Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be battling for Group B supremacy at the Nitto ATP Finals when they headline the afternoon session on Tuesday.

The two most recent Grand Slam champions kicked off their respective London campaigns in style on Sunday. Thiem opened with a 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-3 victory over defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, while Nadal took care of year-end championship debutant Andrey Rublev 6-3, 6-4.

This round-robin winners’ match marks the 15th career contest between Nadal and Thiem, with the Spaniard leading the head-to-head series 9-5. Not too surprisingly, a whopping 12 of their 14 previous meetings have come on clay. However, Thiem has improved dramatically on hard courts of late and as a result he went up against Nadal deep into the fortnight at hard-court slams twice in the past three seasons. The current world No. 2 survived 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in the 2018 U.S. Open quarterfinals, while the Austrian prevailed 7-6(3), 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) at the same stage of this year’s Australian Open.

Thiem eventually finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic Down Under (lost in five sets) but finally captured his first slam title at this summer’s U.S. Open (beat Alexander Zverev in a fifth-set tiebreaker). The world No. 3 somewhat understandably has not done much since then, but he is well-rested for London and that has already paid off in the form of his victory over Tsitsipas.

The same can be said of Nadal, who won the French Open for the 13th time in his illustrious career and then took some time off until the next Parisian event indoors in Bercy. He advanced to the semifinals but lost to Zverev in straight sets. Nadal has still never won the Paris Masters, nor has he ever lifted the trophy at the Nitto ATP Finals.

With Nadal never at his best inside the O2 Arena, this is a good opportunity for Thiem to start 2-0 in London for a second straight year.

Pick: Thiem in 3

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5 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Thiem is 725 points behind ..he will be in position to beat him not this year but next year if he plays tourneys before ao..thiem is defending 800 points from last year’s wtf

    • Am really fed up that Rafa keeps losing tbs he should win off clay! He was clutch at tbs in the past…wonder if he is getting a complex about them..

  2. Ok so with tsitsi victory, the man who wins goes through to the semis.. if rafa wins and Dom loses against RAfa, how does Rafa top the group. Is it possible at all? Or does Rafa finish second because he was beaten by Thiem? Finishing first may be crucial to avoid Djoko in the semis. Maybe it will be clearer tomorrow.. if djoko loses to meddy, then it may be better to finish second

  3. If djoko loses to medvedev it will be better to finish second…I think it’s clear thiem has topped group and rafa/tsitsi will be second

  4. Oh so now that explains it! Rafa wanted to finish second to avoid Novak!!
    Well……what happens now that Novak lost in str8ts to Med, although Novak looked like ‘I don’t really give a damn about this tourney’ mood!

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