Casper Ruud, winner of the Green Group, and Red Group runner up Andrey Rublev will meet in Saturday’s second semifinal at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin.
U.S. Open finalist Casper Ruud continues to add to his hard court CV with a second consecutive trip to the Nitto ATP Finals semis. The Norwegian posted wins over Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime to earn his spot in the last four. The world No. 4 lost a throw-away match to the already eliminated Rafael Nadal in his third round-robin rubber, but he had already clinched the top spot in the Green Group with his previous victories.
Andrey Rublev had a slightly more complicated path to the semis. He got shellacked by Novak Djokovic in his middle round-robin match, but the Russian scored thrilling defeats over Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas to snag the Red Group runner-up spot. Rublev endured some tough losses in 2022, including a heartbreaker against Frances Tiafoe in the quarters of the U.S. Open, but he has rebounded nicely in Turin.
Rublev owns a 4-1 head-to-head edge in the head-to-head series, but unfortunately for him Ruud’s only win not only came at their most recent meeting but it was also at this same event on this same court a year ago. The Norwegian was a surprise semifinalist in 2021, but he has proven his hard court mettle over the past year. While the matchup has historically favored Rublev, Ruud is the more consistent player and is in better form in Turin.
Cheryl pick: Ruud in 3
Ricky pick: Ruud in 3
Nothing separating these 2 either.
I give the slight edge to Ruud due to consistency and the extra days rest. A fatigued Tsitsipas probably isnt the strongest form-line either.
Ruud in 3
WWW?
Should be a thriller….Rublev in 3.
Both are great guys. It is too bad only one is going to win.
Ruud gets the first break. Ruud has had a better year. (I think)
Gosh this is horrible from Rublev. His bh is hopeless and he is overhitting his fh.
Just awful to watch.
Hello, Amy,
Rublev can be horrible to watch, and I stopped watching quite early in the match yesterday. Tsitsipas can be awful to watch, and the list is long for the cringeworthy!
Casper Ruud is reliably a well-mannered, humble, and calm competitor. He fits the model of an all-time great, but that remains to be seen. I wish him all the best.
I know you like Rublev Elizabeth but really honestly it was embarrassing to watch yesterday.
People paid a lot of money for tickets and he just imploded.
I have a hard time working out why he and his coach can’t fix his weak second serve and give him some kind of transition game. He looks horribly one dimensional at times.
Yes, amy, his on-court tantrums are embarrassing! You are an astute observer of what tennis players need to fix, and I agree with what you observe about Andrey and Casper. (thank you for your post below)
I’m not as astute as you at detecting the weaknesses of ATP players. IMO, Andrey was better, swear to God, before the 2021 Monte Carlo Final loss to Tsitsipas. I could see how crushed Andrey was and wondered if he would recover some of the ground he lost after that loss at Monte Carlo. He played without getting down on himself and was strong off of both wings. He has said he is a king of the 500 jokingly, but I know it pains him that he can’t win a 1000 event. In particular, it seems important that the 1000 win is on clay.
This may not be the case now, about the 1000 win on clay. I think any 1000 would do, but he needs to improve the points you cite if he is to win a 1000, especially against Tsitsipas, who has improved over the past two years.
Maybe the improvements in 2nd serve, backhand, and transition game would come if he regains the confidence I noticed in him two years ago. I still cheer him on and have become uncomfortably numb to his on-court tirades, and it’s all self-deprecating.
I have investigated his behavior with his girlfriend of five years; he is in love and intends to marry her. (As soon as he wins a 1000 event…kidding; I don’t know if he is waiting for that event!)
I didn’t know his loss to Tsitsi at Monte Carlo was such a blow and so psychologically pivotal in his development Elizabeth.
It’s true that individual matches can alter the course of a career in extraordinary ways. I just don’t quite understand why he can’t kick on adding nuance and texture to his game. Tsitsi has just added the slice. Although Tsitsi has gone backwards the last 18 months and seems like a head case. They both do. Med also now!
