This is a rare occasion in which the elite eight-man field at the World Tour Finals is already set a stone before the Paris Masters even begins. As such, the upcoming week can be all about this tournament, itself. All eight year-end championship participants can go after a coveted Masters 1000 title with no qualification worries of any kind. Only a few players hovering inside and outside the top 10 may have an alternate spot in London on their minds at the second to last event of the season.
BNP Paribas Masters
Where: Paris, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: 3,288,530 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: Based on the field of 48, the final tournament of the proverbial regular season should not disappoint. The top 13 players in the world (No. 14 Milos Raonic is out) and 28 of the top 29 are in the draw.
It is a dangerous one for just about everyone involved, although two-time defending champion Novak Djokovic—as if he even need it—may have the friendliest path. He will open against either Thomaz Bellucci or lucky loser Teymuraz Gabashvili and would then face one of three Frenchmen—Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, and Benoit Paire. Tomas Berdych and 2008 champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are also part of the top quarter.
Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are on a collision course for the semifinals, but the Spaniard is coming off a long week in Basel and is a mere 12-4 lifetime in Paris with no titles. Nadal’s first match could come against familiar foe Lukas Rosol, whom he outlasted in a third-set tiebreaker during first-round Basel action. Other big hitters in the section include Stan Wawrinka, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, and a red-hot Jack Sock.
Like Nadal, Federer is making a quick turnaround. The 34-year-old Swiss captured his seventh Basel title on Sunday by holding off his nemesis 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 after two hours and two minutes. Federer could be ripe for an upset if he loses a bit of interest in between Basel and the World Tour Finals, but can anyone capitalize? Nearest seed John Isner is once again underwhelming on European hard courts at the end of a long season. If Federer loses prior to the semifinals, it will likely come against Marin Cilic in the last eight. In order to get there, however, Cilic would likely have to survive Grigor Dimitrov and David Ferrer.
At the bottom of the bracket, a preview of the upcoming Davis Cup final could take place in the third round. Great Britain’s Andy Murray and Belgium’s David Goffin need just one win apiece in Paris before they would face each other. The 2015 Davis Cup could be decided by a potential Murray-Goffin showdown on the last day of the season. Either Kei Nishikori or an in-form Richard Gasquet could oppose Murray in the quarterfinals.
First-round upset alerts: Bernard Tomic over (4) Stan Wawrinka: Tomic is 1-0 in the head-to-head series. Although his win came more than four years ago, he could do it again. Tomic’s tournaments of late have been either an immediate loss or an extended run, so the Aussie may go places if he can start with a victory over Fabio Fognini. Wawrinka, meanwhile, lost right away in Basel to Ivo Karlovic.
Ivo Karlovic over (5) Tomas Berdych: Karlovic is wrapping up an outstanding season and coming off a quarterfinal run in Basel. He is also a surprising 5-3 lifetime in the head-to-head series against Berdych, who is dominating 250-point events these days but has been slumping just about everywhere else. But if this one goes the distance, Karlovic could be in trouble. He is a shocking 0-9 in final-set tiebreakers this season.
Dominic Thiem over (11) Kevin Anderson: They played a stellar third-round match at the U.S. Open that shamefully ended in premature straight sets, with Anderson winning in a trio of tiebreakers. Thiem is not exactly on fire, but he is playing well enough to take advantage of an opponent who is dealing with a shoulder issue.
Hot: Novak Djokvic, David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Benoit Paire, Roberto Bautista Agut, Ivo Karlovic, Jack Sock, Lucas Pouille
Cold: Gael Monfils, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Adrian Mannarino, Viktor Troicki, Grigor Dimitrov, Andreas Seppi, Fernando Verdasco
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Dominic Thiem over Bernard Tomic, Roger Federer over David Ferrer, and Richard Gasquet over Andy Murray
Semifinals: Djokovic over Thiem and Federer over Gasquet
Final: Djokovic over Federer
[polldaddy poll=9156114]
My picks for Paris:
QF-
Djokovic over Tsonga
Nadal over Wawrinka
Federer over Ferrer
Murray over Gasquet
SF-
Djokovic over Nadal
Federer over Murray
Final-
Federer over Djokovic
(Btw interesting choice of Thiem making quarters then semis. Would u have him beating Rafa to make quarters or Rosol?)
certainly not Rosol!
