It’s a dream semifinal lineup for Canada, with two of its own joining Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal for Saturday action. A surprising matchup on the bottom half of the Montreal draw pits Milos Raonic against Vasek Pospisil.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Rafael Nadal
Djokovic and Nadal will be squaring off for the 36th time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Rogers Cup on Saturday night. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 20-15, but Djokovic has won 11 of their 16 hard-court meetings. They have faced each other twice this season, with Djokovic ending Nadal’s Monte-Carlo reign courtesy of a 6-2, 7-6(1) victory in the title match before the Spaniard earned revenge with an epic 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7(3), 9-7 triumph in the French Open semis.
Although this is by no means his best tournament, Nadal has been in outstanding hard-court form in 2013. The world No. 4 captured the title in Indian Wells and has remained undefeated on hards for the season thanks to straight-set scalps this week of Jesse Levine, Jerzy Janowicz, and Marinko Matosevic. Nadal is the only one of the four Montreal semifinals who has not dropped a set, while Djokovic surrendered one to Denis Istomin during a disappointing third-round performance. That was sandwiched in between blowouts of Florian Mayer and Richard Gasquet. The top-ranked Serb is 42-6 for the year; Nadal is an outrageous 46-3.
Nadal may have a slight edge in current level of play, but–as their past history suggests–surface seems to be the most important factor in this rivalry. The eight-time Roland Garros champion is 13-3 lifetime against Djokovic on clay and a mere 7-12 on all other surfaces. Nadal has played unusually aggressive so far this week, a strategy that propelled him to his lone U.S. Open title in 2010 and one that he must employ again to have chance versus Djokovic. It’s a more difficult tactic to implement, though, against an opponent like Djokovic who can consistently keep his groundstrokes deep in the court and with plenty of pace. Nadal had enough trouble with Djokovic on clay earlier this season, so the advantage should go to the two-time defending champion of this event.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
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(WC) Vasek Pospisil vs. (11) Milos Raonic
It will be an all-Canadian semifinal when Raonic and Pospisil clash for the first time in their careers at the ATP level on Saturday afternoon. They have played one another four times as professionals, three times on the Futures circuit and once in a Challenger event. Pospisil leads the head-to-head series 3-1, including 2-1 on hard courts. They have not met since 2010, when they split a pair of hard-court matches.
It has been a dream run for Pospisil, who needed a wild card just to get into the main draw before showcasing a flair for the dramatic. He upset an in-form John Isner in a third-set tiebreaker, crushed Radek Stepanek, edged Tomas Berdych in another third-set tiebreaker, then got a first-set retirement from Nikolay Davydenko. On fire right now in the immediate aftermath of a Challenger title in Vancouver, the world No. 71 will likely be seeded for the U.S. Open if he wins this one. Raonic, meanwhile, is finally heating up after a relative rough patch on clay and grass. Montreal’s No. 11 seed had been 2-5 in his last seven matches prior to this week, but he is back on track thanks to defeats of Jeremy Chardy, Mikhail Youzhny, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Ernests Gulbis.
Raonic has never played in a Masters semifinal, but he has been to the quarters on two previous occasions (Toronto and Cincinnati last summer). Pospisil, of course, has never been anywhere close to this stage of such a tournament. Furthermore, an emotional Pospisil has used a raucous crowd to fuel his amazing trip in Montreal. He won’t get the same support against a fellow Canadian in Raonic, who has relied on a huge serve, some opponents’ gifts (from Gulbis), and some controversy (against Del Potro). Against a more experienced player with the fans not entirely on his side, this may be where the dream ends for Pospisil.
Pick: Raonic in 3
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Rafan, nole’s fall from 2011 has a lot to do with rafa’s turning around this rivalry ! he is denting nole’s mentality with every match now…. but yes other than that, nole is not cloes to that 2011 level in many regards
Gotta really admire Rafa..he actually turned it around. He took his break, worked on his mental strength, his body, his shots, his approach.
And Rafa-Nole is actually the true rivalry..its very intense, matches are very tight..today too Rafa won 97 points to Noles 95..it was that close..
Fed/Rafa had its good days but then it was always a bit lopsided
Ill tell you what Fed took form it……………………oh, oh, God damn, Rafa is REALLY back!!!!!…….hehehe!!!!
@sana, lol..much appreciated
I am so eager to see Rafa Murray face off..its been like nearly 2 years they havent, Sep 2011 Tokyo was last right?
Really keen to see the newer GS winning Murray taking on the aggressive Rafa
And I wonder what Nole took away from this match..he actually played this agressive Rafa..damn that will make him more cautious and prepared for USO
And yeah Montreal was a faster HC..one of the fastest..so no hearing ‘but he won on IW that is as slow as clay is :-)’
I am not sure of Cincy but today if Fed would have played either of the 2, he would have lost badly..He jut wouldn’t have been able to keep up with the intensity
final preview and pick – https://tenngrand.com/2013/08/11/rogers-cup-final-preview-and-pick-nadal-vs-raonic/
Thanks sana!!! Much appreciated!!!
I watched the match recorded an hour or two after actual time. I kept thinking the whole time that Nadal might still get nervous a bit, just at times, with Nole because even when Nole is not playing his best he is still so tough to beat. But look at the other side: Nole is losing whatever confidence he used to have in 2011 and the early months of 2012 that he was going to beat Rafa most of the time. Many people predicted back then that this would now forever be the case. In fact Nadal has won nearly every one of their matches for a long stretch now: that is an amazing achievement. Definitely now Nole is 95% out of Rafa’s head. That problem has been met and solved.
