Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

Like Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer on Thursday night, Rafael Nadal faces a must-win situation at the Nitto ATP Finals when he takes the court against Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday afternoon.

Nadal remains in dire straits despite staging a miracle comeback from being down 1-5, 30-40 in the third set against Daniil Medvedev in his second round-robin match. The Spaniard ended up prevailing 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(4) to keep alive his semifinal hopes, which looked close to zero following a 6-2, 6-4 blowout loss to Alexander Zverev and looked all the way at zero in the final set against Medvedev.

Tsitsipas, on the other hand, is already through to the semis thanks to straight-set victories over Medvedev and Zverev. The only way in which the 21-year-old would not win Group A is if he loses to Nadal and Medvedev beats Zverev in the nightcap. Those results would leave Nadal at No. 1 and Tsitsipas at No. 2. In any other scenario, Tsitsipas would win the group and either Medvedev or Zverev would finish second.

“It’s really good to know that I’ll be playing in the semifinals,” the world No. 6 said, “but I’ve got to concentrate, keep going the way I have been doing things the last couple of days. My last encounter in groups against Rafa; I am aware that he’s a difficult opponent to face. I’m sure this match is going to mean a lot to him for a chance for him to make it to the semifinals, as well.

“So I’m going to give it my all; I’m going to try to give my soul. I think it’s also a very good challenge for me in order to prepare for more difficult matches in the semifinals and the finals potentially, so this match is going to give me a lot.”

“I really hope that I can play better,” Nadal admitted following his escape against Medvedev. “I [was] better than [against Zverev], of course. I [was] playing a better level of tennis than the first day. [Winning] this match [was] a combination of a lot of things: lucky, some mistakes of Daniil, some good moments of myself at the end.

“But in general terms, knowing that I was not able to practice the way that I would like before the tournament, (to) be able to increase the level since two days ago to today like this is a very positive thing and I’m very happy with this.”

The world No. 1 may have to improve even more to beat Tsitsipas, who is the only undefeated player remaining in London. But it’s almost impossible to predict what kind of performance the Greek will bring to the table. He may not to want to expend too much energy prior to the semis and a loss could actually be a good thing in that it would give him a chance to face Dominic Thiem instead of the Djokovic-Federer winner. That being said, Tsitsipas has always been inspired and even thrived against the Big 3, so he could do it again–especially on a favorable surface with Nadal on the other side of the net.

If Tsitsipas loses either the first or second set, though, it would not be shocking to see him go away quietly like Thiem did in a meaningless match against Matteo Berrettini on Thursday.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 2

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42 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Rafa got dialed in in this return game (thought he would get the break) but Stef fought back with some clutchiness.

    my fingers get too shaky to post when my heart is racing.

  2. It seems that Rafa doesn’t understand how to play on low bouncing quick surfaces; he playing from well behind the baseline and waiting for the ball to come to him with the ball bounces so low when it reaches where he stands, no wonder he’s hitting into the net so often.

    Tsitsipas OTOH is trying to take the ball early hence getting it at a better height and so not having problem getting it over the net.

    Rafa should try playing close to the baseline or better still, moves inside the court!

  3. Roger Federer obviously wanted to win that Nole match ane it was a stellar performance by Fed. But seriously, can Fed repeat that kind of thing back to back to back?

  4. I really hope that Moya would time Rafa when he serves, and trains him to serve within 25 seconds without needing to look at the shot clock all the time. Imo, his first serve is very much affected by that shot clock, when he tends to feel rushed going through his routine before he serves, hence not being able to concentrate fully when serving the first serve.

    If he can serve consistently well (his first serve), that’ll help him a great deal, at least doesn’t need to fight so hard to win on the HCs (esp indoors) and also on grass.

  5. Tsitsipas reminds me of Murray against Fed at 2008 YEC. Murray back then had already secured his SF berth to play Davy, and was playing a meaningless RR vs Fed and yet he went all out to beat Fed.

    He lost to Davy rather meekly in the SF the following day, not a wise move by Murray. Why waste precious energy on a not so important RR match at the expense of the more important SF?

    I hope Tsitsipas doesn’t follow in Murray’s footstep here, he has bigger fish to fry in the SF.

    • Federer’s performance might be looked at like a one-off. Maybe not, but I don’t think Fed will win the WTF title. I don’t mean to be mean, just grumpy. LOL

      People here tend to think Fed is a lock. In the past I would agree. I have to see it to believe it. And I will be very happy for Federer and Fed fans if he win it but when was the last time he did that??

  6. Feels like Rafa should have broken already. Only 1-7 on break points. Is it an age thing the inability to convert break points? He and fed maybe hold some kind of record.

  7. Rafa’s inability to convert BPs may come back and haunt him. Why creates so many chances yet couldn’t take them? What’s the point?

    • amy,

      I am here! Just getting ready to go to the hairdresser. I answered you on the other page.

      Now I can leave happy. Rafa did it again. He has now done all he could and it’s up to whoever wins the match with Zverev and Medvedev. But he finishes on a high note.

      I am with Elizabeth in not being sure if Fed will win. Thiem and Tsisipas are looking good. He seems motivated and good for him if he does.

      I am just so proud of Rafa!

      • Rafa certainly deserves to be YE #1 !
        He is the strongest. I’m not sure about Rafa or Federer winning the title but…between the two, I pick Rafa. That’s right. Rafa was not going to lose today. He’s been in classic Rafa fighting mode.

        It would be awesome if Rafa did snatch the trophy 😀 Who is Dominic Thiem? LOL

      • Echo that! I am incredibly proud of Rafa! He fought like a lion and played beautifully. Tsitsi did well too, for a guy with little on the line.

  8. Rafa doing his Rafa stuff.. 😃😃 but got to feel it will be too tough to compete in the semis at his age after playing two three setters of three hrs.. if he qualifies. But 200 more points🤗

  9. Genuis! Not at his absolute best but playing so smartly. Great point-construction and finishing at the net.

    This was a very entertaining set and hats off to Tsitsi as well!

    Not sure how motivated Medvedev will be now but I think he will beat Zverev.

  10. Rafa digging out the big serves to get it done.

    And Rafa wins!

    Congratulations Everyone! Congratulations Rafa! Stefanos close but not enough

  11. VAMOS Rafa!! I am so happy for him, he keeps surprising me here!!! Nice win for him! Wow, Rafa is so tough!!

    This is so wonderful to see Rafa lift this trophy!!! Never saw it happening this year!!

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