Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Both men took the circuitous route to get there, but Sunday’s final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia will feature the top two seeds: Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.

It will be the 57th installment of one of the great rivalries in tennis history, with Djokovic currently leading the head-to-head series 29-27. Such a close margin hardly means anything, but there is a statistic that is especially telling as the Rome title match looms. Nadal is 4-0 in their last four clay-court encounters, while Djokovic 10-0 in their last 10 meetings on all other surfaces.

For Nadal, that isn’t exactly unique to his matchup with Djokovic. After all, the King of Clay generally dominates all opponents on his favorite surface while sometimes struggling–relatively speaking, at least–elsewhere. Although he has not been his dominant self on clay this spring, Nadal managed to triumph in Barcelona and he is picking up even more momentum in Rome as he prepares for an upcoming bid for a 14th French Open title. So far this week the world No. 3 has knocked off Jannik Sinner, Denis Shapovalov, Alexander Zverev, and Reilly Opelka. Nadal needed to save two match points against Shapovalov, but with new life he raised his level to erase both Zverev and Opelka in straight sets.

“I [have done] a lot of things well [and played with a] good spirit during all the week,” the 34-year-old assessed. “[There are] a lot of positive things I [have done] on court this week and it is important for my confidence to be back in such an important final like this one.”

Djokovic has gone in the other direction in Rome. The top-seeded Serb opened with straight-set wins over Taylor Fritz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but Saturday was a grueling day. Djokovic outlasted Stefanos Tsitsipas 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 in a rain-delayed quarterfinal and then withstood a spirited charge by Lorenzo Sonego to prevail 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-2 in the semis.

The world No. 1 spent more than five hours on the court in one day alone and now has to face Nadal without any rest. Nadal, on the other hand, finished off Zverev before the rain came on Friday and he required only one hour and 32 minutes in the semis against Opelka.

“I don’t have much time [to recover]; I played a lot of tennis,” Djokovic admitted. “Hopefully I’ll have fresh legs, because that’s what I definitely will need. It’s necessary in order to have a chance against Rafa. He (has) also had some tough matches…. Hopefully tomorrow I’ll be fresh and I’ll give it all.”

Even though Djokovic is one of the fittest and all-around toughest players in tennis history, both the physical and mental toll of Saturday’s effort cannot be overstated. Plus, on clay Nadal would be a considerable favorite even if you don’t take what happened in the quarterfinals and semis into account.

This Masters 1000 tournament means more to Nadal, too, so you have to like his chances to get the job done.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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76 Comments on Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. Nadal might leave a set to Djokovic if the Serb fights really hard for it, but unless Rafa has a really bad day he can’t lose this. Most likely Nadal in two, he bags the first set easily and weathers Novak’s resurgence in a tight second.

  2. even though this isn’t a slam, I’m sure Nole would like to beat Rafa on clay especially in a final if he has a chance.

    over 21.5 games.

  3. Iga swiatel is streamrolling pliskova in the final.. match almost done.. barely 40 mins played… swiatek has lost 3 points on serve so far and that was in one game😨😨

  4. Neither of them at their best, still good enough to take the win against Tsitsipas.
    I expect a close match this time. Probably Djokovic cares a lot about building the confidence on clay with Nadal. So, even a loss could help him if it’s a close one.

  5. Man.. this rafole match up sucks up my emotional energy completely.. can barely do anything the days before the match.. felt something similar before the french open final last year

    The man has inflicted so many scars over the years on rafa fans…

    A good omen is swiatek won a day before then too

  6. It will be interesting to see how Nadal’s serve holds up against Djoker’s return. Djoker wouldn’t want to engage in long rallies for sure and play aggressively to shorten points. Nadal in 2 sets but it can go to distance if serving woes continue. Djoker win is not impossible to fathom but this needle is tending towards Nadal..

  7. If Rafa losses this match I would say fatigue is likely the factor, after all he’s spent more time on court than Novak!! 🙄

  8. Rafa tends to overhit his shots these days, his shots lack precision. I guess he’s moving slower these days hence the timing of his shots is off.

    When Rafa plays against Djoko, he’s usually the one losing in court positioning, Djoko tends to be the one who steps inside the court more often, pushing Rafa further back in the process.

