The first week of the Golden Swing did nothing to help calm the fears of Rafael Nadal supporters. Nadal, who is still looking to emerge from the depths of a first-round Australian Open loss to Fernando Verdasco, got upset by Dominic Thiem the Buenos Aires semifinals. An equally impressive field will be on hand in Rio de Janeiro, where the fifth-ranked Spaniard is the top seed ahead of David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and John Isner.
Delray Beach, though, will more than hold its own in the competition for headlines between this upcoming week’s tournaments. That’s because it is hosting the long-awaited return of Juan Martin Del Potro, who has not played since last March in Miami because of a recurring wrist problem. A strong Marseille draw, meanwhile, features Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych.
Rio Open
Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Total financial commitment: $1,333,085
Points: 500
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: David Ferrer
Draw analysis: Well, there is some semblance of good news for Nadal: his Rio draw is a favorable one. Ferrer is obviously on the other side as the No. 2 seed, but so are Isner, Fabio Fognini, Juan Monaco, and Argentina Open champion Dominic Thiem. Nadal opened in Buenos Aires against one of his best friends (Monaco) and he will do the same this week with occasional doubles partner Pablo Carreno Busta on the other side of the net. With Nicolas Almagro undoubtedly fatigued following a runner-up performance in Buenos Aires, Nadal should have no trouble reaching at least the Rio semifinals. Even in the former world No. 1’s current state, nobody in the top half looks poised to seriously challenge him.
Given Thiem’s certain fatigue, Ferrer should also enjoy a relatively simple trek through the draw. The second-seeded Spaniard is likely to run into either Isner or Fognini in the semis. Isner is never fun to play, but Ferrer feasts on one-dimensional big servers and just recently thrashed the 6’10’’ American at the Australian Open. The Fognini that upset Nadal at this event last year is nowhere to be found right now.
First-round upset alert: Pablo Andujar over (5) Dominic Thiem. Thiem will surely get a Wednesday start, giving him two full days off in between the Buenos Aires final and the Rio de Janeiro first round. But he has to be gassed both mentally and physically, having contested three-setters in four of five matches last week–including in the semis against Nadal and in the title match against Almagro. Andujar is not in great form, but he is a solid clay-courter who reached the Rio semifinals in 2014 before losing to Nadal 12-10 in a third-set tiebreaker.
Hot: David Ferrer, Dominic Thiem, Nicolas Almagro, Paolo Lorenzi
Cold: Rafael Nadal, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Juan Monaco, Santiago Giraldo
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jack Sock over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, John Isner over Juan Monaco, and David Ferrer over Diego Schwartzman
Semifinals: Nadal over Sock and Ferrer over Isner
Final: Ferrer over Nadal
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Open 13
Where: Marseille, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Total financial commitment: 596,790 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Stan Wawrinka
Defending champion: Gilles Simon
Draw analysis: You will never find a much better field at a 250-point tournament on indoor hard courts in Europe. Leading the way with first-round byes are Wawrinka, Berdych, Richard Gasquet and Marin Cilic. Rounding out the seeded contingent are Gilles Simon, David Goffin, Benoit Paire, and Rotterdam finalist Gael Monfils. And the draw is not simply top-heavy; it is also extremely deep. That is evident in the fact that Feliciano Lopez and Nick Kyrgios are unseeded floaters. So, too, are Vasek Pospisil, Alexander Zverev, and Ernests Gulbis.
The bottom half is especially daunting. Berdych’s opening test could come against a red-hot Zverev, Gasquet may await Gulbis in the second round, Simon is on course to face either Kyrgios or Pospisil in the second round, and Goffin will kick off his week against up-and-comer Hyeon Chung. At the very top of the bracket, Wawrinka appears to be in line for a difficult opener against Lopez.
