Montpellier, Sofia, and Quito previews and predictions

February is for the diehard tennis fanatics. There is nothing (no 500s, no Masters 1000s, and certainly no slams) to whet the appetites of less appreciative fans, but there are…count ‘em up…a whopping 12 tournaments from now through the end of the month. That’s three every single week for those who are, in fact, counting. The madness begins on Monday in Montpellier, Sofia, and Quito, with David Goffin, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Stan Wawrinka, and Gael Monfils among those in action.

Open Sud de France

Where: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 501,345 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: David Goffin
2017 champion: Alexander Zverev (not playing)

Draw analysis: You will not see any 250-point draws much more lopsided than this one. The top quarter in Montpellier is home to Goffin, David Ferrer, Karen Khachanov, Julien Benneteau, and recent Pune champion Gilles Simon. This may be an especially unfortunate recipe for the top-seeded Goffin, who had to play a live fourth rubber in the first-round Davis Cup tie between Belgium and Hungary on Sunday (beat Marton Fucsovics in four sets). The world No. 7 will likely open against Simon (presumably on Thursday) before possibly running into Benneteau, who upset him at the Australian Open. Also in the top half of the Montpellier bracket are Richard Gasquet and Sydney title winner Daniil Medvedev—who have to go head-to-head in round one.

The other side is not entirely lacking intrigue. Dustin Brown and Nicolas Mahut are going head-to-head in a big-serving first-rounder, while Tsonga and Andrey Rublev are on a collision course for the quarterfinals. Benoit Paire and Mischa Zverev will open with a rematch of their 2017 U.S. Open five-setter, with the winner potentially moving on to meet No. 2 seed Lucas Pouille in the last eight.

First-round upset alert: (PR) John Millman over (8) Yuichi Sugita. Millman has to make a long trip from Australia, but he did not play in his team’s first-round Davis Cup tie against Germany. Sugita will be arriving from Japan after persevering through two five-setters (beat Andreas Seppi before losing the clinching point to Fabio Fognini on Sunday). Advantage: Millman. It will only help the Aussie that he is coming off a solid summer Down Under.

Hot: David Goffin, Andrey Rublev, Yuichi Sugita, Gilles Simon, Daniil Medvedev, John Millman

Cold: Lucas Pouille, Ricardas Berankis, Jeremy Chardy, Mischa Zverev

Semifinal predictions: David Goffin over Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Benoit Paire

Final: Tsonga over Goffin

[polldaddy poll=9931805]

Sofia Open

Where: Sofia, Bulgaria
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 501,345 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Stan Wawrinka
2017 champion: Grigor Dimitrov (not playing)

Draw analysis: Dimitrov was expected to defend his Sofia title in front of the home crowd, but he became a late withdrawal due to a shoulder issue. The world No. 4 is out; Wawrinka is in. That is far from an even trade these days, and it is one that the rest of the field will certainly take. After all, the 32-year-old Swiss had not played since Wimbledon last summer until he showed up at the Australian Open, where he struggled mightily in both a win over Ricardas Berankis and a loss to Tennys Sandgren.

With Wawrinka vulnerable, the top half of this draw is wide open for the likes of Viktor Troicki, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Joao Sousa. Solid on just about all surfaces, Sousa has captured each of his two career ATP titles on indoor hard courts. A whole host of veterans will battle it out on the other side of the Sofia bracket, which is home to Gilles Muller, Andreas Seppi, Mikhail Youzhny, Marcos Baghdatis, Robin Haase, and Adrian Mannarino.

First-round upset alert: Lukas Lacko over (8) Evgeny Donskoy. Donskoy was one of just five players to beat Roger Federer in 2017, a feat he accomplished 11 months ago in Dubai. He has not done much since, to say the least. Lacko leads this head-to-head series 1-0 at the ATP level and 3-1 if you include Challengers and Futures events. The Slovak recently took down Milos Raonic at the Australian Open; it’s true that Raonic is a shadow of his former self right now, but that is still a decent win.

Hot: Maximilian Marterer, Andreas Seppi

Cold: Stan Wawrinka, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Denis Istomin, Sergiy Stakhovsky

Semifinal predictions: Joao Sousa over Viktor Troicki and Gilles Muller over Marcos Baghdatis

Final: Muller over Sousa

[polldaddy poll=9931809]

Ecuador Open

Where: Quito, Ecuador
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $501,345
Points: 250

Top seed: Pablo Carreno Busta
Defending champion: Victor Estrella Burgos

Draw analysis: The Victor Estrella Burgos Invitational is now in its fourth years of existence. So far, no one else has been invited to the winner’s circle. Estrella Burgos owns three career ATP titles and all three have come in Quito—in 2015, 2016, and again in 2017. If ever there was a single-tournament specialist on the ATP Tour, it’s Estrella Burgos at the Ecuador Open—or more like the Ecuardo Closed To Everyone Except Estrella Burgos. Now 37 years old, however, the Dominic Republic native is struggling down at 87th in the rankings so the door may be ajar for someone else to walk through and take the title. Estrella Burgos could face four consecutive lefties prior to the final—Thomaz Bellucci, Gerald Melzer, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and either Horacio Zeballos or Thiago Monteiro. The third-seeded and blond-haired Monfils, however, may have something to say about that in the bottom half of the bracket.

A softer top side of the draw includes No. 1 seed Pablo Carreno Busta, who was a disaster the last two months of 2017 after making a run to the U.S. Open semifinals. But the Spaniard played well in Melbourne (fourth-round appearance) and picked up a huge doubles victory this past Saturday in Spain’s Davis Cup win over Great Britain. Carreno Busta could be tested by Ivo Karlovic in the Quito quarters and Paolo Lorenzi in the semis.

First-round upset alert: Thiago Monteiro over (5) Horacio Zeballos. This battle between fellow left-handers looks like a 50-50 prospect. Zeballos is favored as the No. 66 in the world to Monteiro’s No. 117, but the Argentine is not getting any younger at 32 years old and he has not done much of anything on the court in recent times. Although both men are stellar on the red stuff, Monteiro is more of a clay-court specialist then Zeballos.

Hot: Paolo Lorenzi, Yannick Hanfmann

Cold: Victor Estrella Burgos, Ivo Karlovic, Ernesto Escobedo, Pablo Andujar, Tommy Robredo, Thomaz Bellucci

Semifinal predictions: Pablo Carreno Busta over Paolo Lorenzi and Victor Estrella Burgos over Thiago Monteiro

Final: Estrella Burgos over Carreno Busta

[polldaddy poll=9932275]

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!