  9. Djoko looks the better player between the two, despite Rafa having so many FH winners.

    I have to say that Djoko these days has better court craft than Rafa even on clay. He can come out with all sorts of varieties to win points, usually being the one in control of the points. It’s no wonder he’s the number one player!

    • Id agree , Rafa depends more on physicality . Its pretty close rivalry, but theres always the feeling that Nole can beat Rafa on any surface more than the other way around. Some of his shots today were pure genius.

      • Rafa won mainly because he hit his forehand really well on both sides. Its one of the best forehands of all time

    • Humbert articulating what the world and his wife know that Rafa is the King of Clay.

      “Even More Difficult…”: Ugo Humbert on Beating Rafael Nadal on Clay
      Published 04/28/2021, 9:14 AM EDT

      Rising French tennis star Ugo Humbert has said that it’s hard to play piano but even harder to beat Rafael Nadal on clay.

      To a question on whether playing the piano is relatively easier than beating the ‘King of Clay’ of his favorite surface, the 22-year-old said playing the musical instrument is hard but it is nothing compared to battling the Spaniard on soil.

      Humbert said being a pianist is a lot tougher than playing tennis but when it comes to leveling with Nadal on dirt, nothing else compares.

      “Playing the piano is more difficult than playing tennis! But it is even more difficult to beat Nadal on the ground!” Humbert said.

      https://www.essentiallysports.com/stefanos-tistsipas-atp-tennis-news-even-more-difficult-ugo-humbert-on-beating-rafael-nadal-on-clay/

  10. That game to breal djoko where he belted three winners…

    Big 2 are alive and well

    Iga wins in two sets in paris and rome while rafa wins in 3 sets at paris and rome🙃

  11. Congrats Rafa, a 10th Rome title, and 36th Masters title!

    He edged past Djoko by merely three points, and Djoko won most of the long rallies and Rafa most of the under five shots.

    Rafa gets to keep his 1000 points from 2019, so no dropping of points. Hopefully he will play better at the FO and brings back the trophy again!

    • Yes, but that does not matter. It could be like a 2013 where Djoko and Rafa SF was sort of finals, but yes this deserves to be a final.

      First time in many years, this RG, we have Tsitsipas, Zverev and Rublev as well who are playing well and Theim comes in with a lot of question mark.

  12. When it mattered, Rafa was able to raise his level, and I think that’s important because we can’t expect Rafa to be playing consistently well all the time at his age now.

    Of course Djoko being Djoko was able to play well enough to win in three sets against the younger opponents and then lost narrowly to Rafa in three sets.

    Have to admire both Rafa and Djoko for their fighting spirit, simply didn’t give up when falling behind and fought till the very end!

    • I agree @ Luckystar! Novak played well up till the end. Neither he nor Rafa is at their ruthless best but they fought till the end and that is what we want to see. I wish them both the best of luck fr the rest of the season. Vamos, Rafa!!

  13. Rafa did it again!! Now on towards the French, and bring that trophy home too!! Rafa now has time to go tune up the kinks in his armour and then come prepared to do battle. It will be interesting to see who’s going to be on his half/side of the draw! I will not be surprised if Rublev, Zverev and the like will be there, sigh!

  14. Rafa wont mind extra week to take it little easy and work on his serve and BH and come even more prepared for Roland Garros.

    • Tsitsi probably a good bet to go deep. Maybe Zverev if he can get it together for a slam. Both of them have tendencies to get involved in long 5 setters early on which can saps them for the late rounds. Thiem’s a very dark horse this year.

  15. Vamos Rafa! He continues to amaze. After Madrid, when I saw the Rome draw I just thought “there’s no way!”. Well, it wasn’t always pretty but Rafa found a way. Simply amazing. Kudos to the Rafans here who can still watch Rafa playing live.

    • Ha ha Ramara, I don’t know why but these days I can watch Rafa’s live matches with more calm, compared to during 2011 to 2016 (dark age of Rafa’s tennis career imo). I think after Rafa winning against Djoko at the FO last year for his 20th major title has given me that kind of satisfaction that I tend not to be too bothered about Rafa’s losses these days. Of course Rafa losing at the slam(s) is/are always disappointing.

