Nitto ATP Finals SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Fritz

In his debut appearance at the Nitto ATP Finals, Taylor Fritz has played his way out of round-robin competition and into the semis.

His reward is a date with none other than five-time champion Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic and Fritz will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers on Saturday when they battle for a spot in the championship match. The head-to-head series is as lopsided as their lifetime achievements at the year-end championship (whereas Fritz is a rookie, Djokovic is a five-time champion). All five of their previous encounters have gone the Serb’s way, including four in straight sets. Their only competitive contest was a memorable one at the 2021 Australian Open, where Djokovic was less than 100 percent during their third-round showdown but persevered to a 7-6(1), 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 6-2 victory on his eventual way to the title.

Can Fritz keep it close once more when he gets a sixth shot at the 21-time Grand Slam champion? The very quick conditions inside Turin’s Pala Alpitour are such that it’s possible. Fritz compiled a 2-1 round-robin record with wins over Rafael Nadal and Felix Auger-Aliassime, losing only to Casper Ruud in a third-set tiebreaker. The ninth-ranked American did not face a single break point against either Nadal or Auger-Aliassime and he was broken just once by Ruud.

“It goes without saying that I have to serve really well,” Fritz assured. “Lucky for me I have been feeling like the serve has been strong. I have to return well and when I get my opportunities I have to take them. I can’t waste opportunities against someone like Novak.”

Opportunities have been few and far between for anyone when Djokovic is on the other side of the net. The 35-year-old has already won two titles this fall and he clinched the top spot in the Red Group by beating both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev in straight sets. Djokovic faced only one break point in those two matches combined–and saved it.

With the way Fritz is serving, this could be somewhat interesting from start to finish. However, Djokovic is looking extremely motivated and his tennis at the moment is borderline flawless. Look for another straight-set victory.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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27 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Fritz

  1. Too early to call. Djokovic will want to go undefeated to rack up the ranking points and Medevedev is now hitting his stride. This could take a lot out of him with fatigue becoming a factor in the semi.

    • Med hitting his stride? Literally winless in the tournament. What stride? Novak might take it easy because it’s a pointless match.

  2. That’s the beauty of how this event is structured; it incentivizes the players to bring their best effort for every match. There’s not really a dead rubber in this event.

  3. If Djokovic goes undefeated he moves do number 5 and Medvedev could drop to 6 or 7, so there’s a lot more at stake here than many realise. Not to mention, the extra $2.5M you receive for going undefeated. $400k USD for winning a round robin match is nothing to sneeze at either

    • That is right, amy. I am not happy about how long and hard Novak fought today. The match was exciting with Meddy showing up, but I like how Novak and Medvedev are with each other on the court; they have amiable chemistry.

      Novak had to expend a lot of energy to get that win. The Novak/Fitz match will be intolerable with the sound on, especially if darling Fritz wins.

      • ” darling Fritz! ” do you mean because of the American commentators? Fritz is certainly not my darling. In fact he is really not my cup of tea at all with his insta girlfriend.
        I still think Novak will.win but it may be a slog.
        It’s true that Novak and Med are buddies. Med is very amiable with Rafa as well. For some reason he struggles more against Rafa I think partly because of Rafa’s fhdtl and Rafa’s exceptional transition game. Not that Novaks isn’t very good but Rafa is a more instinctive volleyer.

        • Fritz has never been my cuppa but for no good reasons that I know of, ok, he’s a big serve plus a big forehand and inclined to trip over his own feet when he has to move. So NOT a player that revs my juices. Dunno about “insta girlfriend”. I do know he married young and they had a baby. I’m told he’s a hard worker – that’s from Paul Annacone who does some coaching with him. If you know of dirt about him please dish it. I’d love to have actual reasons to dislike him. πŸ™‚

          • Sorry Ramara it’s just my instinctive reaction! I didn’t know they are married, that makes her a bit more palatable. I just read that she posts endlessly on Instagram about their lavish lifestyle emphasising all the material benefits and kind of going on about money. That’s a massive turn off for me and she also looks very materialistic.
            Fritz is an American type ( as is his partner) who Europeans tend not to like. ( sorry If that sounds snobbish!)If they are married I like her more though. Before I thought she was just in it for the Β£ and the insta snap shots.

          • Thanks for the info, Amy! Always nice to have ammo for my tennis likes and dislikes. I did decide a long time ago not to worry about my tennis-related prejudices. Not like I post about them endlessly online like those awful Djoker fans who can find nothing better to do than read posts about Rafa and post insults.

            Btw I got a “like” from Pavvy G of all people for my somewhat acerbic description of the ATP finals. Yuck!

        • You know me well, amy. I agree with all of the points you make above.
          πŸ˜€

          But I will skip the first match tomorrow. Maybe the second one, too, since I doubt Rublev will beat Tsitsipas.

          I’m partial to the three Russian players that have been around for a while: Rublev, Khachanov, and Medvedev. The ATP has an abundance of younger talent, but Rafa and Novak are not yet done.

          • You aren’t going to watch tomorrow Elizabeth!!?
            I just looked up annoying Morgan as I didn’t remember she was married to Fritz and Ramara mis-remembered, Fritz was married and had a child with his ex wife. Morgan is just as awful and repellent as I remembered when I read about her. Fritz better not get sick and lose his money or she would dump him in a heartbeat!
            I like the 3 Russian players.
            Am intending to watch Novak tomorrow and I won’t be cheering for Fritz!
            I definitely think Tsitsi will win tonight and I expect it to be a Novak Tsitsi final.

          • When I decide what player I like or not, I generally look at their game or on court behaviour.Hardly ever their personal life unless its something dramatic.

  4. Not much separating these 2 but you’d have to think Fritz is a strong chance given Djokovic was struggling to finish against Medvedev. Bookies will gladly lay the 1.23 for Djokovic.

    Fritz in 3

  5. Fritz needs to play smarter. He got the break by giving Djokovic slow balls and then starts trying to hit him off the court again with low margin. Djokovic doesn’t like generating his own pace.

  6. Fritz just needs to keep the 3/4 pace ball in play and this match is his. The worst thing he can do is try and hit Djokovic off the court.

      • Hi Elizabeth,
        I watched it on and off. It was very uncharacteristic of Novak to break to love in the first set and then play a sloppy game and lose serve on a single break point. He would have won much quicker otherwise.
        He clearly was feeling after effects of the Med match.
        His children are adorable. I love that Stefan is a Rafa fan and trolls Novak by imitating Rafa’s fh!

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