Rome R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Shapovalov, Zverev vs. Edmund

Monte-Carlo champion Rafael Nadal and Madrid winner Alexander Zverev are part of the third-round schedule on Thursday in Rome. They are set for respective showdowns against Denis Shapovalov and Kyle Edmund.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Denis Shapovalov

A grand total of three active players have winning records against Nadal; Novak Djokovic is 26-24, and after that nobody who has faced the Spaniard more than twice is better than .500. Dustin Brown is 2-0 and Shapovalov is 1-0, having pulled off a 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(4) upset last summer in Montreal. Nadal will have a shot at revenge when they meet again in round three of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Thursday, and this time he gets to play on clay at a tournament he has won on seven occasions. Bouncing back from a Madrid quarterfinal loss to Dominic Thiem, Nadal began his bid for an eighth rome title and improved to 15-1 on clay in 2018 when he trounced Damir Dzumhur 6-1, 6-0 on Wednesday.

An in-form Shapovalov, who is building confidence on the slow stuff, should provide a tougher test. Having never previously won an ATP-level match on clay, the 10-year-old Canadian made a run to last week’s Madrid semifinals before succumbing to eventual champion Alexander Zverev. Getting right back in business in Rome, Shapovalov booked his spot in the last 16 thanks to three-set defeats of Tomas Berdych and Robin Haase. Nadal will undoubtedly pound the world No. 29’s one-handed backhand with a steady diet of topspin forehands and fatigue could set in sooner rather than later for Shapovalov.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Kyle Edmund vs. (2) Alexander Zverev

Perhaps the hottest player on tour other than Nadal, Zverev is riding a 10-match winning streak, boasts a 13-1 record in clay-court tournaments this season, and is 19-3 in his last 22 matches overall heading into Thursday. The 21-year-old German is a borderline Masters 1000 specialist, with three such titles–including last week in Madrid and last year at this same Rome event. Zverev kicked off his title defense with a 7-5, 6-2 victory over Italian wild card Matteo Berrettini on Wednesday night.

Up next for the world No. 3 is a third career contest against Edmund, who is 0-2 lifetime in the head-to-head series. Their first encounter ended in retirement at the 2016 Nice tournament after they split the first two sets, and Zverev more recently prevailed 6-3, 7-6(3) last fall in Beijing. Already a much different player now, Edmund enjoyed a breakthrough at this year’s Australian Open (semifinals) and his clay-court resume includes a runner-up finish in Marrakech and a quarterfinal performance in Madrid. The 19th-ranked Brit maintained momentum by beating Malek Jaziri and Lucas Pouille earlier this week. Displaying impressive clay-court prowess, Edmund should have a good opportunity to take advantage of an opponent who has played a ton of recent tennis and may be eager to focus on the French Open.

Pick: Edmund in 3

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19 Comments on Rome R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Shapovalov, Zverev vs. Edmund

  1. Shapo was arguing about how much time elapsed when the chair umpire went to check the mark on his serve and realized he made a mistake. He thought that too much time had gone by. But it’s really just about losing this match.

  2. Rafa playing like this is such a pleasure to watch.

    Shapo now knows what it is like taking Rafa’s topspin balls on clay, certainly very heavy, much heavier than when it’s on the HCs when Rafa hits it flatter.

    I like this aggressive Rafa, will have to keep it up when facing Foggy next; Foggy certainly a tough opponent in his own backyard.

    • Omg, Fognini is about to get straight EMBARRASSED in front of his home crowd! Someone better warn him that it ain’t 2015 anymore haha. I’ll guess 6-2, 6-1. Fabio ain’t gettin’ more than 3 games. Not tomorrow.

    • For me, too. Rafa always says it’s not about revenge but I’m not that high-minded! For the record, after his loss to Shapo in Montreal Rafa said that Shapo is a good player but he, Rafa, was not playing well that day. Not what he usually says after a match, but it was true, I think. Rafa didn’t play well until halfway through the USO when he said he stepped it up during the Mayer match.

  3. Now Shapo knows where he stands vs Rafa on clay. It’s a hard truth to face. He’s got a lot of work to do. But I like watching Shapo play tennis.

    I can’t get excited about Edmund. He’s good, he’s probably a nice kid but his tennis is blah. Nothing personal. Was never a fan of Courier tennis either – which is what Edmund appears to resemble. Nice man, it seems tho, Courier.

    Go Sascha!

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