The night session in Montreal on Thursday will see Rafael Nadal go up against surprising third-round performer Denis Shapovalov. Alexander Zverev and Nick Kyrgios are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (WC) Denis Shapovalov
Nadal’s draw at the Rogers Cup has opened up nicely, to the extent that his path to No. 1 in the world is clear. The top-seeded Spaniard must reach only the semifinals to officially regain the highest ranking next Monday, but for a moment the likes of John Isner, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Milos Raonic were in the way. No more. Isner and Del Potro had to square off in round one (the Argentine prevailed in straight sets), Del Potro promptly lost his next match to Shapovalov, and both Raonic and David Goffin have also tumbled out of that section of the bracket.
The immediate result is an unexpected showdown between Nadal and Shapovalov on Thursday night. On the heels of an opening bye, the world No. 2 had no trouble advancing with a 6-1, 6-2 beatdown of Borna Coric on Wednesday. Shapovalov saved four matches to get through his opener 4-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 over Rogerio Dutra Silva before downing Del Potro 6-3, 7-6(4). The 18-year-old Canadian, who registers at 143rd in the rankings, has picked up the fourth and fifth ATP-level match victories of his career (compared to seven losses). Perhaps drained both mentally and physically, Shapovalov may not have enough left to seriously trouble a well-rested and in-form Nadal.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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(4) Alexander Zverev vs. (16) Nick Kyrgios
Zverev and Kyrgios were slated to square off in the Washington, D.C. third round, as well. Kyrgios, though, was still dealing with a hip injury and he retired from his first-rounder against Tennys Sandgren. That left the door wide open for Zverev and the 20-year-old German walked through it, ultimately capturing the fifth title of his career. Fast forward one week and Kyrgios is back in business, ready to challenge his good friend and occasional doubles partner. The 24th-ranked Australian has destroyed Viktor Troicki and Paolo Lorenzi without dropping more than three games in any set, improving his 2017 record to an abbreviated 21-10.
Like Shapovalov (and several others in Montreal), Zverev has found himself one point from boarding a plane for Cincinnati. Instead, the world No. 8 survived a 49-shot rally and recovered to beat Richard Gasquet 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(3) in a second-round thriller. Zverev is now an incredible 42-13 this season, including 13-2 in his last 15 matches dating back to Halle. He does, however, have some odds stacked against him. Montreal’s eighth seed is coming off a long week in Washington, D.C. and he is 0-2 lifetime against Kyrgios–with losses earlier this year in Indian Wells and Miami.
Pick: Kyrgios in 3
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Just watched some highlights.
My take on Shapovalov:
The boy was Rafa’s mascot in Rogers Cup 2008 and this week he beats Rafa in the same tournament. He played with a big heart and took risks. He was not intimidated and came out very animated right from the first game. The boy deserves praise as he played a great match.
My take on Rafa:
His performance was POOR. I said after the Muller match at Wimby that Rafa’s ROS struggles are sometimes compounded when he faces a good lefty server. The reason is lack of familiarity and of course lack of training against those lefty serves. Rafa can struggle with ROS against righties but he is much more used to the patterns and handles them better. IN this match, once again, he returned so poorly. His opponent was smart when he hit a lot of second serves to Rafa’s forehand. Those kickers moving away from Rafa’s forehand and with Rafa standing so far back was just not getting enough on the returns.
Rafa’s groundstrokes were equally disappointing. Forget about when he was nervos (the third set TB), the ‘average depth’ on his groundstrokes was BAD.He was passive and I was really disappointed because I was expecting something similar to Montreal 2013.
I am not too disappointed with Rafa’s serve. It was not really effective in this match but was not the biggest of problems.
It would be silly to have high hopes at Cincy given his poor history. I guess Fed is going to cruise to no.1. I am not losing hopes for USO but Rafa better get back on track.
You dominated clay season and had a very good hard court season as well before clay. COME ON MAN! get back on track! no excuse not to!
The problem with Rafa is that he’s standing too far back when returning from his FH corner, i.e. the ad court. It’s not only vs lefties, I was pissed with Rafa when he was returning from so far back during his match with Fed at the AO. Fed took full advantage of that, serving out wide time and again at the ad court and Rafa just refused to change his return position.