If they are not careful they, along with Zverev, will miss out on the slams to younger players.
I can’t see Rublev winning a masters as things stand let alone a slam.
If he improved his game at the technical level it would definitely help him not to fall apart as he would have options to go to.
Maybe he should train at Rafa’s academy?!😀😀 it’s really helped Casper who has all the humility and diligence needed to progress. The problem with Casper is that he perhaps has too much humility!
Y does Rublev keep yelling and shouting? Ruud is just feeding off his negative energy.
I sort of thought this would happen when Tsitsi lost. Tsitsi is a much better player than Rublev when he plays at the top of his game
Rublev was simply a beneficiary of circumstance. Against Djokovic he had his tail between his legs but he knew Tsitsipas was tired after 2 tough matches against Djokovic and Medvedev.
Tsitsipas doesn’t carry a lot of weight, so not sure there’s much he could do about it. But neither does Djokovic but Djokovic has the most efficient game in tennis and mostly feeds off the pace his opponent generates.
90% of a Djokovic victory is his opponent beating themselves. He gets you to take more risk than he’s taking and the other 10% is him winning the points when he senses he’s in control.
Yes, quite simple, indeed.
I wonder why isn’t everyone else doing the same and piling up titles…
Helps if you have the goat ros and the goat bh.
I see Tignor has picked Ruud to win. Ruud is yet to win a set against the big 3. But Novak showed uncharacteristic frailties against Rune in his last final so u never know.
No one said it was simple; just stating the fact.
What’s wrong with Novak?!
Holding his temples constantly and now hands shaking uncontrollably after only 5 games.
Is he going to make it though the match??
I have no idea, amy. It is painful to see him like that. Today I skipped watching the match and tuned in for the ending and trophy ceremony. Novak was charming and gracious in the end.
Casper Ruud was also charming and gracious as runner-up. The more I watch Casper, the more I like him.
Congrats on Novak’s win Elizabeth!
It’s obvious something is wrong and he said all will be revealed in the new book he has coming out.
I watched the whole match. Casper actually played better than I thought he could but he didn’t have a single break point while Novak had break points in multiple games. Casper is #43! on the ATP leaderboard on return. He won’t win big until that improves. He is an exceptionally likeable and gracious guy although I thought he and Novak did talk rather a lot!😀
Novak was brilliant in the second set and no one can beat him on a hard court in that form. But Casper doesn’t have the big weapons to hurt Novak.
Yes Novak was gracious and articulate as well.
He speaks good Italian!
So everyone ,all analysts are back to putting Novak back to no 1 next year ( could happen as early as Australia) and no one can see beyond him for ao 2023. His fans are calling 2023 as year of revenge where they expect he will win 2 to 3 slams…lot of lofty talk n praise for Novak n deservedly so as he closed the year on a high..
Rafa after a brilliant first half had a horrible second half so much so that we don’t even know what to expect of him in 2023..hope he wins a slam n some other titles of repute.
Novak at 91 vs rafa at 82..matter of time before Novak crosses rafas total titles or some flip in the script..God knows…
Any thoughts ?
BTW Novak being no 5 means he avoids his biggest nemesis Medvedev in qf..they both in 5-8..however the 5-8 bracket can draw rune in 4th round a kyrgios/ tiafoe / shapo ..all in 3rd round ..rada lucky there not to draw all these guys atleast in 3rd round
I’m hoping we see a Novak alcaraz qf at ao next year
Even better if it were the final.
Brilliant by Novakall week.He hit some of the best shots he ever hit esp the backhand.
“Novak at 91 vs rafa at 92..”
Very deceiving, what matters is that Nole is 6 big titles ahead of the permanently injured one and 11 big titles ahead of retired one, the King of 250/500 tournaments.
Ah, so we’re back to the “big titles” total? Figures. That was originally invented to keep Roger in the “Masters titles” conversation as he slipped way behind Rafa and Djoker in the Real Masters (as opposed to the Year End thingy) count.