      How often during 2011-2016, that I watched only the live scores, and couldn’t stop worrying how Rafa would fare in all those matches esp when against Djoko!

      Prior to 2011, I could watch Rafa playing on clay with relaxed mood, knowing that he would deliver, and there was so much joy watching him play esp on clay. Of course his epic matches Vs Fed at Wimbledon and at AO were the exceptions, being roller coaster rides throughout those matches!

      Those were the days and nowadays, Rafa could lose here and there, to young players as well, but he’s still winning the big titles and that’s very satisfying.

      • Luckystar, 2011-2016 were not rafa’s dark age in terms of his tennis career! My God! Have you forgotten one of his best years ever-2013, coming back from 6 or more months off from knee injury to beat Djokovic 3 times in a row in French open, Montreal (hardcourt) and US open (hard court), winning the North America hard court slam (Montreal, cinnicinati and US open) which nobody has ever done except roddick (not even Djoko or fed). And he became world no 1 and that year some Rafans including me were looking forward to Rafa facing Djoko even on hardcourt bc he was exceptional from French open to after US open. Absolutely not a dark age at all, sorry 2013 was an exception, a glorious year!! Lol 😂

  16. Congrats Rafa. A well deserved trophy for you. Faced a very tough draw and passed the test in flying colors. Got better as each match progressed. Well done.

    Vamos Rafa.

    • On hindsight you could say that, but during 2013 when he was just back from his long injury, and was looking shaky even on clay, how could we know what were to come?

      Don’t forget, his FO SF Vs Djoko that year, it was a narrow win or escape when he was 2-4 down in the fifth set. At that time I really thought that he was going to lose that SF!

      Yes 2013 turned out to be one of his best years but what was to follow in 2014 was a heartbreak in the AO final and then the struggles during the clay season, and then the defeat at Wimbledon to Kyrgios followed by his wrist injury and had to miss the NA HC season and no chance of defending his USO title!

      2015 was the worst year of his career and in 2016 he had wrist injury and had to withdraw from the FO after reaching the second round. Another injury had caused him to end 2016 earlier than normal and that year he had the lowest ranking points ever in his career since 2004.

      So overall, those years were the dark ages in Rafa’s career, imo.

  17. This is the best we have seen so far from Rafa on clay! Rafa played very well and of course he had lapses in his game since it was Novak on the opposite side of the net. I never bought this theory that Novak would be fatigued.. Novak is probably the fittest one on tour and let’s not forget he is one year younger than Rafa which does make a difference at their age…Novak also played very well. They both deserve admiration and huge respect!
    I am pleased to see how Rafa progressed to win this tourney against his biggest rival…his serve improved tremendously by the finals…he played some killing FHs and sharpening his BHs…he will be ready for RG!

    Vamos Champ! We are so proud of you!

  18. Rafa won! I don’t care if it was by one point or ten points! Considering his serving problems, this is a great result! People were saying her3 that they did not expect Rafa to win Rome! Well he did by beating tough opponents who pushed him.

    People were starting to write Rafa’s epitaph. A win is a win is a win! No matter how close or lopsided!

    Well done Rafa!

    The King is alive and well! Rafa did it as much with his heart and will to win as with his tennis. He is getting there!

    I am so proud of Rafa!
    🎉🎊🏆

  19. I was hoping Sonego would take Djokovic out because I didn’t want Rafa to play Djokovic in the final. Now I think it’s better because Rafa will have more confidence if they meet at RG.

    • I was hoping for Rublev in the final so Rafa could get a revenge before the FO (he did beat Zverev here at Rome for a revenge of the Madrid loss). It’s not just for revenge sake, but beating those who had beaten him during this clay season might calm his mind a bit, if he were to meet them at the FO.

      Of course meeting Djoko in the Rome final was challenging, and worrying at the same time (worrying because of Rafa’s wobbling serve). A win by Rafa would give him confidence for the FO, but a loss might cast doubts in Rafa’s mind (and worried his fans even more!).

      I’m so glad that Rafa passed the test; it would be a confidence boost, just in time for the FO.

  20. Yeah, I think we are so coward when Rafa plays Nole and for good reason, but I think Rafa gave a good account of himself, and quite honesty, I think he looks forward to the challenge regardless of surface!