First-round upset alert: Simone Bolelli over (8) Benoit Paire. For one fleeting moment it looked like Paire would be able to build on his awesome second half of 2015. The Frenchman reached the Chennai semifinals in his 2016 debut before succumbing to Wawrinka. Since then, however, Paire has suffered straight-set losses to Lukas Rosol in the Auckland second round, Noah Rubin right away in Melbourne, Paul-Henri in his first match in Montpellier, and Ivan Dodig during round-one action in Rotterdam. At his rate, Paire can lose to anyone.
Hot: Stan Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Gael Monfils, Nicolas Mahut, Andrey Kuznetsov, Alexander Zverev
Cold: Marin Cilic, Benoit Paire, Ernests Gulbis, Vasek Pospisil
Semifinal predictions: Stan Wawrinka over Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych over Gilles Simon
Final: Wawrinka over Berdych
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Delray Beach Open
Where: Delray Beach, Florida
Surface: Hard
Total financial commitment: $514,065
Points: 250
Top seed: Kevin Anderson
Defending champion: Ivo Karlovic
Draw analysis: He’s back, baby. Del Potro has not played 11 months, but he is returning to a place where he is undefeated. In his only previous appearance in Delray Beach, the 2009 U.S. Open champion captured the title with five consecutive straight-set victories, none of which required even a single tiebreaker. Del Potro’s draw looks like it could be a good one. Up first for the 27-year-old Argentine is Denis Kudla, after which Ivo Karlovic could follow. Given Del Potro’s rust, a match against Karlovic that is sure to feature short points and just one or two crucial moments that decide the outcome would not be a bad thing. Other seeds in a relatively wide-open top half of the bracket are Kevin Anderson, Jeremy Chardy, and Donald Young. Young’s second contest would come against the winner of an all-American battle between Tim Smyczek and Memphis runner-up Taylor Fritz.
On paper, Bernard Tomic and Grigor Dimitrov are the class of the other side. There is no reason why they should be unable to set up a semifinal showdown, although you never know what you are going to get from Tomic on any given day. Challengers include Steve Johnson and Memphis semifinalist Ricardas Berankis.
First-round upset alert: John Millman over (6) Steve Johnson. At 26 years old, Millman has already almost doubled his previous ATP win total in the first one and a half months of this season alone. The Australian owned seven such victories prior to 2016 and already boasts six this year. Johnson caught fire last fall, but he has lost his opening match in three of four tournaments this season—including to Fritz in Memphis.
Hot: Taylor Fritz, Noah Rubin, Ricardas Berankis, John Millman, Illya Marchenko
Cold: Kevin Anderson, Steve Johnson, Adrian Mannarino, Matthew Ebden
Semifinal predictions: Sam Querrey over Jeremy Chardy and Bernard Tomic over Grigor Dimitrov
Final: Tomic over Querrey
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
who ya got?
Rio: Rafa, rusty in BA but unlikely to be beaten 2 weeks in a row.
Marseille: Berdych
DB: Dimitrov, class above the rest. (certainly not Tomic)
class above the rest??????????
Yepp. Class above. Well certainly a class above Bernard. I can guarantee that Tomic will not win it.
he has a very good chance
cant see Nadal beating Ferrer in this current state. He’ll win if Ferrer somehow loses before the final (unless its Isner).
I can’t see Nadal losing, it would be too damaging to him. He knows he must win this week and he will
nah, he cant get any lower than he is now. A Rio loss would confirm what we now know. We didn’t know it before Buenos Aires. Loss to Thiem would be worse than loss in Rio.
Well it is undoubtedly extremely important for him and I personally believe he will be the champion. We will see 🙂
oh I agree its very important
Some of us already knew.
Do you?
#Verdasco
Rio:
QF-
Rafa over Bellucci
Sock over Tsonga
Isner over Monaco
Ferrer over Thiem
SF-
Rafa over Sock
Ferrer over Isner
Final-
Rafa over Ferrer
Delray Beach:
QF-
Querrey over Fritz
Del Po over Chardy
Dimitrov over Mannarino
Tomic over Millman
SF-
Querrey over Del Po
Tomic over Dimitrov
Final-
Tomic over Querrey
I’m actually very confused about why I put Dimitrov over Tomic. I think that was a mistake. It could happen so I’ll keep it but he owns a 2-0 head to head edge and should be able to win that if he plays well. No telling what you’ll get from him though. I guess at the time I was making the picks I was thinking Tomic prevails in 3 or something. Anyways, it should be a good tournament. Can’t wait to see Del Po and Fritz in action.
