Rafael Nadal is currently a slight favorite to win the upcoming French Open ahead of Novak Djokovic. Everyone else, of course, is a huge longshot to capture the season’s second Grand Slam title. A two-team panel debates which man has the edge with more than two weeks still to go before the tennis world descends on Paris.
Ricky: For now, nothing can sway me from the opinion that Nadal should be the favorite for the French Open. The only thing that could change that (outside of some kind of unforeseen injury or illness) is a Djokovic straight-set blowout of Nadal in the Rome final. The Serb’s Monte-Carlo performance was stellar but not earth-shattering. Beating Nadal in a best-of-five-setter on clay? Now that’s earth-shattering, and only one man has ever done it (and even Robin Soderling needed an injured Nadal on the other side of the net in order to accomplish the feat). Ask John Isner about the difference between best-of-three and best-of-five. Isner led Nadal two sets to one in the first round of the 2011 French Open, but the underdog American needed one more and instead he lost the next two 6-2, 6-4.
Consider these numbers that prove the aforementioned point. At the three clay-court Masters events leading up to Roland Garros (Monte-Carlo, Rome, Madrid after it moved to clay, and Hamburg before it lost Masters status), the fifth-ranked Spaniard is 106-10 lifetime. That’s amazing by the standards of anyone else, but not by those of Nadal. By contrast, at the French Open he is an outrageous 52-1. That’s a .914 winning percentage at the clay-court Masters compared to a .981 winning percentage at the clay-court slam.
As for Djokovic’s loss to Grigor Dimitrov in his Madrid opener on Tuesday, it’s not that big of a deal. It simply confirmed what we already knew: the French Open is more than just Nadal vs. Djokovic. Should they actually face each other, perhaps it would be a 50-50 toss-up. But it may not even happen, and if one of them loses earlier in the event you can bet it’s going to be Djokovic. Even on a bad day, Nadal will beat anyone in the Roland Garros field other than Djokovic–and probably with ease, too. For Djokovic, however, bad days are far more dire. Two of the world No. 1’s last four French Open losses have come to players ranked outside the Top 20 at the time (Philipp Kohlschreiber and Jurgen Melzer). This season, Djokovic has already lost three times to non-Big 4 opponents (Juan Martin Del Potro, Tommy Haas, and Dimitrov). Nadal’s only such setback has come at his first tournament following a seven-month layoff (to Horacio Zeballos in Vina del Mar).
**note: the following section was written before Djokovic’s loss to Dimitrov**
Josh (The Sixth Set): Regardless of the results in Madrid and Rome, which will most likely shape the Roland Garros landscape as we draw nearer, my French Open pick is undoubtedly Djokovic to hoist his first Coupe des Mousquetaires. Here’s my reasoning: for me, Monte-Carlo served as an intriguing prelude to the French Open. The final revealed many things about the 2013 version of the Djokovic-Nadal rivalry. At present, the playing field isn’t as level as it was in years past. Monte-Carlo proved that Nadal’s clay playgrounds are conquerable by others. If he’s beatable at the site of his eight-year reign, he’s beatable anywhere–including Roland Garros.
Additionally, from a tactical standpoint the Djoker’s riddle was unsolvable. It had been 10 months since the Spaniard faced the neutralizing defense and paralyzing aggressiveness of his fiercest rival and his game was no match. Nadal’s heavy forehands, the hallmark of his clay prowess, were gobbled up and his backhand suffered as well. As the first set slowly crept towards a bagel, Nadal’s confidence in his shot selection waned. Djokovic anticipated well, used Nadal’s attacking gameplan against him and dictated the tempo of the match from the start. He executed his patterns to perfection, finding cross-court angles that not even a molecular physicist could discover with a microscope, and he hammered his backhand down the line effortlessly. If Djokovic plays that brilliantly at Roland Garros, no one can stop him. It’s that simple.
Another glaring question mark is Nadal’s physical stamina in a best-of-five tournament. Rafa should hope to be drawn in the same quarter as Novak so he is fresher than he otherwise would be when he gets a crack at the world No. 1, and also before having to potentially face Federer or Murray. It will be interesting to see how Nadal’s body holds up under the strain of playing his first best-of-five matches since Wimbledon. Consider this: the average length of the previous five Rafa-Nole Grand Slam battles was four hours. Since returning to action in Februray, Nadal’s longest match (a three-set loss to Horacio Zeballos) has lasted 2:47. Djokovic is perfectly willing to play his patient, economical game and the longer the match extends, the more it favors the Serb. Look for this to be a key intangible should they meet. As I mentioned, their results in Madrid and Rome will go a long way in revealing their forms heading into Roland Garros and I wouldn’t be surprised if I reverse my pick in the coming weeks. At this moment, however, I have to go with Djokovic to dethrone the King of Clay and complete the Nole Slam.
[polldaddy poll=7089242]
Leave a Reply