Rafa could step forward to return from his FH corner, evident when playing against the big serving Raonic in the AO QF match. He returning from closer to the baseline worked well against Raonic, as Raonic stopped serving out wide at the ad court once he saw Rafa stepping forward to return serves. I wonder why Rafa wasn’t doing that vs Fed, Muller and Shapo.
Rafa returned better from his BH corner, at least he stepped forward while returning 2nd serves from that corner.
not ideal to return from that far back on hard courts against righties as well but we need to understand that happens after he hits a bad/mediocre return. When he does that against a lefty, the ball goes straight to their forehand, begging to be punished.
Like I said, ROS can often be an issue against righties as well but he can tend to get more clueless against strong lefty serves. For e.g., kick serves to Rafa’s forehand on the deuce court are moving into Rafa’s body when they are struck by righties but the same serves are moving away from him when struck by lefties. it is just that he is more familiar with those patterns. However, the ROS struggles are NOT at all restricted to lefties.
What Rafa should do is moves forward to return serves, cutting off the wide angle, perhaps even tries returning it DTL sometimes. At least varies the way he returns to keep his opponent guessing.
He did well vs Raonic but refused to do the same vs Fed in the AO final. By cutting off the angle, he’s forcing his opponent to serve aces down the T and that will restrict his opponent’s choices, and seriously how many big servers could serve aces down the T so often without missing? Not even Raonic or Fed could consistently do that!
Rafa’s ROS has really deteriorated, I don’t remember he had problems returning serves in the past. I don’t understand how come? Perhaps he’s slower now, or less confident with his own game in general?
Nny….thanks for your reply yesterday..I am leaving my reply here so you don’t miss it.
I didn’t see the match which makes it very hard to comment on it. I saw lucky’s post to you saying fed also had problems with the ball. So maybe that is part of it. But I still feel Rafa should have adjusted and won.
I keep asking where Carlos is?!!
I’ve said from the beginning he needs a counterbalance to toni. at
Wimbledon I said I really believed he would win uso. But I thought he would win here…am very frustrated.
Mira, am very sorry you are so upset…I agree with what you say
sending you a big hugxxxx
Amy,
I hope that my summary was of some help to you. Lucky and VR’s analysis should also help to give you a clear picture of what happened. If you had seen the match, you would be ten times more cross! It was frustrating beyond belief. Shap may have played well, but it’s not hard to hit winners when your opponent is camped out way behind the baseline. Rafa ceded so much ground that it was easy pickings for Shap to step up into the court and blast winners.
I concerned about Moya’s absence. Rafa needs him.
Nny am sure I would have been very cross! Wish I had seen the match as it’s so hard to comment otherwise.. I was so sure he would play well..
Hey amy!…Thank u for your wonderful thoughts to me!..really really appreciate it amy!…Bout Rafa..yeah…i wonder whether his team notice the difference with rafa’s form when Moya was there with him and when he’s not…and whether they’re willing to change their earlier agreement based on Rafa’s current state?
Btw..how r u amy?Everything’s okay in your part of the world?Miss u here amy!…Lots!!
Am fine mira…hope you are okay??
yes I was thinking the same about Carlos and hoping he will now be at the uso..
Miss u too..
Big hugs xxx
Hey back amy!…haha..u sounds like u wanna rush to somewhere!hehe..yeah i’m fine amy!..thank u for asking ma’am!
Thanks for the big hugs!!
Sorry mira, I am posting on my phone and I have never done that before so it is hard to write!!
I am thinking about you!!
I would write more if I was on my computer.. xx
Is Moya going to be there in Cincy? Or will he only be there for USO?
vr…augusta told me when I asked her back at Wimbledon that Carlos isn’t around for either Wimbledon or the NA season including uso. I was really fed up when I heard this… Carlos is good for Rafa.
that’s bad!
I don’t think we should be giving too much weigh to Rafa’s inability to handle anxiety etc etc. The guy has overcome nerves/anxiety quite consistently this season and he destroyed the field on clay. He even overcame his biggest mental hurdle , Djokovic ,who was not playing his best but still…
It was weird he had this loss but I am not going to fret over this loss that much and rather wait to see him play Cincy/USO.
Rafa may meet Muller in R3 at Cincy if both get there. I’m not keen on seeing them play each other so early in the draw. It’s not looking good for Rafa at all this HC season. I doubt he will do well at the USO. Unlike 2010 and 2013, Rafa doesn’t show us that he’s confident, his body language during his two matches at Montreal told me so.
