A blockbuster showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal is on the cards for Saturday in Monte-Carlo. A much more surprising semifinal pits Tomas Berdych against Gael Monfils.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Djokovic and Nadal will be squaring off for the 43rd time in their careers when they collide all too early in the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters semifinals on Saturday afternoon. The head-to-head series stands at 23-19 in favor of Nadal, who is a dominant 14-4 against Djokovic on clay. They have not faced each other since the 2014 French Open final, won by the Spaniard 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4. Djokovic, however, is a much more respectable 4-5 in their last nine clay-court meetings and one of those five losses came in a 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7(3), 9-7 thriller in the 2013 Roland Garros semis. Overall, the Serb has won four of their last five encounters.
Comfortably ranked No. 1 in the world, Djokovic has been beating up not just on Nadal in recent times. Everyone his been at his mercy, including 15 consecutive opponents and 28 of 30 during this 2015 campaign. So far in Monte-Carlo, Djokovic has rolled over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Andreas Haider-Maurer, and Marin Cilic. Nadal cruised past Lucas Pouille before needing three-setters against both John Isner and David Ferrer. Friday’s all-Spanish quarterfinal battle lasted two hours and 44 minutes, longer than the other three quarterfinal matches combined. The word No. 5 is going to be counted out as a result of his modest current form and tough tests the past few days, but he will raise his level when required. Nadal’s eight Monte-Carlo titles and 14-4 clay-court record against Djokovic will give the underdog–yes, the underdog–confidence he has not enjoyed since last year’s French Open.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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(6) Tomas Berdych vs. (14) Gael Monfils
Monfils was not even initially entered in Monte-Carlo, but he asked for a late wild card and the decision to play has paid off in a big way. After scraping past Andrey Kuznetsov in three sets, the 18th-ranked Frenchman beat an in-form Alexandr Dolgopolov, upset Roger Federer in straights, then hammered Grigor Dimitrov 6-1, 6-3 on Friday.
Berdych has not dropped a single set while taking out Sergiy Stakhovsky, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Milos Raonic. The sixth-seeded Czech’s road to the last four was made even more routine by Raonic’s retirement at 5-2 in the opening set of their quarterfinal clash. Berdych is leading head-to-head series with Monfils 5-1, including 2-0 already this season. But the world No. 8 benefited from an indoor hard court in Rotterdam and Monfils had to retire in Miami after falling on his hip. Monfils is looking like a different player now, especially on clay. He has been moving his opponents all over everywhere and he will do the same to Berdych, whose mediocre movement is at its worst on the slow stuff.
Pick: Monfils in 2
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finally got a working link!
Rafa is playing fine tennis at the moment and not allowing djokovic much rhythm.one thing that he continiues to do well is length on his backhand! even from deep positions, he is generating great depth.
VAMOS! massive forehadn DTL!! get the break here!
These two kids at at least playing some great tennis!! Rafa is holding his own a least and their drop shots are entertaining!! Vamos!
Novak playing great too. I am soo impressed with rafa’s groundstrokes at the moment because of the depth he is getting. He has survived this 10 min long game . Both are drawing each other to the net by playing drop shots! Novak did exceptionally well to hitting passing shot winners on two of rafa’s drop shots.
Rafa at least is fighting but he needs yo hold when it counts, he gets broken way too easily these days. He should have won this set esp after the break but he could not hold, too predictable these days!
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good stats for Rafa, including serve stats
ok that turnaround was quick. Rafa just could not convert break points and novak did that :/
Rafa playing at a good level but there are a few things he is not doing what a peak-form rafa would do. His backhand has good length but he still does not have enough confidence to give it less air and make it more penetrative. Plus, he does not quite have enough confidence on his forehand inside-out. Djokovic is expecting those off forehands and because rafa is not hitting them well enough, djokovic is able to direct them up the line.
Ok rest of the comments later…it has resumed…
I agree about Rafa being unable to convert break points. This is a problem that has plagued him this year. If you don’t take those chances against Novak, then things can turn very quickly. That was a long game and Rafa was putting a lot of pressure on Novak, but he ultimately held his serve. Then I sensed the break coming with Rafa. That’s all it took.
I think Rafa played well and had his chances to take that first set. But Novak was just a bit better in the key moments and did enough to get it done.
I think the stats show how close it was in the first set. Rafa is holding his own with second serve points won at 50% to Novak at 55%.
Rafa fought off two break points and held to start the second set.
Rafa doing a fine job on his service games but he is making it too easy for novak in return games in set 2.
Intensity on rafa’s strokes has also tapered off a little
Attitude has been positive… we know how important that is for rafa..that is a good hold and he finished that with a smash winner! must have felt good.
I hope novak’s first serve % drops now and rafa is able to string together a good run. You are the underdog right now but you can do it , rafa . Come on!
