Rio de Janeiro, Marseille, and Delray Beach previews and predictions

The first week of the Golden Swing did nothing to help calm the fears of Rafael Nadal supporters. Nadal, who is still looking to emerge from the depths of a first-round Australian Open loss to Fernando Verdasco, got upset by Dominic Thiem the Buenos Aires semifinals. An equally impressive field will be on hand in Rio de Janeiro, where the fifth-ranked Spaniard is the top seed ahead of David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and John Isner.

Delray Beach, though, will more than hold its own in the competition for headlines between this upcoming week’s tournaments. That’s because it is hosting the long-awaited return of Juan Martin Del Potro, who has not played since last March in Miami because of a recurring wrist problem. A strong Marseille draw, meanwhile, features Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych.

Rio Open

Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Total financial commitment: $1,333,085
Points: 500

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: David Ferrer

Draw analysis: Well, there is some semblance of good news for Nadal: his Rio draw is a favorable one. Ferrer is obviously on the other side as the No. 2 seed, but so are Isner, Fabio Fognini, Juan Monaco, and Argentina Open champion Dominic Thiem. Nadal opened in Buenos Aires against one of his best friends (Monaco) and he will do the same this week with occasional doubles partner Pablo Carreno Busta on the other side of the net. With Nicolas Almagro undoubtedly fatigued following a runner-up performance in Buenos Aires, Nadal should have no trouble reaching at least the Rio semifinals. Even in the former world No. 1’s current state, nobody in the top half looks poised to seriously challenge him.

Given Thiem’s certain fatigue, Ferrer should also enjoy a relatively simple trek through the draw. The second-seeded Spaniard is likely to run into either Isner or Fognini in the semis. Isner is never fun to play, but Ferrer feasts on one-dimensional big servers and just recently thrashed the 6’10’’ American at the Australian Open. The Fognini that upset Nadal at this event last year is nowhere to be found right now.

First-round upset alert: Pablo Andujar over (5) Dominic Thiem. Thiem will surely get a Wednesday start, giving him two full days off in between the Buenos Aires final and the Rio de Janeiro first round. But he has to be gassed both mentally and physically, having contested three-setters in four of five matches last week–including in the semis against Nadal and in the title match against Almagro. Andujar is not in great form, but he is a solid clay-courter who reached the Rio semifinals in 2014 before losing to Nadal 12-10 in a third-set tiebreaker.

Hot: David Ferrer, Dominic Thiem, Nicolas Almagro, Paolo Lorenzi

Cold: Rafael Nadal, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Juan Monaco, Santiago Giraldo

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jack Sock over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, John Isner over Juan Monaco, and David Ferrer over Diego Schwartzman

Semifinals: Nadal over Sock and Ferrer over Isner

Final: Ferrer over Nadal

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Open 13

Where: Marseille, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Total financial commitment: 596,790 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Stan Wawrinka
Defending champion: Gilles Simon

Draw analysis: You will never find a much better field at a 250-point tournament on indoor hard courts in Europe. Leading the way with first-round byes are Wawrinka, Berdych, Richard Gasquet and Marin Cilic. Rounding out the seeded contingent are Gilles Simon, David Goffin, Benoit Paire, and Rotterdam finalist Gael Monfils. And the draw is not simply top-heavy; it is also extremely deep. That is evident in the fact that Feliciano Lopez and Nick Kyrgios are unseeded floaters. So, too, are Vasek Pospisil, Alexander Zverev, and Ernests Gulbis.

The bottom half is especially daunting. Berdych’s opening test could come against a red-hot Zverev, Gasquet may await Gulbis in the second round, Simon is on course to face either Kyrgios or Pospisil in the second round, and Goffin will kick off his week against up-and-comer Hyeon Chung. At the very top of the bracket, Wawrinka appears to be in line for a difficult opener against Lopez.

First-round upset alert: Simone Bolelli over (8) Benoit Paire. For one fleeting moment it looked like Paire would be able to build on his awesome second half of 2015. The Frenchman reached the Chennai semifinals in his 2016 debut before succumbing to Wawrinka. Since then, however, Paire has suffered straight-set losses to Lukas Rosol in the Auckland second round, Noah Rubin right away in Melbourne, Paul-Henri in his first match in Montpellier, and Ivan Dodig during round-one action in Rotterdam. At his rate, Paire can lose to anyone.

Hot: Stan Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Gael Monfils, Nicolas Mahut, Andrey Kuznetsov, Alexander Zverev

Cold: Marin Cilic, Benoit Paire, Ernests Gulbis, Vasek Pospisil

Semifinal predictions: Stan Wawrinka over Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych over Gilles Simon

Final: Wawrinka over Berdych

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Delray Beach Open

Where: Delray Beach, Florida
Surface: Hard
Total financial commitment: $514,065
Points: 250

Top seed: Kevin Anderson
Defending champion: Ivo Karlovic

Draw analysis: He’s back, baby. Del Potro has not played 11 months, but he is returning to a place where he is undefeated. In his only previous appearance in Delray Beach, the 2009 U.S. Open champion captured the title with five consecutive straight-set victories, none of which required even a single tiebreaker. Del Potro’s draw looks like it could be a good one. Up first for the 27-year-old Argentine is Denis Kudla, after which Ivo Karlovic could follow. Given Del Potro’s rust, a match against Karlovic that is sure to feature short points and just one or two crucial moments that decide the outcome would not be a bad thing. Other seeds in a relatively wide-open top half of the bracket are Kevin Anderson, Jeremy Chardy, and Donald Young. Young’s second contest would come against the winner of an all-American battle between Tim Smyczek and Memphis runner-up Taylor Fritz.

On paper, Bernard Tomic and Grigor Dimitrov are the class of the other side. There is no reason why they should be unable to set up a semifinal showdown, although you never know what you are going to get from Tomic on any given day. Challengers include Steve Johnson and Memphis semifinalist Ricardas Berankis.

First-round upset alert: John Millman over (6) Steve Johnson. At 26 years old, Millman has already almost doubled his previous ATP win total in the first one and a half months of this season alone. The Australian owned seven such victories prior to 2016 and already boasts six this year. Johnson caught fire last fall, but he has lost his opening match in three of four tournaments this season—including to Fritz in Memphis.

Hot: Taylor Fritz, Noah Rubin, Ricardas Berankis, John Millman, Illya Marchenko

Cold: Kevin Anderson, Steve Johnson, Adrian Mannarino, Matthew Ebden

Semifinal predictions: Sam Querrey over Jeremy Chardy and Bernard Tomic over Grigor Dimitrov

Final: Tomic over Querrey

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!