Rome Masters final preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Rune

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On his worst surface and in slow conditions, Daniil Medvedev had never won a single match at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia prior to this season.

Nothing has changed about the tournament; in fact, if anything conditions in 2023 are even slower than usual given how bad the weather has been throughout this fortnight. It does, however, look like much different clay-court version of Medvedev.

Lifting his game exponentially on dirt, the world No. 3–who also reached the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals earlier this spring–is through to the championship match of the third and final clay-court Masters 1000 event thanks to wins over Emil Ruusuvuori, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Alexander Zverev, Yannick Hanfmann, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Up next for Medvedev on Sunday is Holger Rune, who ended the Russian’s run in Monte-Carlo with a 6-3, 6-4 victory. The 20-year-old Dane has not looked back since finishing runner-up in the principality, with a title in Munich immediately thereafter and now a third appearance in a Masters 1000 final (also won the Paris Indoors last fall). Rune has advance in Rome by beating Arthur Fils, Fabio Fognini, Alexei Popyrin, Novak Djokovic, and Casper Ruud.

Holger Rune


Medvedev finished his semifinal much later on Saturday, but thanks to an impressive performance he avoided a third set with Tsitsipas. Rune, on the the other hand, needed two hours and 43 minutes to overcome Ruud 6-7(2), 6-4, 6-2. That could be a factor on Sunday, because you know Medvedev is going to turn this into a grueling battle from the back of the court.

Medvedev is 5-3 lifetime in Masters 1000 finals and all three of his losses have come to opponents ranked in the top two at the time (Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and Rafael Nadal). With the No. 2 seed at Roland Garros at stake, the 27-year-old will be extremely motivated to secure a sixth Masters title.

Pick: Medvedev in 3

[yop_poll id=”243″]

26 Comments on Rome Masters final preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Rune

  1. Let me be the first to go against that. Rune to win his second Masters. I have to see him lose to Medvedev on a clay court to believe it.
    All respect to Tsitsipas but he is not Holger Rune

  2. Even that would make Nole #3 and possibility of facing Spaniard in the FO SF, (though I don’t see Nole getting that far) I would like to see Madvedev lifting the Rome trophy and I think he can do with those octopus arms.

  3. Medvedev’s forehand has improved a lot on clay – he’s absolutely banging it, and to beat Tsitsipas in straight sets on clay when he’s in that kind of form is impressive.

    You can never count out Rune but this should be as straightforward as the Miami final against Sinner.

    • Agree with both your comments. Med’s clay game is up a notch now, with that forehand and I expect him to win. But Rune is a “never say die” kind of guy so you should never discount him, but at the moment he is more a work in progress, than Danii.
      Like them both very much. Danii reminds me so much of Andy with that dry humour and that wry grin…and those outbursts when he feels hard done by!

      • That’s what I like about Med,too.His game and personality.Much prefer him to Tsitsi.Ruud is just plain dull and Rune needs to grow up

        • I like Med. Also much prefer him to Tsitsi. Talking of Tsitsi these interchanges with his family are becoming embarrassing and quasi farcical. His ordering his mother to move from the player’s box was completely cringe. He either needs to sort out his issues with his family or ditch them and get a new coach.
          Anyway, in the ” dance off” stakes between him and Tsitsi Med wins hands down. Thinking of Tsitsi’s dance routine after beating Med in cincy..!😀
          Med is just a naturally funny guy. I especially like his sarcastic thumbs down to the crowd like some Roman emperor.

  4. I would’ve probably added that Rune is akin to a lucky loser because it was only a lapse in concentration serving at 4:2 by Ruud that got him there.

    • Hilarious. Then why did Ruud not finish the match later on? Its normal to get a break of serve back especially on clay. Nobody told Ruud to stop playing tennis. He got thrashed. Easy Pick in the final. He just ran him over in MC

  5. Rune never looked like a winner until that point. Was playing catch up in most of his service games. That was a nice omission from your preview which is important when considering guys prospects in the final. You’ve made it sound like Rune winning was a formality but took him a long time.

    More inherent dishonesty?

  6. I believe Rune has beat the better of the players in this tournament and after beating djokovic and seeing him fluster the same medvediv a month ago I feel this will be similar it may not be straight sets but that is why I’m leaning towards Rune. He has the better serve on clay and is hitting more winners. This is a better medvediv on clay but I still see Rune winning in 3 to continue his Im here party.

  7. Medvedev has never taken a set from Holger on a clay court, and they played many practice matches. You don’t suddenly go from never being able to take a set from a guy to beat him in such a short period. They played like 3 practice matches and 1 official, that’s 8-0 in sets to Holger on clay.

  8. Well.done Med!
    Justice done as that first ball was out so Med should have had 2 set points not 1.
    They really need hawkeye on clay. So many bad calls.

  9. Med clay masters champion!!😀
    Who would have thought it!
    Huge ramifications as he will be #2 so Alcaraz and Novak could meet in the sfs.

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