Like Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer on Thursday night, Rafael Nadal faces a must-win situation at the Nitto ATP Finals when he takes the court against Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday afternoon.
Nadal remains in dire straits despite staging a miracle comeback from being down 1-5, 30-40 in the third set against Daniil Medvedev in his second round-robin match. The Spaniard ended up prevailing 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(4) to keep alive his semifinal hopes, which looked close to zero following a 6-2, 6-4 blowout loss to Alexander Zverev and looked all the way at zero in the final set against Medvedev.
Tsitsipas, on the other hand, is already through to the semis thanks to straight-set victories over Medvedev and Zverev. The only way in which the 21-year-old would not win Group A is if he loses to Nadal and Medvedev beats Zverev in the nightcap. Those results would leave Nadal at No. 1 and Tsitsipas at No. 2. In any other scenario, Tsitsipas would win the group and either Medvedev or Zverev would finish second.
“It’s really good to know that I’ll be playing in the semifinals,” the world No. 6 said, “but I’ve got to concentrate, keep going the way I have been doing things the last couple of days. My last encounter in groups against Rafa; I am aware that he’s a difficult opponent to face. I’m sure this match is going to mean a lot to him for a chance for him to make it to the semifinals, as well.
“So I’m going to give it my all; I’m going to try to give my soul. I think it’s also a very good challenge for me in order to prepare for more difficult matches in the semifinals and the finals potentially, so this match is going to give me a lot.”
“I really hope that I can play better,” Nadal admitted following his escape against Medvedev. “I [was] better than [against Zverev], of course. I [was] playing a better level of tennis than the first day. [Winning] this match [was] a combination of a lot of things: lucky, some mistakes of Daniil, some good moments of myself at the end.
“But in general terms, knowing that I was not able to practice the way that I would like before the tournament, (to) be able to increase the level since two days ago to today like this is a very positive thing and I’m very happy with this.”
The world No. 1 may have to improve even more to beat Tsitsipas, who is the only undefeated player remaining in London. But it’s almost impossible to predict what kind of performance the Greek will bring to the table. He may not to want to expend too much energy prior to the semis and a loss could actually be a good thing in that it would give him a chance to face Dominic Thiem instead of the Djokovic-Federer winner. That being said, Tsitsipas has always been inspired and even thrived against the Big 3, so he could do it again–especially on a favorable surface with Nadal on the other side of the net.
If Tsitsipas loses either the first or second set, though, it would not be shocking to see him go away quietly like Thiem did in a meaningless match against Matteo Berrettini on Thursday.
Pick: Tsitsipas in 2
[polldaddy poll=10457806]
WWW?
Rafa in two or three. After surviving the Medvedev match, Rafa knows he has to play better and he will, if not for the SF slot (out of his control should Sasha beat Medvedev), at least wins another 200 points and make it difficult for Djoko to become YE no.1.
This 200 will make no difference to djoko for no 1. He has to win it to be no 1 n will be unless Rafa reaches final
nothing matters other than Djokovic. If Djokovic wins the title, he is No. 1. If Djokovic doesn’t, Nadal is No. 1.
No if Rafa reaches final winning last rr n semi he takes no 1 even if djoko wins title
Nadal cannot reach the final if DJokovic wins the title. they would play in the semis.
If Djokovic wins and Rafa is runner-up with 1 RR win each, Rafa will be #1 with 10,185 points and Djoko on 10,045 points.
If they both win 2 RRs, with Djoko winning the title and Rafa the runner-up, Rafa will be #1 with 10,385 points with Djoko on 10245 points.
All Rafa has to do now is make the final to be YE #1. It won’t matter if Djokovic wins the title.
It will, psychologically it will be tougher for Djoko at least, anyway no need to worry now as Fed has done it (for Rafa).
The 200 points will be handy come next year to at least pull away a bit from Djoko.
I am going with Rafa. Not sure about how many sets. It could go to three sets. But Rafa has a lot to play for and the last match should give him a boost of confidence. Rafa is a fierce competitor and will give it his all.
Rafa one set away from year end no 1
Go roger!
I was in the stands for Rafa vs Zverev. Although clearly 100% physically fit, Nadal was nowhere near match fit at starting time. He seemed to know it as he totally lacked confidence. Hence wrong tactics (basically always playing his BH cross court to Zverev FH, no net play, uninspired decisions, uncharacteristic unforced errors), short balls, mediocre serve (that was expected though). Obviously that got assorted with an almost flawless display from the Russian in the first set (inhuman first serve percentage and speed, line painting) and bad luck.
