Casper Ruud, winner of the Green Group, and Red Group runner up Andrey Rublev will meet in Saturday’s second semifinal at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin.
U.S. Open finalist Casper Ruud continues to add to his hard court CV with a second consecutive trip to the Nitto ATP Finals semis. The Norwegian posted wins over Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime to earn his spot in the last four. The world No. 4 lost a throw-away match to the already eliminated Rafael Nadal in his third round-robin rubber, but he had already clinched the top spot in the Green Group with his previous victories.
Andrey Rublev had a slightly more complicated path to the semis. He got shellacked by Novak Djokovic in his middle round-robin match, but the Russian scored thrilling defeats over Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas to snag the Red Group runner-up spot. Rublev endured some tough losses in 2022, including a heartbreaker against Frances Tiafoe in the quarters of the U.S. Open, but he has rebounded nicely in Turin.
Rublev owns a 4-1 head-to-head edge in the head-to-head series, but unfortunately for him Ruud’s only win not only came at their most recent meeting but it was also at this same event on this same court a year ago. The Norwegian was a surprise semifinalist in 2021, but he has proven his hard court mettle over the past year. While the matchup has historically favored Rublev, Ruud is the more consistent player and is in better form in Turin.
Cheryl pick: Ruud in 3
Ricky pick: Ruud in 3
TBF Djokovic is the clear AO favourite but no doubt a difficult draw can knock him out. There are a lot of players now that can give him tough matches round 4 onwards and one thing we saw is that his recovery power is slightly waning now.
Alcaraz badly needs to develop consistent pattern of plays. Rafa was the master of this even at 19 and I think Djokovic is also great at this. Alcaraz can be a bit too spontaneous even on his own service games. He needs more defined pattern of plays and definitely a more consistent serve.
I am impressed with Novak’s improvements to his backhand slice and volleys. The guy’s a perfectionist and he keeps getting better. Rafa lost his momentum in Wimbledon but I thought his game prior to that was right up there.
Anything can happen at the AO. It is Novak vs the field but the chances of him losing are certainly higher in my opinion.
Ps. I am glad he is playing the AO!
I don’t really see Novak losing unless he is hampered physically. The same issues of recovery of course apply to Rafa. Whenever it is super humid I get extremely nervous for Rafa now as the humidity seems to destroy him physically. The worst match I can remember watching was the one against Zverev at RG.
Novak was brilliant in the second set against Ruud and looked like he did in 2011 which is ominous. He was sub par in the Paris masters final though squandering endless chances in very uncharacteristic fashion.
Chances of his winning AO are extremely high and I definitely take him over the field.
‘Chances of his winning AO are extremely high and I definitely take him over the field’
Thats not rocket science and not restricted to the AO, its Novak Djokovic after all. What I would question is why this prediction of whoever played superbly to win YEC is the favourite to win AO. Theres a huge difference between the two tournaments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPivXOq3Usc
Great quality match. I know it’s an exho but it was great to see rafa hitting the ball like that again. Bonus forehand at 7 min 50 secs 😉
VR,
Thanks for posting the highlights of this match. Great to see Rafa looking good! Oh that forehand ai 7 minutes 50 seconds! Wow!
I haven’t seen much of Rafa because the matches from Turin were not televised in the states. I think they did show Rafa’s third match where he got his only win. But I missed it because I didn’t know it would be on and it was too early. So it was nice to see him playing and looking good.
Sitting back and relaxing ahead of the most important day in my schedule, St Nicholas day, going through some numbers and records:
Rafa 92 titles = 94 000 points
Novak 91 titles = 99 250 points
big titles – Rafa 59
Novak 65
year-end No. 1 – Rafa 5
Novak 7
weeks at No. 1 – Rafa 209
Novak 373
top 10 wins – Rafa 185
Novak 240
…and the list goes on and on….of course it’s 22>21 in GS, but look at the bigger picture, that’s about the only record Rafa has on Novak…. 2 000 points?