There is no shame in being the 3rd best player in the history (Roger is 2nd), particularly knowing that he played his entire career injured and in pain, receiving all sorts of needles and something else, the man is martyr, respect.
Y do you have to come here just to insult Rafa and his fans? It’s utterly unnecessary and doesn’t upset us; it just makes you look small and petty.
I am a Rafa fan but if you read my posts you will see I wrote many nice things about Novak. I described his play in the second set as ” brilliant ” because it was.
He will almost certainly end up with the best stats in the history of the sport. But denigrating a player with 22 slams who is still playing and may very well win more is absurd. Novak and Rafa talk often about how much they respect each other and Novak has said multiple times this year that Rafa is his main rival and that their rivalry is very special. So you know better than Novak do you?
I am not even going to dignify your ridiculous jibe that Rafa dopes with a response as it is beneath contempt.
PS we don’t come on your site to jeer at Novak fans when Novak loses. It’s just you who does this.
You gave him importance Amy despite saying you won’t and validated his main purpose of coming here ..just ignore the tard…
Anyways where do you see rafa going from here ? Everyone is jumping on Novak bandwagon but it may not be that straightforward ..anything can happen…
I think the most important thing is Rafa ‘s health sanju. His win against Casper was extremely important simply to break the sequence of losses and he did play like the real.Rafa in the second set. But he was fortunate as Casper donated the first set to him while Rafa was making many nervous errors.
We know how his physical and mental states become intertwined so if he is physically ok then with that win giving him calm I see him rebuilding.
But I think that Novak is the red hot fave to win in AO.
What I want is for Rafa to have a full clay season to amass points and confidence there. If he does that he should win his #23 slam there.
I would like Rafa to target wimby this year. It’s become the least competitive slam by far since Fed retired as no one can play on grass any more. So it’s easily the easiest slam for Novak to win and I want Rafa to work on his game to be specifically ready for grass. How he does that is another question.
Could be spend a little time practising at Toni’s tournament for example? Familiarizing himself with grass.
In retrospect, Rafa having to withdraw from wimby was an enormous blow and I do think he would have beaten NK if fit and could have beaten Novak. Novak would have been the fave but Rafa would have been playing with house money.
Anyway, I really want him to go for the channel slam this year. If he can stay fit, it’s doable, partly as I said because young players are poor on grass.
I expect Novak to be #1 come wimby and so I hope Rafa can bulk up his ranking winning some clay court masters and be #2.
Hoping to see rafa get to 23 this year Amy…I have already discounted the fact that Novak will cross him in slams as his body is holding way better ..however I don’t agree to all these statements that novak will win 25 plus upto 30…folks like mourtaglou, patrick mcenroe ,rusedski etc …..he may win 25 though …however that too won’t be easy ..I think ao n wimby are novaks hunting grounds and wimby will be easier than ao..
Rafa has chance only at rg n outside one at wimby due to less competition ..I think he has 0 chance at ao n uso.
How much probability you see rafa getting 23 next year ..I don’t see it beyond 40 pc.
Really honestly sanju! Even by your standards this is a tad incredible!
0% chance at AO where he is the defending champion! 0% chance at USO when he has more wins with less attempts than Novak!!
Do I think Rafa will win the AO? No I don’t but I didn’t think he would this year! It’s way too soon to start talking about the USO anyway.
Given Rafa’s record at RG he still has to have well over 80%chance of winning it which gives him over an 80% chance of getting to 23.
amy,
This loser is a regular on tennis-x. The place were the worst of the worst Novak fans reside. Trying to reason with someone like this is a losing battle. Theee people can’t handle the fact that Rafa has the most slams now. They are so obsessed with their favorite that they have to denigrate anyone else.
When Rafa wins they crawl back from where they came. When he loses they come out to gloat. Three are not real tennis fans. T
Nny,
Others have said just to ignore his comments and I agree it is best.
Hope you are well?!
One rather bizarre thing is that Rusedski kept saying Novak would be the #1 if he had wimby points. It’s true that he would have same number as Alcaraz 6820 but that is without Alcaraz’s fourth round points which are I think 180!? Meaning he would have 6900.