Actually never mind it wasn’t a mistake. I was just thinking Tomic is safer pick as Dimitrov is less predictable while Tomic hasn’t really done poorly on hard courts in a while it seems. If both reach the semis, I may change my pick at that point, but Tomic has a chance at winning as well. I can see either winning, so yeah I guess at the time I made predictions I saw Tomic winning or just made a mistake. Either way if that happens I’ll be rooting for Grigor lol. And I don’t go back to change picks just because a lot of times I second guess myself lol so I’ll keep them like that for now. Either way I can’t wait for Delray Marseille and rio. And I have a winter break from school right now so I can watch it a lot this week.
I would go with Rafa winning the whole thing but he is becoming so predictable in losing his important matches that I just do not dare predicting his win…I somehow knew he would lose to the young Austrian because that’s the way Rafa is these days…any young player playing fairly good (nothing extraordinary!) tennis has a chance with THIS Rafa…
I hope Rafa wakes up…I also hope he stops comforting himself in the loss and starts being angry at himself and more confident instead…
THIS IS CLAY FOR GOD’S SAKE, RAFA!!!
P.S. again having problems with posting as my posts seems to disappear…hope this one goes through…
yup…can’t even have faith in him winning a 250/500 on clay.
This is what I want! For Rafa to just get mad! I remember when Rafa hated to lose! He wouldn’t feel sad or try to rationalize it. He would get angry and even more determined.
Since when did Rafa become okay with these kinds of losses? On clay, for heaven’s sake!
“Well, there is some semblance of good news for Nadal: his Rio draw is a favorable one.”
There are no favourable draws for halfa-Rafa.
PCB->Almagro->Dolgo/Syd->Tsonga/Delbonis->Fog/Isner/Thiem/Ferrer/Andujar is his projected draw.
Halfa-Rafa can lose to any of these guys ATM and it wouldn’t be a shock.
I won’t be picking any of his matches this week.
Meet the new Rafa,
Not the same as the old Rafa.
#Since2014
Is it just this week, or have you given up on Rafa completely?
Unless he makes a substantive change to his team and approach, there is no reason to expect much of a change in his results going forward.
Could happen, but I highly doubt it and I’ll keep my expectations very low.
From Rafa’s comments after a loss and inaction, despite his claims to the contrary, it sounds as if he’s given up on himself.
I am not making any picks for rafa’s matches in this tournament. I also believe that he can lose to anyone at this point.
I am not giving up on Rafa. I am merely facing a very sobering reality.
Marseille:
QF
Paire over Wawrinka
Monfils over Cilic
Simon over Gasquet
Goffin over Berdych
Basically picking the opposite of what I think would happen in each case.
SF
Monfils over Paire
Goffin over Simon
F
Monfils over Goffin
Rio de Janeiero
QF
Rafa over Dolgopolov
Tsonga over Sock
Fognini over Isner
Ferrer over Thiem
SF
Rafa over Tsonga
Ferrer over Fognini
F
If Rafa makes it this far would think he would win. But voted Ferrer.
Delray
QF
Anderson over Young
Chardy over Karlovic
Dimitrov over Mannarino
Tomic over Johnson
SF
Chardy over Anderson
Dimitrov over Tomic
F
Chardy over Dimitrov
*Would prefer to pick Delpo over Everybody but it’s too soon.
