Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer will not be the championship matchup at the Nitto ATP Finals, but aside from that the stakes could hardly be higher on Thursday night.

Djokovic and Federer will collide in what is virtually a quarterfinal, with the winner advancing to the semis and the loser bowing out of the tournament. Both all-time greats have been put on thin ice in London by Dominic Thiem, who upset Federer in the opening match of the week and then stunned Djokovic in a three-set thriller on Tuesday.

This marks the 49th career meeting between Djokovic and Federer, with the Serb leading the head-to-head series 26-22. What matters more than the overall score is that Djokovic has won five in a row and nine of their last 11 meetings. Federer has not picked up a win since the 2015 year-end championship, where he prevailed 7-5, 6-2 during round-robin action only to see Djokovic get him back with a 6-3, 6-4 triumph in the title match. They have square off just once in 2019 and it needs no reminder: a five-set epic in the Wimbledon final that went the 32-year-old’s way from double-championship point down.

“Maybe it took me a few days, couple weeks at most, to get over the Wimbledon loss,” Federer said following his 7-6(2), 6-3 defeat of Matteo Berrettini on Tuesday and before Djokovic lost to Thiem. “At the end of the day, I still thought I played a great final and a great tournament, beating [Rafael Nadal] there along the way. I’m excited playing against him. I’m excited to see how he’s going to play tonight, as well. It’s definitely going to give me some more information about what to expect.

“But other than that, I think I need to focus on my game, what I do best. And regardless of what I need to do, I just hope I play well.”

Perhaps the information Federer received from Djokovic vs. Thiem is that the world No. 2 is beatable, but also that Thiem played probably the best match of his career–in the Austrian’s own words–and still required a third-set tiebreaker to get across the finish line.

“I knew that I had to play like this to beat him,” Thiem explained. “Probably Novak is the best player in the world right now, so I had to do something outstanding, something unusual, and that’s what I did.”

Despite the setback, Djokovic–who must beat Federer and go on to win the event if he wants to finish the season No. 1–is still 13-2 this fall with titles in Tokyo and Paris. The 16-time Grand Slam champion is 27-4 in his last 31 matches inside the O2 Arena with titles 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 plus another trophy from Shanghai in 2008. He has been stellar again this week, getting victimized only by Thiem’s onslaught two days after erasing Berrettini 6-2, 6-1.

Based on current form and recent head-to-head history, Djokovic is clearly the favorite on Thursday. But these two almost always deliver the goods against each other and dramatic matches have suddenly become the norm in London.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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3 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. And come on, let’s not judge someone so harshly. We have no idea how much effort these guys put in and how many sacrifices he makes. I’ve never ‘liked’ Djokovic but I see him as the most gracious loser amongst the top players! There is always warmth in his embraces at the net even when he loses and no way you can fake this when you are facing such difficult defeats.

    I think the guy genuinely matured and got over his antics. If that weren’t the case, this era wouldn’t have seen such dominance from this man. From being called ‘Chokovic’ to holding the Nole slam, clinching 5 year-end no.1’s, taking it to Fedal in the head to head and winning 29 masters 100( in this decade)!

    I can totally see why his fanbase is not as big and why Fedal are more likable. But, at least as far as I am concerned, I have utmost respect for his game and his achievements.

  2. Well my rationale is..fed has more fans in the bracket who are 35 plus today and who are his fans from early 20s whereas rafas fans are younger. He is more popular amongst kids, youth and youngsters in general because of his gladiator intense fighting spirit and ofcourse with ladies( maybe the smile works there alongside the game and machismo ).

    So you have 2 sections split between the two. Who is left then for Djokovic to win over except some neutrals or plain tennis lovers who just admire the game.

  3. Djokovic does get a lack of respect or appreciation from crowds generally, and I do feel sorry for him for that. I don’t think there’s any one reason for it, it’s more a combination of factors.

    If you look at Fed’s early years, he wasn’t really that popular and he had a bratty temperament. Then he turned into a machine that dominated the competition (bar clay) before Nadal’s level grew. Once that happened you had a perfect rivalry of contrasting styles, a 2nd marketing of ‘fire vs ice’, and that really helped the public’s interest and imagination with tennis. The rivalry took the game to new heights, and both players seemed to have a great love and respect for the game which also helped to endear them to many.

    Personally I was glad when Djokovic came along and changed the picture. But it seems a lot of people saw him as this interlocutor getting in the way of the rivalry, some fans saw him as an interruption. Some of his behaviour wouldn’t have helped either – mainly the number of smashed racquets, but also stuff with injury timeouts. Still, I thought he was a reasonably likeable guy, his impressions showed he definitely had a sense of humour at least.

    I agree with the comment above that Djokovic probably expected his appreciation to grow more than it has, which has led to some feelings of inferiority. His reaction probably compounded the problem, as it’s obvious he wants to be liked (similar to a schoolkid who will try anything to be popular), but he is then perceived as insincere. He has dealt with these issues well, but they still obviously remain.

    I think the Serb/Eastern Europe factor probably exists to some extent as well, a certain snobbishness in parts of the world, but I don’t think it’s the driving factor.

    Another issue is just the way Novak’s game doesn’t seem to capture the casual fans so much as Nadal’s or Federer’s. It’s not nearly as distinctive as the other two guys, and to the less familiar tennis followers, probably doesn’t look so impressive. If you go through something like Youtube comments (god help you) you’ll see trolling from all sides, but the comments complaining about ‘boring’ tennis are largely still reserved for Djokovic. Even though I don’t personally like his style like I do Fed’s, I think this is unfair, there is plenty of excitement in a Djokovic/Murray match, it’s just a different kind of match-up.

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