even with Nadal at 23-23 with a World Tour Finals semifinal victory last fall, is now leading the head-to-head series 25-23. He prevailed earlier this season 6-1, 6-2 in the Doha title match and 7-6(5), 6-2 in the Indian Wells semis. Djokovic is on a six-match winning streak at Nadal’s expense and has won 13 consecutive sets, but the last four of those matches (and eight of the sets) have come on hard courts. Clay should give the world No. 5 a much better chance, and he is 13-6 against Djokovic on this surface. Nadal has won three of their five previous Rome encounters, but Djokovic most recently got the job done 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the 2014 final.

The top-ranked Serb made his trek to Friday’s quarterfinal contest more interesting than necessary, but he rebounded from a first-set bagel at the hands of Thomaz Bellucci to survive 0-6, 6-2, 6-3 on Thursday night. He preceded that result by scraping past qualifier Stephane Robert 7-5, 7-5, so it is safe to say Djokovic has showcased nothing close to his best stuff so far this week. The top seed lost to Jiri Vesely right off the bat in Monte-Carlo last month, but he bounced back from that performance by capturing the Madrid title.

Nadal also dropped the first set of his third-round affair before overcoming Nick Kyrgios 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-4. The Spaniard is now 49-4 lifetime at the Rome Masters with seven titles. The recent Monte-Carlo champion, who preceded his defeat of Kyrgios by beating Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-3, 6-3, is 27-7 for the season and 15-1 on the current clay-court swing.

Although Djokovic’s form has been less than outstanding in Rome, he can expected to inevitably raise his level against tougher competition. After all, he is 24-1 in his last 25 sets against top-15 competition dating back to his semifinal victory over Roger Federer at the Australian Open. The surface will help Nadal make this one competitive and probably even steal a set, but Djokovic will likely extend his streak to seven against the nine-time French Open champion.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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35 Comments on Rome QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. I want and wish Rafa to win ….. but I think Novak will win in 2 sets with tb

    be my wish fullfilled 🙂

  2. Djoker in three but it could go the way of Rafa if he brings something special and Novak starts slow like he has been lately. Should be a good match. I want Stan to keep the #4 ranking but at the same time I still want Rafa to take this matchup. If he does he will surely make the final, thus giving him the four seed heading into RG. Boy would I love to see him take down Novak.

  3. My heart says Rafa but the mind says otherwise…. Nevertheless Rafa has a chance of clinching a set if Novak doesn’t come out all guns firing…. Let us hope that Rafa doesn’t have a meltdown…

  4. Novak in 2 sets. Seen this movie before. Novak struggling before rafa and turning into superman agaonst rafa:(. Wish rafa catches a break.

    Novak 64 62

  5. Well, let’s face it: being bageled by Bellucci is not something to be ignored…Novak also had hard time beating Robert (who??) and was trailing in the second set…I always said the time will soon come when Novak will not be able to play like a machine…he is human after all…and he no longer looks invisible…

    Rafa certainly can beat this Novak…the thing is whether Rafa believes he can do it…I want Rafa to play freely with no pressure…he should just let his tennis talk instead of overthinking about what happened in their recent encounters…

    Rafa is on the upward path…Novak is showing signs of vulnerability…and there is no POD in Europe…Novak will have to rely on his gluten-free diet only…

    Rafa will come out strong! Novak as well will raise his level… but it remains to be seen whether or not Rafa has improved sufficiently enough to remain calm and confident to be able to beat his nemesis…

    All I want is for Rafa to play to win instead of playing not to lose!

    Vamos Champ!

  6. Only the Stanimal could have won RG but he is out to lunch. Don’t think he can turn it on this year.
    Back to tomorrow’s match, I don’t think either man has the vision to see what losing this match could mean: less pressure on them and much needed rest. I expect a long battle tomorrow but can’t call a winner.

  7. I certainly think Rafa believes he can win this one. They way he played against Nick gives me great confidence. Tomorrow the entire dynamic of the ATP Tour could change. Don’t forget Rafa was close in IW. The problem then was he did not think he cud win. Now he does.

    • yeah he has a shot! He can win….novak’s obv the favorite but Rafa has a shot here.

      Rafa’s new serving position will also set up more points for him to dictate and also cover his vulnerability…

      VAMOS!

      • Don’t you think revealing this to Novak before French is an issue ? Remember in Rome 2014 rafa lost in 3 but played as he does but in fo 2014 he changed serves and jammed Novak with body serves

    • I agree that Rafa has a shot at the win here. He will need to serve well and capitalize on break opportunitie. Rafa can’t afford to have mental lapses, especially when it’s serving for the set or consolidating breaks.

      It goes without saying that Rafa will need the forehand to be on fire. The DTL forehand has to be there.

      Novak has the big mental advantage, having beaten Rafa so many times without dropping a set. But Rafa will come into this match with real confidence this time.

      I think Rafa will fight for this one with everything he’s got.

  8. Poor Rafa, after what happened in 2015 he’s no longer the fav on clay when facing Djoko.

    I still remember people were still arguing who’s the fav for the FO – Djoko or Rafa – back during 2013-2014 and many still regarded Rafa as the fav at FO. This time round, Djoko will always be the fav over Rafa even on clay, unless Rafa proves that he still can beat Djoko on clay.

    Go Rafa! Go get your first win over Djoko since FO2014 and may many subsequent wins over Djoko come you way thereafter! VAMOS!

    • Since AO 2011, Novak has always been the favourite for everything and he is still waiting to win the FO. I am so grateful to Stanimal for denying Novak the RG crown last year, I can’t tell you.

    • Luckystar (AT 1:35 AM),

      What happened to Rafa in 2015, was a consequence of his injuries and health problems (appendectomy) in 2014.

  9. To me a lot will depend on how willing Nadal is to try to break the Djokovic forehand. Although I feel Djokovic has a much better forehand but slightly weaker backhand since what he used to produce in 2011, I think a change in patterns (or a return to 2013 patterns) is what is needed to gain some ground in this matchup. Having said that, if Nole comes out firing as he usually does in these matches, I think he will win comfortably.

  10. Novak’s tactics with Nadal has been to attack Rafa’s forehand unlike the rest of the field going after Rafa’s backhand…Rafa’s FH wasn’t clicking in 2015 and it lead to low confidence and distrust in his own game. In his match with Kyrgios Rafa showed superb version of his FH! When that happens Novak will have to look for more answers while Rafa gains more confidence! Then it gets difficult to play Rafa even for Novak…

    Vamos Rafa!

  11. Rafa should just abandon all nerves and adopt a nothing to lose ‘aktitude’ and just go for it. He’s a better player than Djoker at the end of the day just that injuries and illness have taken their toll and knocked his rhythm and confidence back a bit.

    • This is exactly what I meant when saying that Rafa should play to win!

      The key is for Rafa to be “with calm”!

      Vamos!

  12. I like Novak but he was playing like s… in Rome and it will be an easy win for Nadal today. Something like 6-3 , 6-4 Nadal.

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