We also saw again that Rafa is working on this summer what next needs his deliberate problem solving and practice, including a more difficult to read and more difficult to return serve and a lot more aggression throughout most of the game. All in preparation no doubt for the USO.
As the tournament titles kept coming this spring we knew we might see a lot of greatness from Rafa this year. But now it is actually happening. Other than the first round exit at Wimbledon he has had an almost perfect year so far since coming back a month after the AO. And he has won his first hardcourt match against Novak since they last played on the surface at AO a year and a half ago. Should they meet at the USO Rafa will give Novak a hard time… it might be a pretty close and even match.
One more time, how often have we seen this strong and consistent comeback after a long injury delay by any pro tennis player, male or female?
Vamos Rafa, no matter what!
Knee notwithstanding… you have got to believe Rafa still has at least one Wimbledon and at least one hardcourt major in him, and maybe two Paris Open.
@chloro, if he can keep playing like this, winning 2-3 hard court slams would be conceivable… I am getting way too excited but if rafa wins USO 2013, he’l win Oz 2014 too thats my call.. I cannot say anything about the knee though …just confident he will be fine at USO
I hope that at the USO it would be Rafa Fed on one side and Nole-Muzza on the other. Rafa deserves a good draw at least once!!!!! And being on Fed’s side would ensure better scheduling, less grueling SF and meeting not more than one of Nole-Muzza!
abhirf,
I was not pleased to see you bring up Miami again. Well, Rafa has now turned it around. He beat Djoker in the tb! In fact, this victory is all the sweeter when we think back on the 2011 I/W and Miami losses to Djoker. I just feel like dancin’! Wasn’t there a song with that title by Leo Sayer in the 70’s?
I want to party now! WOW! WOW! Rafa isn’t even in his best form yet.
Rafa is a man on a mission! I also want him to play at Cincy. Get more match practice and more ranking points. He has to get back to #2 so that he won’t have to keep meeting Djoker in the finals. This was the real final!
Now Rafa has a quick turnaround for tomorrow! Please take down Raonic the cheater who got through playing mediocre tennis because his opponents couldn’t get the job done. I don’t care if the crowd will be cheering for Raonic. Rafa has the momentum now!
If Rafa wins USO 2013 and AO 2014, he would have a double career slam!!!!! I feel scared! Let us not look too far ahead. One match at a time.
Now go win that Montreal final! Vamos Rafa!!!!!
one match at a time, folks.
Someone on vb computed the rankings points and said that Rafa can become #2 if he wins both Montreal and Cincy and Murray doesn’t get past the semis. The scenario for taking over the #1 ranking seems pretty unlikely. I think that Djoker would have to not get past the semis at Cincy and the USO. I think Rafa would have to win both.
Rafa has never even reached the finals at Cincy. Many have been thinking that he will drop out of Cincy if he goes deep at Montreal. Well he’s in the final now. I wonder when he will make his decision. I want him to play at Cincy for the match practice and the rankings points. I do not see Rafa winning Cincy. So he will probably go into the USO ranked #3. I wish he could get to #2, so he won’t have to face Djoker until the final. But he lost a big chance when he crashed out early at Wimbledon.
I agree about not getting carried away. Rafa has to win Montreal first. One step at a time.
Wow! Did not expect to wake up to this result. Congrats to Rafa and his gr8 fans 🙂 Virtual hugs to Nole’s fans 🙁
And in other news, that well known doubles specialist, Mr Andrew Murray, gets to the final with the rather gorgeous, Mr Colin Fleming…
Go AndCol go!
Rafa’s opinion on the match: “I said yesterday the only chance to win against Novak, the only tactic is to play very well. To play very well, I have to play aggressive. If not, I cannot play very well on this kind of surface. And I did. I played a very high level tonight, I think. I played with the right decisions in the important moments. Yes, the serve worked well during the whole night. And the shots from the baseline, I tried to stay very close to the baseline, go inside when I had the chance.”
Rafa is satisfied with his performance. Me too. I like him playing aggressively. I become depressed when he is playing like he is warming up (not competing). Well done, Rafa!!!
Am still digesting this……………..
Thank you, Rafa, thank you.
ritb,
You made me laugh! I could not stop crying when Rafa won the match! I think part of it was just the release of nervous tension and the other part was the pride and emotion of seeing Rafa play so well and take it to Djoker. This was something else!
augustina,
Thanks for posting Rafa’s comments. I haven’t had a chance to see them. Rafa is always very honest about his game. He obviously prepared for this and had a game plan. His position at or near the baseline to return serve clearly affected Djoker. That’s part of the reason why he double faulted. I checked the stats on the atp website and Rafa had 7 aces! I think Djoker had 8, but 7 double faults for the match!
I also checked the serving stats. Rafa’s overall 1st serves in percentage was about 70 or 71% for the match. I think 1st serve points won was in the mid to high 60 percent. The one that stood out to me was the second serve stats. In the seven straight losses Rafa had to Djoker, he was always winning less on his second serve. But in this match, Rafa had more second serve points won overall than Djoker. That is a crucial stat.
The other thing I noticed is how well Rafa is hitting his cc backhand. Very flat and angled. That shot usually takes time to come back after Rafa has been out of action. His overall court positioning in this match was great. The espn commentators certainly noticed it! Brad Gilbert kept saying that this was the most aggressive he had ever seen Rafa play Djoker on hard courts!
It’s still sinking in for me. This has to be one of the more satisfying moments for Rafa.
deucy,
I didn’t realize that Andy was still in the doubles. That’s a good thing because he is getting some more match play. Good for him for getting to the finals!
Lol NNY in the circumstances you’re forgiven for not noticing!
But yay! Come on team AnCol!