Rafa loses out also as he would have 6740 with wimby points.
Does put in perspective how low the total of points Alcaraz has from playing all year while both Rafa and Novak have missed large quantities.
To become #1 from Fed Rafa had to get over 10,000 points.
For Novak to take the #1 from Rafa he had to get over 12,000!!
The commentators might be a bit more honest when they hail Alcaraz’s achievement. I don’t know the history of the rankings but getting the year end ,#1 with less than 7,000 points must be very unusual. If Novak had played all year there is no question he would have been #1 and would be way ahead.
Does anyone who knows tennis long term and history of rankings know of other years where someone has been #1 with so few points?
Wow, did I hit a nerve?
Let me first respond to Amy. Can you point to me where exactly I insulted Rafa and his fans, where did I accused him of doping (something Rafa fans accusing Nole of whenever Rafa loses) and I will unreservedly apologise.
All what I said is what Rafa, his team and his fans were saying for the last 15 years starting with his knees.
Even Uncle Toni said once that he didn’t believe he’ll last beyond his 30’s due to the state of his knees, his fans predicted the same. He was having numerous medical procedures, some he didn’t disclose, some apparently not very ethical but nevertheless NOT illegal. His knees are fine now?!
Rafa himself said, during CC season, that he had playing with constant pain for a long time and he soldiers on, nothing short of martyr, later he said that solved the problem by administering needles/injections to numb the nerve and avoid pain.
He retired all pulled out of at least 6-7, probably more GS tournaments in the last decade, lot of injuries, no?
That’s exactly what I said, just recapitulating what happened and what he himself, his fans and team keep telling us for almost 15 years.
As for TX site, it’s not mine like this one is not yours, everyone is free to post everywhere. Looking at your comment about Alcatraz I would say you visited TX site too, since it’s copy/paste of my post from the ladt week.
Alcaraz is #1 by default and not by merits.
PS
There fans from this site who are cross posting on both sites, also fans who are switching the sites, we just had two members of “Rafa rabid senior citizens club” from this site who returned to TX, what have you done to them?
Now it’s that eloquent gentleman and Ramara’s turn.
Don’t worry, I want be insulting you, I do have manners.
You are mixing apples and oranges when you are adding all the tournaments together and putting them in the same basket and just showing them as number.
Can you imagine someone winning 6-7 250/500 tournaments this year and Rafa winning 2GS but someone declaring the other one better since he won 7 minor tournaments?! That’s why we have ranking system which adds the points for every tournament and adding tournaments only.
There are big titles, nobody invented them, they’ve always been there for a reason. Masters are mandatory tournaments by ATP rules for top 32 ((only MC is not), GS are officiated by different body and Olympic games. These tournaments do not have appearance fee nor they are paying players to turn up like 250/500 do. Players are eager to qualify to play them.
More appropriate and accurate would be to do like official ranking system works, add together the point from all tournaments won and check who is in top, it’s not that hard. I know who is on top with quite a margin, what do you think?😉
Last but not least, my good friend, old lady from Florida native of NY.
How are you doing my good friend, it’s been while, you were not very active during Turin?!
Is everything ok with you, have you qualified for aged care facility or you are still living in caravan park.
Anyway, good to hear from,
Merry Christmas and HNY from your friend from Downunder
PS
We have here good and cheap aged care facilities…if you decide to switch the countries. Cheers
Alcaraz will beat Djokovic in AO quarters. As per Cult fam, Rafa has rigged the draw already.
They are 100 pc sure Novak will win ao…where is this alcaraz beating Novak coming from
Who the hell cares .Its not even December
Alcaraz beating Djokovic is my take. Djoker didnt meet the best guys at the finals. Alcaraz, Sinner, Rune. Alcaraz especially has the best chance. he wont get tired and he wont mentally give in.