Novak has hit 56% of his backhands DTL! WOW! this is supreme control esp given the fact that he hits a lot of those backhands off rafa’s mammoth CC forehand
THAT is what I call a CC backhand, rafa! WOAH. Come on….. He could have done better in the previous game. … anyway, smooth sailing to 40-0… hold here and keep trying your best.
STEP UP THE COURT , RAFA. Summon the confidence…
Shit, 40-30! no deuce please!
NOOO!! not from 40-0!!! NO! SAVE IT
WOWW whattttt a save!! how’s that for confidence!!!
Djokovic has been slowly breaking down rafa’s backhand…
best serve of the match on the most crucial point ! ace!
Would be too much to ask to come back from here :/ He could have closed out the game, sighhh.
Just want to see some fight from rafa now. His backhand has been pummeled by novak and he has not been able to do enough damage with his forehand,
gosh he was 40-0 up there. The same happened in Monaco 2013 final…
killing it with the predictions the past few days….good thing I’ve been fading most of your selections. I could see picking Monfils or Rafa to win today, but picking both was obviously a little too cute on your part. Possibly wishful thinking with the Rafa pick, but with the way the Joker has played this year you knew it was going to be a practically insurmountable task. Big Berd and the Joker coming through sealed the deal for my parlay, and has paid off handsomely.
Also, Novak wins tomorrow losing fewer than 7 games. This tourney is done like dinner, and it is merely noon time here in the states.
Top calls, Curtman. How do you see Roland Garros panning out? The rafans seem to be taking more positives from MC 2015 than last year; I just see a second loss in three clay events played, and a fifth clay defeat inside the last 53 weeks. Not great when we consider he’s lost just 26 in his entire career. Plus it is now fully three years since he won MC – an event he dominated like no other man at any tournament in tennis history.
True, Nadal needed to ‘see’ Djokovic’s form ahead of the Big One; and never let us forget that he may not need to go through the Serb in order to vie for la décima (remember Martina’s sole loss in 1983 was to the unheralded Kathy Horvath in RG, R4, facilitating yet another Chrissie win); but goodness me, he barely landed a blow against the runaway #1 today. Djokovic won 15 more points, but Nadal served nine more points than his nemesis, quite a gap when both players served a total of nine times each. Of course, all will be forgiven if he wins in Paris. But after today I can only hope he doesn’t have to meet Djokovic there.
You’re missing one thing though, last year Rafa looked much worse during the clay season before he kicked Nole’s arse at RG for the… God I’ve lost count.
Keep drinking the koolaid fedfans I mean “Nole” fans. How many times!!!!
It is too early to say for certain, once the draw comes out we will obviously have a clearer picture of how things pan out. At this point in time I admit Rafa was nowhere near the level of Novak for most of his match. The Joker is looking like he could work over anyone in the game right now, on any surface, which is a scary thought. I think it is easier to take positives from this match because on many points you saw what some would consider classic rafa, yet he was woefully inconsistent from point to point and still seemed to let the mental side of things get to him here, which he can ill afford when playing against the best in the game today.
I can see him cruising the quarterfinals without much trouble, but if he has to face Federer or Djokovic at any point in the tournament it won’t be any picnic. At this point, it seems difficult to put your faith, or your money on the king of clay. I feel he is and will be using the doubt from others as fuel, but his own doubts are what have led him to where he stands today. He needs to go out there and just rip it, not worry about the result, and try to have fun while doing it. Otherwise, he is in danger of falling further into what I refer to as the Tiger Woods syndrome.
I will pick Nadal to make the semi-final, but lose to Djokovic. In my mind, anyone other than the joker is fair game to be a victim to Rafa at RG.
Being left-handed myself I enjoy rooting for any left-handed player. especially the best one in the game in my generation.
I hope he makes the final, but I just don’t see him being able to come away with the title this year. I actually feel like he might put up a better result at wimbledon, though I have nothing whatsoever to base that claim on, merely a hunch. How do you see it playing out @forsureheisthefavouritecommanoquestionmark and @Hawkeye63
CURTMAN3000 says:
April 21, 2015 at 8:49 am,
___ what I refer to as the Tiger Woods syndrome___
======================================================
The Tiger Woods syndrome was (is?): mistresses.
Tiger Woods syndrome is when a great athlete, one who has in the past dominated their competition, suddenly loses the relentless self-confidence which has allowed them to excel to their current standing and begins to start questioning every move they make and over analyzing the situation until it becomes impossible for them to maintain a positive mindset throughout their match and they become a shell of their former figure. I don’t see this happening anywhere near as seriously as it has with Tiger, but it is certainly interesting to see how greatly one’s mindset dictates the outcome of the event.