With the qualifiers through, here are my Marseille picks:
QF-
Stanimal over Mahut
Cilic over Monfils
Gasquet over Kyrgios
Berdych over Goffin
SF-
Stanimal over Cilic
Berdych over Gasquet
Final-
Stanimal over Berdych
Decided to skip over Stanimal and Berdych completely. Guessing these two are in Marseille for practice/appearance and have one foot in Dubai. Pulling for a favorite Frenchie wins Marseille. 😉
It’s raining in Rio:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbR-pmVUcAE5KFd.jpg
7 day weather forecast for Rio is looking gloomy:
https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/10day/l/BRXX0201:1:BR
I hope it pours.
Rafa is undefeated in the rain.
Vamos!
Rio Open: “We will wait until 8 PM (local tme) to make a decision on today’s schedule.” [Translated from Portuguese by Bing]
https://twitter.com/RioOpenOficial/status/699338547346722816
Rio and some fishes (Rio = river in Portuguese):
https://twitter.com/shonker81/status/699352800875118592
https://twitter.com/analuizaclube/status/699352730410864640
Isner is pathetic
Expected one
Truly is. He hit some of the worst shots under pressure in that breaker. What in gods name was that?? Isner needed that win to get his first clay win of the season. Instead he lost four breakers out of four so far this clay court swing. Should’ve stuck to American hard courts. If he doesn’t get it together on the slow stuff soon, he will drop in the ranks during the clay court season. He needs to do well in Houston considering he lost round one to Gabashvili last year. Needs to do even better at Masters events as he lost round of 16 at two and QF at one.
Huge opportunity for Del Po if Smith closes it out on Ivo.
More confident in del Po doing well here now that Ivo but the dust.
Vamos Delpo!
With Monfils out because of withdrawal, I think Kuznetsov makes QF and falls to Cilic.
Yep. Monfils and Simon out. There goes that. What I was trying to avoid was picking the obvious Wawrinka v Berdych final. I give up. Not sure if Gasquet is healthy enough. Going day by day for Marseille at this point.
Delray and RdJ picks are good.
Yeah same. Gasquet is a question mark.
nothing wrong with going with chalk. Unless Zverev beats Berdych, nobody else can.
True. Zverev has a chance but not that likely since he’s played so much lately. Also Gasquet has a shot in the semis if he’s healthy.
certainly no one will beat Stan before the final
Eh I dunno. I’m kinda worried about Stan’s first rounder. Chances are he’ll be rusty having not played since his loss to Raonic in Melbourne, and Stakhovsky has a 2-1 head to head advantage over Stan, and last time they played was last year here, and Stakhovsky won in 3. I’m still picking Stan to win in two tough sets, but I’m kind of worried about that one.
*second
Oh yeah lol because he got a bye as the top seed. Also I think head to head is actually 1-1. Still stakhovsky can be dangerous. I’m thinking Stan gets through but I’m a bit nervous for that one. C’mon Stanimal!!
Hard to tell. I think rusty Stan but Stanimal could come roaring out. Looking forward to it.
yep
lol…if there’s anything I understand it is talking to myself about tennis!
Not sure if I’m on the right thread. See WaWa just lost the first set to Paire. Unlike Paire to keep his level up like this for consecutive matches Is Stan going flat out. Please do tell!!
I’m watching, ed.
Paire was uncharacteristically solid and great the first set. And that’s the Benoit I like to think about. Stan came out guns blazing – perhaps knowing that Paire won’t fight – sure enough, seems to be working. Paire’s lack of fight is frustrating to me. He’s another one, so talented, but seems too easily subdued.
Stan not going flat out but shifted into a high enough gear to discourage Benoit. Kyrgios playing like today would beat this Stan.
Yep. I would say that wasn’t Stanimal. It didn’t need to be. Halfa-Wawa is enough to win the 2nd set 6-1. Benoit Paire was horrible – in contrast to BP 1st set. From the light into the darkness.
Then 3rd set. Not looking good for Paire.
LOL HafaWawa.
#MirkasRight
But a strong hold from BP! There’s hope.
We have a match. Benny Paire broke hafawawa and if he keeps his cool – BP, that is – he just might hold for 3-0 in the decider…yes, no, a stinker of a drop shot trying to be too cute. Ah good grief.
a miracle…BP holds. sigh…