Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be battling for Group B supremacy at the Nitto ATP Finals when they headline the afternoon session on Tuesday.

The two most recent Grand Slam champions kicked off their respective London campaigns in style on Sunday. Thiem opened with a 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-3 victory over defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, while Nadal took care of year-end championship debutant Andrey Rublev 6-3, 6-4.

This round-robin winners’ match marks the 15th career contest between Nadal and Thiem, with the Spaniard leading the head-to-head series 9-5. Not too surprisingly, a whopping 12 of their 14 previous meetings have come on clay. However, Thiem has improved dramatically on hard courts of late and as a result he went up against Nadal deep into the fortnight at hard-court slams twice in the past three seasons. The current world No. 2 survived 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in the 2018 U.S. Open quarterfinals, while the Austrian prevailed 7-6(3), 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) at the same stage of this year’s Australian Open.

Thiem eventually finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic Down Under (lost in five sets) but finally captured his first slam title at this summer’s U.S. Open (beat Alexander Zverev in a fifth-set tiebreaker). The world No. 3 somewhat understandably has not done much since then, but he is well-rested for London and that has already paid off in the form of his victory over Tsitsipas.

The same can be said of Nadal, who won the French Open for the 13th time in his illustrious career and then took some time off until the next Parisian event indoors in Bercy. He advanced to the semifinals but lost to Zverev in straight sets. Nadal has still never won the Paris Masters, nor has he ever lifted the trophy at the Nitto ATP Finals.

With Nadal never at his best inside the O2 Arena, this is a good opportunity for Thiem to start 2-0 in London for a second straight year.

Pick: Thiem in 3

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29 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Thiem does not thrive indoors either. Sure, he beat Federer and Djokovic last year, but they were quite out of sorts, same for Nadal. Even so, he failed to lift the trophy.
    It really depends on the day – especially which player serves better but also which takes the right amount of risk.
    Since Thiem struggled to beat Tsitsipas (which I get is not at 100%), I give the edge to Rafa.

  2. All Rafa has to do is serve well and not engage in endless rallies with Thiem which he thrives on. Rafa should keep the points short and sweet and mix it up.

    Thiem was serving big against Tsitsipas so Rafa needs to return well to control the points.

    Vamos!

    • Rafa really disappointed me there!! That was a huge fuck up in that tie break after leading 5:2!! He did everything wrong after that point!!! What a shame!! Unbelievable!! Steups!! Not watching rest of match, really pissed!!

  3. If Rafa had taken the first set he could well have won! With him serving second and looking a bit disconsolate I don’t see him winning now..

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