Even so, Rafa was slowly getting the upper hand, but it was too little too late. He started playing decently by the middle of the second set, but the damage was done. If he saved just one of the two breaks in the first set the result would have been perhaps different.
The canny tactician and never-say-die Rafa was back against Medvedev, but we have to appreciate how honest he was when assessing his incredible comeback.
Now, the #1 Rafa will probably be back to demolish an uninterested Tsitsipas. The Greek is by no means an indoor specialist and even if the courts are ridiculously fast he’s probably no match for a fully fit Nadal. Looking at how Thiem-Berrettini went, Stefanos will probably preserve himself for the semifinal and Medvedev will try to either save face or qualify and will most likely beat a deflated “Sacha”.
Like always, the London organizers did their worst. They disadvantaged Nadal and scheduled his match first agains common sense. Either way the second match of the day could have been “dead”, but there are far more chances that this happens if Medvedev-Zverev is the last. Besides, who really cares about any of them? Maybe only the Russians.
I keep thinking how unfortunate Nadal is that the ATP finals are being kept in London for basically all of his career. This seems to have greatly contributed to his inability to win the event. This is also totally unfair – a country with mediocre tennis confiscating this event for more than a decade.
Whatever happens now in Rafa’s and/or the other match in the group, I’m not so worried now after Rafa gets his YE no. 1; just hope for two good matches.
Good luck to the player who has to play Fed in the SF; Fed is on fire, if he continues to play like that, no one can stop him and the WTF title will be his.
probably won’t, let’s be honest
Be calm, be focused, be confident, be courageous, be strong, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJZ3Ta4WoAAZrTA?format=jpg&name=medium
Just realized that if Tsitsipas loses to Rafa he has a big chance to finish second and avoid Federer in the semis. Not sure that he will really “give his soul” under the circumstances as it’s highly unlikely (to say the least) that he would have enough left for Roger tomorrow.
Can Roger repeat his Nole-avenging performances all the way to win here the title here?
SF scenarios:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJaNhggWkAEgvEY?format=jpg&name=medium
I posted the same picture in the “Medvedev vs. Zverev” thread.
So if tsitsi wins, Rafa is out irrespective of zverev winning losing
Rafa playing very well.
Nah, I really doubt Stefanos has the composure or guile to beat Rafa in this match.
Stefanos has performed well at his first WTF, though. Have to say he held serve to reach a TB this first set. I did not think that would happen.
Rafa making UEs that he normally won’t make. What happens to the top two guys this tournament?
Some utterly bizarre errors by Rafa. Gimme shots he would normally make in his sleep…
Rafa very poor in TBs these days, no longer that clutch when it matters.
Stefanos making errors as well so he had his chances..
I think a Rafa let this tiebreak get away from him. Tsitsipas is playing very well. But Rafa are some errors he would normally not make.
Maybe thinking about Davis Cup next week?
amy,
I don’t know. I still think that Rafa needs to be at his best here. I think he had a slow start with Zverev and that put him in a tough position. Now he can’t qualify on his own. He has to win and get help.
He’s done what he can, but on this surface he has to come in ready and healthy.
Now he has #1 it may be better for him to go home and rest for Davis cup. Don’t want to watch him being duffed up by Roger..
What a mess in my last post. Rafa made some errors he would not normally make in that TB.
Whoever wins here will be slaughtered by Fed in the SF, so Rafa not winning this match may be a blessing for him. He’s just not good on low bouncing fast courts.
Tsitsipas may do better than Rafa vs Fed; he at least has a bigger serve and plays more aggressive tennis (than Rafa), the court here suits his game style too.
Rafa making too many errors with his BH, FH not that great either.
Davis Cup in Madrid will be worse for Rafa when the ball moves quicker through the air at high altitude. Rafa is not made to play on quick courts, he’s too defensive and playing from too far back.
What is he doing?! So many chances!
Rafa is not thinking about anything but winning this match – you know? It’s Rafa’s way – he’ll fight it out to the last ball and win in three sets if he has to.Only thing that would stop Rafa is something not right with one of his body parts.
Surprising first set though.
Ugh, that miss on 30-40 was so unlike him