CURTMAN3000 says:
April 21, 2015 at 9:59 am
___Tiger Woods syndrome is when a great athlete, one who has in the past dominated their competition, suddenly loses the relentless self-confidence___
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TW lost more than his self-confidence after his extra-marital affairs were revealed.
Wikipedia: ¤¤ From December 2009 to early April 2010, Woods took leave from professional golf to focus on his marriage after he admitted infidelity, but he and his wife Elin Nordegren eventually divorced. His many extra-marital indiscretions were revealed by several different women, through many worldwide media sources. This was followed by a loss of golf form, and his ranking gradually fell to a low of No. 58 in November 2011. He ended a career-high win-less streak of 107 weeks when he captured the Chevron World Challenge in December 2011. After winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational on March 25, 2013, he ascended to the No.1 ranking once again, holding the top spot until May 2014. Woods had back disc surgery in April 2014, and has struggled since to regain his dominant form. ¤¤
I am curious augustan08, I’m wondering if you can tell me why you call out the transgressions of Tiger Woods while failing to recognize that Mirka was correct to call out Stan the Cry Baby for not living up to his commitments as a family man. Why do you come to the Cry Baby’s defence? Mirka is right, he is a boy, not a man.
Curtman3000, to answer your question, Novak is dominating year after year but not at the French Open. He looked better in 2011 but lost to Federer. He has a 5-2 record on clay against Nadal in best of three since that time, yet Nadal is 3-0 h2h at the FO. Nadal’s confidence was extremely low for most of the clay season leading up to the French, yet he still won at the French while not at his best.
I put it down to the difference between Masters and slams, typically hotter weather in June, mental strength and Rafa simply being better on Chartrier.
Nole is 0-6 vs Nadal at RG.
I pick Nadal at the French.
Nice to see some tennis talk from real tennis fans such as yourself Curtman3000! 🙂
Yes, what you are saying about Woods is true. I was by no means comparing the circumstances that led to his poor play to how Rafa is playing right now. If you compared the two at the moment Rafa is ten times more confident and capable of succeeding. I was merely comparing the similarities between over analyzing, lack of self confidence, and success on the court. Sure, Tiger had all of that happen in 09-10 but what about now when the media and fans have forgiven him? He is no longer the albatross of Golf, he is by many beloved and considered the GOAT by some, yet he still cant seem to find any type of rhythm. It is no longer about his ‘scandal’ it is about his lack of ability on the golf course. You talk about Tiger having surgery and having to return to the course after months off, which is more than comparable to Rafa’s return this past year.
What I was saying is that if Rafa continues to struggle to find his consistency, he could be in a bit of hot water with not only fans, but the media coming around with talk of his reign of dominance over. You cannot deny that after what he said in his press conference after his loss to verdasco in Miami he has some problems with confidence. He talked about being too nervous for many of the points, due to the expectations and pressure he puts on himself to win. If he loses a few matches this summer to players who have no business holding court against him, the confidence issues could really bubble up.
He was less confident last year. This year he is already playing better at Mote Carlo compared to last year.
He got what he needed from Monte Carlo – to feel Nole’s level again before Roland Garros, to improve his form and find confidence.
Winning Roland Garros is about peaking at the right time, something Nadal consistently does better than Djokovic year after year.
And therein lies the difference.
April 21, 2015 at 12:19 pm
___Mirka was correct to call out Stan the Cry Baby for not living up to his commitments as a family man___
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What??? Someone here is capable of constructing more IMAGINARY stories than those to whom It’s their bread and butter! 😆
https://tenngrand.com/social/player-pages/non-big-4/comment-page-10/#comment-190134
Thank you hawkeye, I appreciate being able to have serious yet civil with other fans who have more knowledge than I. Having seen the stats you have regarding Nole at the French I would definitely have to reconsider my prediction. Head to Head is the be all end all, and regardless of his current form, Nole will absolutely have those numbers in the back of his mind while preparing for the potential matchup with Rafa. It would be impossible for him to completely disregard past events, as beating Rafa there is one of the very few mountains Nole has yet to reach the summit of.
I certainly hope Nadal continues to improve his play as the year goes on. In my opinion, tennis is best when the greats are at their best. I am sure this is something that most true fans of the sport think as well. as many on this site say, vamos Rafa!
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@augusta08, April 21, 2015 at 10:37 am
just wanted to respond to your post on tiger woods syndrome…great post! I myself were going to say that this syndrome is caused by Woods being disgraced in public with his infidelity and affairs that astonished the whole world and caused him losing the image of a sportsman whom youngsters looked up to…he even lost his millions worth sponsors…
In any way it is by no means comparable with Rafa and it certainly has no similarities with Rafa’s situation…it is such a shame that people do these ridiculous insinuations…it’s rather naïve and uninformed comment…