Paris Masters preview and predictions

This is a rare occasion in which the elite eight-man field at the World Tour Finals is already set a stone before the Paris Masters even begins. As such, the upcoming week can be all about this tournament, itself. All eight year-end championship participants can go after a coveted Masters 1000 title with no qualification worries of any kind. Only a few players hovering inside and outside the top 10 may have an alternate spot in London on their minds at the second to last event of the season.

BNP Paribas Masters

Where: Paris, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: 3,288,530 Euros

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: Based on the field of 48, the final tournament of the proverbial regular season should not disappoint.  The top 13 players in the world (No. 14 Milos Raonic is out) and 28 of the top 29 are in the draw.

It is a dangerous one for just about everyone involved, although two-time defending champion Novak Djokovic—as if he even need it—may have the friendliest path. He will open against either Thomaz Bellucci or lucky loser Teymuraz Gabashvili and would then face one of three Frenchmen—Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, and Benoit Paire. Tomas Berdych and 2008 champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are also part of the top quarter.

Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are on a collision course for the semifinals, but the Spaniard is coming off a long week in Basel and is a mere 12-4 lifetime in Paris with no titles. Nadal’s first match could come against familiar foe Lukas Rosol, whom he outlasted in a third-set tiebreaker during first-round Basel action. Other big hitters in the section include Stan Wawrinka, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, and a red-hot Jack Sock.

Like Nadal, Federer is making a quick turnaround. The 34-year-old Swiss captured his seventh Basel title on Sunday by holding off his nemesis 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 after two hours and two minutes. Federer could be ripe for an upset if he loses a bit of interest in between Basel and the World Tour Finals, but can anyone capitalize? Nearest seed John Isner is once again underwhelming on European hard courts at the end of a long season. If Federer loses prior to the semifinals, it will likely come against Marin Cilic in the last eight. In order to get there, however, Cilic would likely have to survive Grigor Dimitrov and David Ferrer.

At the bottom of the bracket, a preview of the upcoming Davis Cup final could take place in the third round. Great Britain’s Andy Murray and Belgium’s David Goffin need just one win apiece in Paris before they would face each other. The 2015 Davis Cup could be decided by a potential Murray-Goffin showdown on the last day of the season. Either Kei Nishikori or an in-form Richard Gasquet could oppose Murray in the quarterfinals.

First-round upset alerts: Bernard Tomic over (4) Stan Wawrinka: Tomic is 1-0 in the head-to-head series. Although his win came more than four years ago, he could do it again. Tomic’s tournaments of late have been either an immediate loss or an extended run, so the Aussie may go places if he can start with a victory over Fabio Fognini. Wawrinka, meanwhile, lost right away in Basel to Ivo Karlovic.

Ivo Karlovic over (5) Tomas Berdych: Karlovic is wrapping up an outstanding season and coming off a quarterfinal run in Basel. He is also a surprising 5-3 lifetime in the head-to-head series against Berdych, who is dominating 250-point events these days but has been slumping just about everywhere else. But if this one goes the distance, Karlovic could be in trouble. He is a shocking 0-9 in final-set tiebreakers this season.

Dominic Thiem over (11) Kevin Anderson: They played a stellar third-round match at the U.S. Open that shamefully ended in premature straight sets, with Anderson winning in a trio of tiebreakers. Thiem is not exactly on fire, but he is playing well enough to take advantage of an opponent who is dealing with a shoulder issue.

Hot: Novak Djokvic, David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Benoit Paire, Roberto Bautista Agut, Ivo Karlovic, Jack Sock, Lucas Pouille

Cold: Gael Monfils, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Adrian Mannarino, Viktor Troicki, Grigor Dimitrov, Andreas Seppi, Fernando Verdasco

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Dominic Thiem over Bernard Tomic, Roger Federer over David Ferrer, and Richard Gasquet over Andy Murray

Semifinals: Djokovic over Thiem and Federer over Gasquet

Final: Djokovic over Federer

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