It will be tough time for Rafa from now on as it’s HCs all the way, on quicker surfaces and then on indoors. I do think he should forget about the no.1 ranking and plays freely, plays like there’s nothing to lose.
It’s upsetting that Rafa let his opportunity slipped away from him here at Montreal – Shapo and Mannarino are both beatable by Rafa, and by beating them to reach the SF, he would be no.1 already. He may then play with one less burden off his mind, who knows, that may motivate him to play better in the SF and possibly in the final!
Right now he has more doubts in his mind; worse still, no Moya or Toni at Cincy during his practices to give him some tips and encouragement.
It’s a bad draw for both but I would say Rafa is the solid favorite if they play. Not sure who I will pick and honestly Muller may lose to Harrison round one and Rafa to Gasquet in round two. Gasquet did just have match points vs Zverev who is playing phenomenal tennis and looks like he will make the finals in Montreal. And Harrison has done a little more this hard court season than Gilles plus Gilles has cooled off a bit since Wimbledon. Still would probably have to favor a Rafa vs Muller matchup though.
I said that I thought Rafa was too passive in the match with Shap. I see in reading vr’s analysis that he thought the same thing. I also frktvther his groundstrokes were not penetrating enough. I see that vr mentioned the lack of depth on his groundstrokes. So that was why he was not getting penetration. Rafa said that he didn’t feel the ball. Lucky mentioned the problems with the balls and court conditions that both Fed and RBA also mentioned. But they were able to adjust.
I am concerned about this loss. I don’t care how well Shap played. This match was on Rafa’s racket. It was a step backwards for him and a lost opportunity to become #1. Rafa cannot afford to keep giving up opportunities at this stage of his career.
Montreal was always his best shot. Cincy is not as good for him. Fed will have the clear advantage there. Rafa also has to bump up against Muller again. Not good.
Fed has the chance to win Montreal and Cincy now. I had high hopes for Rafa going into the NA summer hard court season. But now I just don’t know.
I understand your concern for Rafa, NNY. However, perhaps it will help Rafa to go into Cinci having not gone really deep in Montreal?
Kevin,
Your posts have been great to read! Just a pleasure! You have a positive attitude. You are not mean-spirited at all.
I am not giving up on Rafa for the rest of the NA summer hard court season. I am just not sure now.
I don’t know if it helps Rafa in Cincy by losing early in Montreal. Rafa usually benefits from match play to get his rhythm and timing and confidence. Cincy has not been a great tournament for Rafa. He doesn’t have an easy draw there.
I thought his draw opened up in Montreal and the opportunity was there for the taking to get the #1 ranking. At least Rafa realized that he blew a big opportunity.
NNY, it sure was on his racket. If he were playing like 20-25% better and still lost, I would not be that gutted. There were hardly any shots in the match hit by him which elicit those feelings when you see vintage Rafa. I think he was very poor and not playing well throughout the match was just added burden going into the TB.
vr,
I am glad that you are here to give your thoughts. People here know that I was really upset by this loss, by the way he lost it. I did not see this coming at all. I don’t know how he rebounds in Cincy because that hasn’t been the best conditions for him.
You said that you are not that worried. But I am concerned. Rafa gave that match away. That is not meant to disrespect Shap. But Rafa should have won that match.
Take heart. Even Rafa has off days sometimes.
So, is #NextGen finally here? As a dedicated Rafan I guess I should root for Federer to lose, but I’d just as soon he won. I’m not quite finished with #ThisGen yet. Rafa will be either #1 or #2 going into the USO, and either works for me! I’d surely have signed up for this year at the beginning of the year!
You have full perimission Ramara lol!! To be a Rafan and root against Roger makes perfect sense. I’m mixed on Rafa’s matches usually. If he plays a young gun I usually root for the young gun. If he plays just a solid player or a really good player that I’m just kind of neutral on such as a Berdych, Murray, Nole etc. I will root for Rafa. For example, I rooted for Rafa to win all his Wimbledon matches until he played Gilles but Gilles is one of my favs so that’s different I guess. On the other hand when Rafa loses early to someone I don’t really care about I feel pretty bad for him but because I’m not a fan I don’t really think about that loss for much longer which is understandable I would say as I’m not a Rafan.