I think this Rosol landing in Rafa’s first round routine is getting tired if not a lot suspicious.
Do you???
certainly…
who you got?
The only ones that should be ahead of Rafa on your hot list are Djokovic and Ferrer.
Rafa is 12-3 with 960 points earned since the USO.
#WheresRafa?
Reblogged this on Tennis Abides.
OOP for Tuesday:
http://www.protennislive.com/posting/2015/352/op.pdf
gasquet beating andy murray??!! i’ll believe that when i see it..
Well you should have seen it 3 times so far as their h2h is 6:3 to Murray and they usually play very close matches.
hahahaha, yeah, no.
gasket is a mental minion that cracks under pressure.
^This.
amy,
I agree with you. Murray is playing well enough right now to beat Gasquet, even though he has been looking good.
@ Ricky,
So Rafa suddenly disappeared from your list…I kept looking for his name but…I assume you have him losing to your favorite ‘soon to be GS winner’ Thiem…no way…I don’t see it happening before meeting Nole unless Rafa is injured…
what list?
the ‘quarterfinal predictions list’…I was hoping to see Rafa in there.. that’s all…
He should be on the hot list with the third most points and third best record behind Nole and Ferru but whatevs.
do you think there is a case for a third ‘lukewarm’ category ricky??!
would fit quite a lot of players….
didn’t rafa beat one of your ‘hot’ players ie cilic…?
Rafa beat 3 of Ricky’s 4 hot players in Basel and didn’t play Sock. 🙂
“Hot: Stan Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Jack Sock”
Sorry he didn’t play Stn either but Stan didn’t even get past the 1st round.
He means hot like as in playing well for their standards. I’m pretty sure Rafa isn’t playing near or at his best. Maybe kinda near. Yeah Cilic may be questionable to be in that category but he is playing solid consistent tennis besides he really blew it against Rafa anyways?
correct
amy,
I like that! Yes! A lukewarm category.
OOP for Wednesday:
http://www.protennislive.com/posting/2015/352/op.pdf
I see Dimitrov got the better of Cilic in straight sets, both in tiebreaks. I’ve been saying for weeks Cilic has not looked particularly impressive in any of the matches I have watched.
Like so often, this Masters is a parade of the walking wounded and knackered players plus a bunch of disinterested players whose berth at the O2 is already confirmed. The only ones with a vested interest are those still hoping to sneak in at the last moment – this year there is not even that to keep interest high – or if they have a particular interest in protecting their ranking.
The best thing that can be said is the rest of the field get the chance of making some waves while the top guy’s attention is focused elsewhere.
I think the top guy will be very focussed this week.
Murray sure looks strong out there…great tennis so far from the British Hero…it’s not that the kid is not trying but Andy is playing really well…
Coric is NOT playing well
Murray is blowing Coric off the court.
Coric is spraying errors to Normandy
LOL! Spraying errors to Normandy! Nice turn of a phrase!
@ Ricky, 3:01
it’s because Andy doesn’t let him play his game…
amazing how Andy steps into the court on Coric’s second serve…he immediately takes control of the point and there is nothing the kid can do from then on…
I absolutely think that Rafa is getting at least to the quarters and probably the semis here. He’s playing so much better now. Also, the slower court will help. Thiem isn’t beating Rafa here.
Eh I don’t know about that. Thiem is looking really good right now and absolutely pulverizing his groundies. Rafa isn’t a lock nor is he an overwhelming favorite imo. Besides think of what thiem could do to Rafas serve if he is competing on Anderson serve and has even just broken.
NNY. Why are you so certain Thiem will beat Anderson? they are heading to a 1st set shoot out. Anderson is raining down aces although Thiem is handling the ROS amazingly well the rest of the time.
Blow me Thiem has won the TB.
ed,
I said that Thiem isn’t beating Rafa!
And now he’s broken Anderson. This is getting interesting.
Thiem holds serve. 3:0
Anderson is unravelling and Thiem going from strength to strength. Thiem had another BP but Anderson rallied to hold his serve.
Thiem 5:2 Anderson serving to stay in the match.
just a great call by me