Cult fam thinks Nadal will rig the draw such that Sinner, Alcarzaz, Rune – all of them will land in Djokovic’s side. Plus, cult fam thinks Nadal controls Australia immigration policy and politicians. He can raise pressure on them to re-instate the ban…lol
Oh, absolutely. Rafa’s amazing power extends well beyond tennis. As well as the Oz gov’t he controls Biden, Putin and the Ukraine. If he wanted to he could just lift his hand and stop the war! It was all a ploy to keep Djoker from getting his Wimbly points as well as his Oz trophy. If he hadn’t been distracted by the birth of his son and Roger’s retirement he’d have done something about the ATP final championship too. I’m told that Rood was supposed to win it, actually. Not quite sure what went wrong the their plan…
I very much doubt Alcaraz will beat Novak unless Novak.is physically hindered.
It took Alcaraz 5 sets to beat Cilic, Sinner and Tiafoe and he nearly went 5 with Ruud.
None of this suggests he is about to beat a hard court maestro at his best slam.
PS elevating Sinner and Rune to the best players in the world is an enormous stretch. Rune has been on a purple patch but he has also had horrible periods this year and it’s very unclear how he will play at a slam. He is very cocky and emotionally immature.
Sinner hasn’t even won a masters and never gone late in a slam and often has injuries or goes 5 with inferior players. If we are relying on him and Rune then we are grasping a t straws.
Its typical to have the trophy handed to Djokovic in advance so that pressures off everyone else. Esp those with injuries .
TBF Djokovic is the clear AO favourite but no doubt a difficult draw can knock him out. There are a lot of players now that can give him tough matches round 4 onwards and one thing we saw is that his recovery power is slightly waning now.
Alcaraz badly needs to develop consistent pattern of plays. Rafa was the master of this even at 19 and I think Djokovic is also great at this. Alcaraz can be a bit too spontaneous even on his own service games. He needs more defined pattern of plays and definitely a more consistent serve.
I am impressed with Novak’s improvements to his backhand slice and volleys. The guy’s a perfectionist and he keeps getting better. Rafa lost his momentum in Wimbledon but I thought his game prior to that was right up there.
Anything can happen at the AO. It is Novak vs the field but the chances of him losing are certainly higher in my opinion.
Ps. I am glad he is playing the AO!
I don’t really see Novak losing unless he is hampered physically. The same issues of recovery of course apply to Rafa. Whenever it is super humid I get extremely nervous for Rafa now as the humidity seems to destroy him physically. The worst match I can remember watching was the one against Zverev at RG.
Novak was brilliant in the second set against Ruud and looked like he did in 2011 which is ominous. He was sub par in the Paris masters final though squandering endless chances in very uncharacteristic fashion.
Chances of his winning AO are extremely high and I definitely take him over the field.
‘Chances of his winning AO are extremely high and I definitely take him over the field’
Thats not rocket science and not restricted to the AO, its Novak Djokovic after all. What I would question is why this prediction of whoever played superbly to win YEC is the favourite to win AO. Theres a huge difference between the two tournaments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPivXOq3Usc
Great quality match. I know it’s an exho but it was great to see rafa hitting the ball like that again. Bonus forehand at 7 min 50 secs 😉
VR,
Thanks for posting the highlights of this match. Great to see Rafa looking good! Oh that forehand ai 7 minutes 50 seconds! Wow!
I haven’t seen much of Rafa because the matches from Turin were not televised in the states. I think they did show Rafa’s third match where he got his only win. But I missed it because I didn’t know it would be on and it was too early. So it was nice to see him playing and looking good.
Sitting back and relaxing ahead of the most important day in my schedule, St Nicholas day, going through some numbers and records:
Rafa 92 titles = 94 000 points
Novak 91 titles = 99 250 points
big titles – Rafa 59
Novak 65
year-end No. 1 – Rafa 5
Novak 7
weeks at No. 1 – Rafa 209
Novak 373
top 10 wins – Rafa 185
Novak 240
…and the list goes on and on….of course it’s 22>21 in GS, but look at the bigger picture, that’s about the only record Rafa has on Novak…. 2 000 points?