Also same. I woulda signed up in a heartbeat. To see Rafa and Roger at the top of the game again is amazing.
I agree with you, VR. It may be disappointing for his fans to see him not winning certain matches that go the distance, but he has indeed come through a lot of hard-fought, long-distance matches this season. I also agree with you that in terms of mental hurdles, breaking his losing streak to Novak was absolutely massive. I think that win really gave him a good boost of confidence going forward in the clay season and beyond. So while his Montreal loss is surely disappointing, it doesn’t mean that all hope is lost for US Open. The fact that he is even in a position to get back to #1 is a testament to how far he has come in turning things around. Considering that after AO 2016 a lot of his fans seemed to be starting to question whether he would ever return to glory again, he has proven once and for all that if he has a couple of sub-par results, he is absolutely capable of turning things around. Between the two of them, Rafa and Fed have both had their respective moments between 2012 and 2017 where people started to write them off, and they both have proven now that they should not be written off… Obviously there will come a time where their bodies just aren’t able to consistently keep up with the field anymore, but If we’re lucky that time will not come for a while. So I’m just trying to enjoy their presence on tour while we still have them around. As for Rafa on HC, this year he was just two service holds away from winning his 4th HC major title on arguably the fastest hard court there has ever been at a major, and that was before he absolutely destroyed the field at RG. He hasn’t had any good HC results for a while before that 2017 AO, so I personally won’t read much into his pre-US Open results… Just me, though.
thanks for your thought, Kevin. I think he is going to try very hard in Cincy now but it is not the tournament to put your hopes on for us Rafa fans. Hoping for a great USO.
the Internet is saying Andy Murray has withdrawn from cincy. So Rafa is the new #1 isn’t he?!
No lol. Federer and Nadal are battling for it next week.
Benny, do you happen to know what the scenarios are for how Fed and Rafa can get to #1 in Cinci? I can’t seem to find anything on the web yet that gives the scenarios, assumingly because Montreal is not done yet and Fed is still in it. I’m just curious to know what the paths to #1 will be for Fed/Rafa, for both if Fed is runner-up in Montreal and if he wins Montreal. Someone out there must have the calculations… I could do them myself, but I’m feeling lazy. 😛
If Federer wins Montreal, then with Andy out, whoever advances further at Cinci between Rafa and Fed will be the new #1. (Andy loses 600 points from his final appearance last year).
If Federer loses the Montreal final, then heading into Cinci he will be in 3rd, 5 points behind Murray and 410 points behind Rafa. In that case, Rafa can secure #1 by making the Cinci final; Roger can secure #1 by winning the final over any other player. Regardless, Murray will be 3rd going into USO (if he plays), because Roger will receive an automatic 45 points at Cinci (even if he loses his first match), overtaking Andy for 2nd.
Sorry, and if Roger wins Montreal he is still 10 points behind Rafa, so if they both lose in the same round at Cinci, Rafa will be #1 at USO.
So I decided to stop being lazy and do the calculations myself. Joe- you forgot one small but important factor in your calculations… You forgot to subtract 90 points from Rafa’s total for making it to the 3rd round at Cinci last year. Therefore, if Federer loses the final in Montreal tomorrow, then Rafa will not be a lock for #1 simply by making the final. If Rafa makes the Cinci final, the Federer will still be #1 if he were to beat Rafa in the final.
Also if Federer loses Montreal final, he must then win the title to become #1 UNLESS Rafa only makes the Quarterfinals, which in that case Federer only needs to make the Final to get #1.
If Federer WINS Montreal, and you take away Rafa’s 90 points from Cinci last year, then Federer would actually be 80 points ahead of Rafa. Therefore, they lose in the same round at Cinci, then Federer will be #1. Therefore, in order for Rafa to get to #1 (if Fed wins Montreal), Rafa must go at least one round further than Fed to be #1 UNLESS Federer loses in the 2nd Round (1st Round Bye), which then Rafa would have to make the Quarterfinals.
Whether Federer wins Montreal or not, if Fedal face-off in the Cincinnati final, then the winner takes World #1!! Personally, I hope for that outcome! 🙂
I hope that clears things up, Joe. Thanks for the initial calculations.
Thanks, Kevin, for clearing up my oversight! It does really look as though Roger is in the driver’s seat for #1 at this point. And yes, it would be great to see it decided in the Cinci final.