    Now I can’t wait to see how the RG draw lines up! Vamos!!

  21. I am ofcourse happy about Rafas win but I’m not sure how much it will matter. Novak knows he played a lot yesterday n despite that if he could take rafa to 3 n breadstick him in a set ,I think novak will take more confidence out of the match than Rafa. I’m eager to see their pressers

    I think between these 2, it’s not about who wins or loses always ,they see the positives in a loss too.

    • Novak never likes to lose to Rafa. No matter the circumstances. Of course he is not going to panic over this loss. He will go to the French ready for battle.

      Given where Rafa’s game has been during this clay season, I think he will be very happy about this result. After not playing for most of the last year, we can see what match play does for him.

      Rafa can fine tune his game now so he will be ready to go at RG.

      • I’m not making any predictions when it comes to RG! How many times have we seen upset after upset and the players we think will go deep fall along the way side opening the draw for the favorites. All I am hoping for is that Rafa wins, loL!!

        • Mona,

          I agree. No predictions. No wish list fir the draw. As you said, the players we end up worrying about get knocked out early.

          I feel better about Rafa’s chances now. He has two weeks fir some practice to work out the kinks. But he looked so happy when he won today. Lovely to see.
          😍

  22. Yeah Novak is scary- even on clay for the fans at least… every service game against him is spent on tenterhooks and at least as a fan i consider the set gone till they are on serve.

    Hopefully rafa gets the medvedev half and the roger quarter and non sinner round of 16

    • Rublev qtr will be better..my wish thiem djoko ,fed thiem ,rafa rublev , med zverev in qf 🙂 ..somehow need to avoid both tsitsi n zverev ..atleast tsitsi

      Sinner ,sonego ,karatsev are the landmines for third n fourth for anyone

  23. Novak is saying he felt no fatigue n could have played few more hours

    Says he is going to play in belgrade again ..wasn’t that over already where he lost to karatsev

    N he is playing just the week before french..strange ?

    When is french btw? 30th May ?

    • Yes, RG starts 2 weeks after Rome this year, and Sunday start as usual, I guess.

      Belgrade is in Serbia so I guess Djoker feels he “has” to play it, and, yes, there was a clay tournament in Belgrade the week after MC and Djoko played there, but lost to Karatsev in the quarters. He lost early at MC, did not play Madrid or Barce, so I guess he feels he needs more clay practice, plus I’m sure Djoker likes playing in his home country. There’s still a week after Belgrade before RG starts so no reason why not.

      • RG starts right after Belgrade, there is no week in between. Strange Djoker is playing that, I expect a late withdrawal from Djoker

        • Yes it’s the week preceding RG. Maybe he is obliged as it’s his home tourney. Btw did they not just play there few weeks back ?

          Novak in his presser said that he is getting good sensations for Paris after Rome and hopes to go all the way. That statement scared me (:-

          • Honestly, what else would you expect him to say? That’s not scary. It’s just what he has to do. A loss at Rome is not the end of the world for him. He knows what he has to work on now.

            Novak has been through this too many times to freak out over a loss to Rafa on clay. He knows the match was competitive. Now it’s on to RG. He will take the good things out of this.

          • Yes, agree here. And Rafa will also take a lot of confidence from his win. He was not at his best and still he came thru this draw and beat his biggest rival. In a way it was a brutal week form him, so extra one week will do a world of good for him.

            I still think on a sunny day at RG where the ball bounces a lot more than Rome, Rafa’s forehand and BH go up a notch. FH just zips and Rafa can be comfortable that BH can also make use of extra bounce.

          • Yeah.. also some of the drop shots that he could not get to or could not do much with were sinking into the court which should not be the case in sunnier conditions.

            But Rafa should continue to put opponents away quickly in the earlier rounds.. With increasing age, that becomes even more crucial..

  24. Active players with the most ATP titles on clay:

    Nadal = 62

    Djokovic+Federer+Robredo+Thiem+Fognini+Wawrinka = 62

  25. Congratulations to Rafa for winning his 10th Rome Masters trophy!!!!!!!!!!

    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆

    Vaaaaaaaaaamoooooooooos Rafa!!!!!!!!!!

    💪 💪 💪 💪 💪 💪 💪 💪 💪 💪

    👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏

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